I bought more at $10.70 today. Sold half already for quick $.50. I have a pretty big core position that I started around $12 and bought more on the way down. I certainly would not be caught dead shorting this right now. Upgrade yesterday, new position for another big hedgy, management buying, and 30%+ short interest. It's also acting good in bad markets.
Fundamentally this stock is not very good at all, but it's the equivalent of fighting the fed over the last few years. Fundamentals temporarily don't matter, but I wouldn't hold this for the long-term. I'm looking to exit between $13 and $14. If I miss a huge upside move I won't be too upset. This debt, this industry, and this management does not seem like a good long-term play.
Netflix doesn't have money to pay DIsney for streaming ESPN. Although Netflix seems to be all the rave right now, they don't have any cash and already have a lot of obligations for content already. Also, Disney doesn't have the cash to buy Netflix. Have you seen Netflix market cap. You could buy Viacomm, AMC, Lionsgate, and Dreamworks and still have a lot of cash left for what Netflix is being valued at. Right now Netflix is trading on 2017 earnings. If you added a 15-20% premium you would be talking about 2020 or later earnings.
I don't see why DIS and FOX don't crush NFLX by posting their best content on HULU. The people are going to go to where the content is. Right now the bar is pretty low with NFLX having the best content, which isn't really that great.
I don't think this has anything to do with the analyst. It almost seems as though someone knows about something coming soon. I wouldn't doubt if we hear about a price increase in the next day or so. This is up nearly $70 today. That move is bigger than most companies have on a huge earnings beat. The volume has been heavy too. I am putting a very small short position at $122, but will keep it on a very short leash. I have been burned before by NFLX on moves like this. The longs have been right the entire time and that's just a fact. The exuberance is fascinating.
Right back on track. Sold the calls I bought yesterday and now I have a gain, plus I have a lower cost basis on the remaining options I have. Thanks for the bad selloff. I'm sure the same is going to happen with FB seeing as how it has been upgraded about 10 times to targets in the 100's since yesterday. VLO is going over $70 in the next few weeks IMO.
Looks like no one else cares about this stock. I was hoping to see this pop about 10% tomorrow on the ER. I guess this board is a good representation of why no shares really traded in the AH after the report. There was a huge spike for about 30 seconds on huge volume today, but it came right back down.
Not a very funny joke. I'm happy that presented this joke though since I sold half of my position yesterday and now I will be able to increase my position even more on this sell off. I think this will be pushing new highs again in the next few weeks, but I seem to be wrong quite a bit. Had you told me their report in advance I would have thought we would be up $2.
Their spending in the past has led to such horrible investments as whatsapp and Instagram. Those two investments have panned out. I think Wall Street definitely knows better than Zuckerberg how they should spend money. Maybe buy back stock like CAT and IBM since that is working so well. The problem is that they aren't spending enough. They need to spend like AMZN and NFLX to have negative earnings. If they did that they would be trading at $200 per share. You can't speculate on a company that has real earnings and profits. Maybe an activist can get involved and force stock buy backs, increased dividends, and cut spending. Then this thing could be considered old tech.
Means the market should go up another couple hundred points. Facebook beats and drops 5% so far, but they will probably take it up to close to $100 in AH since nothing makes sense anymore. Misses = 10% move to the upside, and beats equal downside moves. When you look at the revenues on these mega cap companies and then look at their market cap, it's hard to picture this can go on forever. Earn less than $1 billion and you get a $200 billion market cap. I'm sure these food stocks like PNRA and CMG will continue to go up because the whole economy can fall apart and yet people will still buy over priced food. It's working well for Whole Foods tonight. This market is hilarious.
Last week you were saying $600 plus in the next few days on AMZN. How is that looking? You are short NFLX, which I agree with, but how can you be long a company like this with nothing but negatives ahead? This concept of a 2.0 is nothing like McDonalds or SBUX. This has always been a place that only appeals to people with a lot of discretionary income, and nothing will change that. I would consider myself middle class, and I don't like to pay $40 for a few sandwiches for my family of 4. They are not that much better than others in the same space that cost $10-$15 less. My target in the next few weeks is $190, and long-term low 100's. Next quarter will seal the deal.
Agree 100%. The apauling part is that they are missing when commodity prices are at there lows. Most have already put in price increases as well. What happens when energy prices go up,even a little. Companies like CMG and PNRA have a long fall. If not for low float and high PPS these things would get taken to the shed. I've started to build short positions on several of these names while starting small positions on a handful of energy stocks. Probably early on both trades, but I have a long time to wait.
