My guess is 15-20%. Much of the approval is already baked in, or we would see a much larger pop, IMHO.
The wild card is the short interest, and how that plays out.
It's impossible to predict the exact price action, but my guess is that we will see $20-25 very soon.
Yep, this is an off-topic post.
I suppose you're equating a long position as a single call option. I can see the analogy. But a long position is not a call option. Two different things. No worries. We can agree to disagree.
OK, back to our regularly scheduled program.
ONCS, up, up and away!
What, a phone call? ;)
Seriously, what equity has call options priced that high to allow such a high profit on a SINGLE call? I know of none. Would love to be educated on this one...
It depends. I bought and sold 25 calls. The total commission was $76.55.
Including commissions, my basis was $913.25 and the payout including commissions was $1,836.70, for a two-day return of just over 100% (101.1%).
I call that a "short-term double." :)
KERX at leas temporarily crushed it today.
I bought Sept $20 calls for 0.35 on Friday and sold them for 0.75 today.
I personally believe a fair amount is baked in, but I still think we might see a $20+ pop on FDA approval, followed by a "sell on the news." They are a prime buyout candidate too; hence, the pop today. A buyout would be in the mid-to-high 20s, IMHO.
Mensa--what are your thoughts on KERX?
FDA approval for Zerenex a slam dunk? Already baked into the price? (It's already approved in Japan and selling?)
Potential buyout already baked into the price?
What are your thoughts about a buyout multiple?
Heck, we're barely sitting at a $100M market cap now. Do you see something between $500M and $1B? Of course, a lot depends on "when" the buyout occurs. What kind of time horizon do you see?
I'm thinking that this is the trial/partnership we really want... Still could be very much on the table.
Isn't this the partnership we want?
A combo trial using MK-3475 and our technology?
ONCS, in the short-term, has a higher percentage upside than INO.
That said, INO should also be getting some catalysts later in Q4. I own both, but more ONCS now.
I hope it happens in two weeks, Fur.
I'm in the process of freeing-up funds for another 250K shares. But it might take me close to two weeks to have the liquidity.
Among a few things, I plan to:
1. Buy a new car
2. Buy a new motorcycle
3. Fund an Alaskan cruise for my wife and I.
4. Re-invest the remaining funds in one or more other biotechs.
2014 has been a good year and 2015 may be a LOT better.
If I were trading just $1M/year I'd be living very well.
I mean, who cares if I "had" to "work" 300-400 hours a year?
Ahh, so we have some riders in the group. Awesome.
I'm looking forward to next Spring, on a new bike financed in whole or in part by ONCS!