Dr. Kim flatly said they'd need to raise at least $100M for a P3. That's about 15% dilution at $10/share.
According to what I've read and heard, not enough money in it to make it worthwhile?
Still, the exposure would be more than just money. I'd like to see it.
Yes, the topline data was lackluster: 49.5% vs. 52% for the primary endpoint. They "missed," but didn't want to admit it and spun it differently. That might be what the lawsuit is about.
They are currently "slicing and dicing" the P2 data, looking for sub-group cohort data which would yield a good P3 protocol. That's the whole purpose of a "peer-reviewed" publication.
Now the question is, "who" ordered the peer-reviewed publication? The FDA? A potential partner?
At any rate, I believe we'll eventually get to a P3 trial, whether it's 3100 or 3112. Here's to hoping in 2015.
I hold 100K shares and share the overall sentiment here.
Short-term pain long-term gain?
All bets are off on the latter.
With no REAL catalysts for the remainder of this year, this stock won't see $10 until EOY and perhaps into 2015.
They will want to pump it up some to make effective use of the shelf and to minimize dilution.
At $10/share, INO will be adding about 10M shares to the float sometime next year. That's a minimum 15% dilution from the current float, maybe a bit more. Not terrible, but still a dilution.
Long-term, still a great speculative company. When we get our first P3 trial approved by the FDA, there will be much celebration in the Street!
I'm in agreement with fourms_2000 on this. The tone of Dr. Kim was decidedly defensive today.
I want more transparency about the "need" for a peer-reviewed article about the P2 results. Did the FDA order this? Did potential partners request this? Did INO choose this on their own, so that sub-group data could be better vetted? Why won't it be published until 2015, further delaying talks with the FDA about a P3 trial, now scheduled for 2016? Lots of questions, and very few answers.
Markets don't like questions and uncertainty. Hence, the sell-off today.
I do agree, Sac, that the shelf could have been raised as a bargaining chip with big pharma. But that's sheer conjecture. The facts currently speak differently, as Dr. Kim indicated explicitly that at least $100M would need to be raised to fund a P3 trial.
And with all of that in mind, the market is not acting irrationally.
It's acting as most markets would do, given this CC.
For one, I expected a MUCH longer call. A lot of it was boilerplate.
Why no mention of the h-TERT trial (and yes, I know it was given "lip service" in the PR). To me and many others, this is the most important trial INO might undertake. Will it too be delayed into 2015 instead of 2014?
I'm OK with being enthusiastic about a stock, and there is a lot still be be enthusiastic about with INO. However, the timeline has now been pushed out, and the CEO indicates that at least $100M in dilution will need to occur to fund a P3. Not what many of us were expecting on today's call.
But if the pumpers want to continue to delude themselves, I won't stop them...
Also, if you want to "take me on" objectively on ANY of my posts, have at it.
Warning--it won't end well for you as a debater.
Nope, you haven't been on this board long enough to know me.
I respond to facts, not conjecture.
I'm listed on the certified "list of longs" and I've not sold a single share. In fact, I'm sure that I own more than you.
If you can't stand reality, go back to class.
I couldn't agree more with these statements. Great science, great company.
It's just going to take a bit more time and some additional dilution to "go it alone." That's all.
It's not the shorts.
If you listened to the conference call you would understand why "investors" were disappointed in today's call.
Near ZERO possibility of a marketing partner until 2015. P2 results need to be peer reviewed first. Either by order of the FDA or by request of such partner.
At least not until 2015 at the earliest.
No partnership until P2 results are peer reviewed. Throw any chance of partnership away for 2014. Anyone care to debate? Bring it on.
NO mention of the h-TERT trial for 2014 in the CC (yes, it received "lip service" in the PR). Will it be delayed, too? That's the trial many of us are MOST interested in.
Long-term, a fantastic company with fantastic science. But it depends on one's definition of "long-term."
Not sure now. We've others say mid-2015. Would need to raise the money before then.
You didn't listen to the CC? Blasphemy! :)
That explains why you said there was ZERO bad news. You didn't hear any news at all! LOL! (But I know you must be kidding. You certainly listened, right?)
I agree, and yes, but they say they must raise at least $100M for the P3 trial.