I just went short. I have never shorted this stock, but after reading the ER I can't see why this stock will go higher, especially in a market that I believe will continue to go down. Look at TWTR, YELP, and AKAM in AH. GILD should go higher because they crushed it, however, they are a one off since they have an exclusive drug that makes them a boat load of money. Overall when you look at consumer confidence along with some other recent reports, things don't look very good.
I shorted a few hundred shares at $204 in AH, and hope to cover at $180 really soon. Most of these AH rips have gone down a lot over the following few days. See GOOG, NFLX, AMZN, and even TWTR today.
Missed the calls. I had sold $540 calls and covered them at $25. I had a buy on the same contract for $12 on the long side. I got on the bid and thought I picked them up, but missed. It ran up $11 right after. I think you're right about taking the day off. I still think it will run up going into the close.
I'm looking to minimize losses to about $16k. I'm hoping to make them more like $12k, but hope is not a good strategy. If it drops below $570 I may buy a few calls and try to get back a few grand. I would like to see it open at or around $575 and quickly get down to $565. I don't think this will happen, but it would be nice. Then you may have people selling, especially those that bought in the am over $590. I still think this closes close to $600 based on how GOOG and NFLX traded after their earnings.
I'm short and would have covered at $578 if I could have. These upgrades with the price targets will make this thing go,up all day. As much as I hate to say it, this will probably be over $600 at some point today. I think it may touch under $570 for a few minutes today, but I don't expect much reprieve. China doesn't seem to be scaring anyone either. I will have to lick my wounds and may even have to buy a few calls to try to get back a few bucks.
I've been here far more than I like. I will cover right away most likely since I anticipate this will run all day. It will hurt, but I will establish a different short position with the ammo I have left, most likely in AH when the pain is at it's max. I hope to side step about 20 points, or another $8k in losses. If I get luck enough, which I'm not expecting to see this thing in the $550's in the am I will buy a little on the long end to minimize damage. With the margin call message looming I won't stand a chance during the regular session.
I was dumb for thinking that this wouldn't pop more than $60 after seeing CMG, NFLX, and GOOG. I was lucky to not get murdered on those huge pops. I still remember GOOG smoking me for about $50k when it went up drastically over $1000 before split about a year or so ago. I also knew how bad CMG and NFLX could hurt me. Truthfully, I knew this could get me too, I just couldn't wrap my brain around this stock going up 100% in less than a year with that monster market cap. The way this trades you would have thought they IPO'd this two years ago and that it's run by Elon Musk, Ghost of Steve Jobs, Reed Hastings, and Bezos. Hats off to winners that rode this thing up.
I'm not worried about people on the yahoo message board buying since they represent probably less than .000000001% of the float and a good portion are probably paper traders anyways. When you constantly read people saying they bought 100 calls and made millions is a joke. If that happens for me I will be out partying for a celebration. I'm certainly not worried about people on here hurting me tomorrow, it's the institutions that know they have the shorts by the balls. Paper traders won't hurt me, just the smart funds who got this right.
Do not short in the morning unless you are looking for a very small decline. Some profit taking will happen, but then shorts like me that are getting scorched will have to sell. It closed at around $565. In the morning it will likely be $580 or higher based on how the other momo's have performed with these big moves. It may trade down $5 or so, but then it will go much higher especially with weekly options. I so hope I'm wrong, but unfortunately I won't be. I would love to see it open in the low $550's and drop into the $540's, but that is just hopium. I will likely cover on any little dip and ride the long side up as it climbs all day. There is going to be countless upgrades with absurd price targets, CNBC will bring every bull on, and they will talk about it alllllllllll day. It will start with super pumper Cramer with some target 100 or 200 about where it is now. If you absolutely must short then way until the last minute of the day, or better yet AH tomorrow night when the last of the margin calls is filled. This will be a blood bath for shorts like me. I shorted $540 calls and will be punished accordingly. Longs win this one big time. It will add fuel to all other MOMO's tomorrow. Any one who is long CMG, FB, TSLA, GOOG, LNKD, and all the rest will have a great day.
Stock was trading in the $721-$722 in am. Opens and goes down to $721.60 and then goes up $5 in a few trades in less than a minute. The level 2 looked like someone was forced to cover buying at any cost. Maybe Gundlach decided to cover. I would be shocked if he hadn't already started covering unless he likes to talk down his book.