200 scripts each week, then all of the sudden the hammer drops, $20 billions buyout announcement !!!! That will hurt very badly for most shorts who are not hedged.
then I told them I wanted afrezza, and they said they couldn't issue any script. What the heck? 6 weeks out and none of these guys have access to Afrezza. What kind of launch is this?
that lasts 10 days to 2 weeks. Hence if they started giving those out week 2-3 to familiarize docs, we should start seeing perscriptions starting now.
how long does each sample pack last? The conversion from samplers to users will be a wealth of information for SNY to secretly buyout mnkd without causing a stir or bidding war.
week 1: only patients who knew about Afrezza prelaunch would have Afrezza.
Week 2: ONLY those docs who knew about Afrezza prelauch can write scripts for their patients.
week3: Initial drug reps teaching docs about Afrezza and setting up dinner presentations
week4: First drug rep dinner on Afrezza
week5: Second drug rep dinner on Afrezza.
Hockey stick pattern
Sell mnkd shares ONLY after full advertisement campaign and failure, or sell them in a few years in triple digits area. Doctors are generally honest people; they would not boast about drugs that do not have the claims that they boast about. The reviews from some of these docs who are users of Afrezza are indicative of a blockbuster status.
i am guessing the appointment may be just to get the pft done but it can also be done immediately after scripts, 1-2 weeks after isn't going to change pft.
in the event they can't get patients to try samples or scripts, then they can still bail without a huge commitment. If they can determine that patients like the samples and convert to perscriptions, it will secretly become a buyout without having to have huge sells, because they know that once they advertise they can generate a floodgate of interest in Afrezza.
i wouldn't be too arrogant if I was to hold a short position. Be prepared to wake up to a buyout price; that is the short's biggest fear.
Buyout price: how much is Afrezza? + Technosphere? + inhaler?
I am a very shrewd investor; I have eyed mnkd since FDA approval and I think the reward is the sky and risk is minimal at this range. I may have been lucky to have waited this long without the price trading higher. GLTA longs.
There is a reason for this slow launch; it was not intended to have massive demand. For one, manufacturing isn't capable of handling the demand and second is that SNY wants a full buyout. They don't want Afrezza to get too hot which could lead to competitors making bigger offers. SNY stated that they needed higher samples than expected; this suggests great interest but will the patients convert to perscription? How long does each sample last? This is the expected time from sample to script conversion, plus 1-2 weeks for scheduling appointment and getting Afrezza.