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LIN TV Corp. Message Board

caminocasa07 135 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 2, 2015 9:23 AM Member since: Jan 11, 2007
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  • caminocasa07 by caminocasa07 Jul 2, 2015 9:23 AM Flag

    Although risks are ever present (see risk factors- SEC flings) IMHO reward risk ratio is favorable
    with stock currently at $6.94. A lot of end of quarter cross currents and it seems quite possible
    that some high frequency traders, momentum players and trading oriented
    hedge funds may have become involved following the very good first quarter earnings
    report, and this has created considerably share price volatility.

    My guesstimates for EPS---Note these would be untaxed due to substantial NOL carry forwards--
    2015 $.60
    2016 $.72
    2017 $.84

    Personally, would like to see significant stock buyback over next 2-3 years which
    would enhance EPS and also help to cover option program for key executives and
    employees without causing dilution---Not everyone would agree with this.

    Jerry and the team seem to be doing an excellent job as related to our Internet of Things
    initiatives where we seem to be gaining traction---

    Second quarter results to be reported in mid-August should compare very favorably to
    last year when company reported EPS of $.06 on Revenues of $23,100,000---I am
    currently guesstimating EPS of twelve to fourteen cents on Revenues of $27,500,000

    Continue with due diligence efforts and GLTA

  • Reply to

    BSQR TRANSFORMATION

    by caminocasa07 Jun 20, 2015 1:21 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 25, 2015 2:10 PM Flag

    Oops--Better expressed as:
    the "Market" anthropomorphically is "saying" that BSQR is worth $7.40 per share.

  • Reply to

    BSQR TRANSFORMATION

    by caminocasa07 Jun 20, 2015 1:21 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 25, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    Thanks

    Although there are still plenty of risks with BSQR---IMHO there will be PE multiple
    expansion taking place over the next few years---How rapidly, and to what degree are unknowns.

    Much will depend on:

    (1) ultimate investor perception of how rapidly earnings per share
    can grow off an estimated base of $.60 +/-?? in current 2015 year.

    (2 How sustainable will that growth rate be----

    In any event Thursday June 25th 2015--the "Market" --anthropomorphically is
    "saying" that BSQR is worth $7.40---
    Adjusting for at least $1.40 that could be considered EXCESS (Over and above
    what is needed to run the company) CASH-------The Adjusted price currently is $6.00---
    Thus we are trading at approximately 10 X Est. 2015 EPS. of $.60 (As adjusted for
    excess cash)---Seems low IMHO--

    Would suggest everyone should continue with due diligence efforts with focus
    on iNTERNET OF THINGS--There are a lot of links to some very interesting
    articles--googling up ----"What are Connected Devices"

    As suggested in original post some increased volatility has developed, as in
    my opinion--- Hedge Funds, High Frequency Traders, etc. may have become involved
    in recent months---This is likely to continue and care should be taken in placing
    orders---

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    For your information

    by judisolley Jun 20, 2015 2:38 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 20, 2015 3:21 PM Flag

    Thanks Judi-
    Although this may have been covered in earlier posts, still important
    information--does no harm to bring back "to the top"

  • caminocasa07 by caminocasa07 Jun 20, 2015 1:21 PM Flag

    BSQR in the last few months has been recognized by "The Street" as an emerging growth
    stock and this PERCEPTION has resulted in the remarkable performance in this recent
    time period--- This was recognized early on by Fuji, Dalton and others posting here (and somewhat
    belatedly--but not to late by myself)--- I capitalized "Perception"---in this business "Perception" is pretty close to "Reality".

    Three years ago, this company was perceived by "The Street" as a moribund tiny company,
    and although probably viable, was destined for mediocre performance over the foreseeable
    future---Jerry Chase arrival on the scene in late 2013 and early 2014 started the ball rolling, and
    the "Value Stock" label was placed on the shares, as cost cutting and a refocus on growth areas
    was implemented by Jerry, the Board of Directors and the BSQR team.---

    This year's first quarter results IMHO has generated and attracted some quite strong institutional interest,
    probably some Hedge Funds, Momentum Players High Frequency Traders, and hopefully, more importantly some "Buy and Hold" Institutional Investors. ---It seems to me that "PERCEPTION"
    changed rapidly, and although IMHO, still not a "Growth Stock:" label (perhaps too early for
    that---one quarter does not a growth stock maketh)---nevertheless BSQR over the next 2-3
    quarters could possibly attain the "Growth Stock" label---

    At this point "Emerging Growth Stock" label, plenty good enough, and as Dalton and others have
    suggested, ultimately an expanded PE multiple is appropriate with a 20X EPS Multiple
    eminently possible---This creates an opportunity (even from the current $7.50-$7.90+ price
    range) for well above average performance over the next 2-3 years.
    Early 2017 Price target Guesstimate--$14---Est. annual rate of return from current $7.80-----46%

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    KD logic comprehension

    by hparch Jun 18, 2015 6:01 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 18, 2015 6:50 PM Flag

    Thanks hp---these 3 posts are very helpful

  • Reply to

    BSQR- I think the stock is worth $10- here'as

    by dalton880 May 30, 2015 12:57 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 15, 2015 10:00 PM Flag

    Stock @ $7.75-----Consolidation and profit taking combined with overall weakness in market----
    Today's Microsoft announcement, although anticipated, still a positive---
    Suspect that many new investors have come in while some long term holders have
    lightened up and/or exited----
    Quite a few positives here, not the least of which is a shareholder friendly, capable
    management with integrity!

  • Reply to

    Questions for holdencf

    by biotechinvest1077 Jun 13, 2015 2:23 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 15, 2015 3:00 PM Flag

    ram

    My thumbs up to you also---
    GLTA

  • Reply to

    Questions for holdencf

    by biotechinvest1077 Jun 13, 2015 2:23 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 15, 2015 2:35 PM Flag

    Thanks
    My thumbs up---

  • caminocasa07 by caminocasa07 Jun 15, 2015 11:32 AM Flag

    Seems eminently attainable---That would be the ANNUALIZED RATE OF RETURN
    assuming stock goes from $6.77 to $8.00 over next 3 months---

  • caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 14, 2015 6:03 PM Flag

    e2
    Any thoughts what Red Sox can do to right the ship?

  • caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 14, 2015 2:17 PM Flag

    A plausible scenario---Another possibility:
    Big Pharma comes along in October with one of "those offers you can't refuse:-----
    GLTA

  • Reply to

    Back To The Future

    by investron Jun 12, 2015 9:44 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 12, 2015 10:25 PM Flag

    Rather amazing ----a round trip.
    OK onward and upward from here!

  • Reply to

    GILD "One for Three"

    by caminocasa07 May 27, 2015 10:47 AM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 12, 2015 10:15 PM Flag

    Oops: Should be $2,750,000,000.00 total market cap

  • Reply to

    GILD "One for Three"

    by caminocasa07 May 27, 2015 10:47 AM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 12, 2015 10:05 PM Flag

    You are all good and tough negotiators, Very clever playing it close to the vest---I can understand that---
    a "wait em out" strategy anticipating a higher offer----OK you win---a new (hypothetical) proposition:

    1 share of Gilead (which continues to move higher) for only 2 1/2 shares of Arrowhead---
    Using same numbers as above--An ARWR investor holding 3,000 shares now
    worth approximately $20,000 receives 1,200 shares of Gilead worth currently $140,000.00---

    Multiply by 10 for an investor holding 30,000 ARWR shares ---approximately $200,000---
    receives 12,000 shares GILD worth $1,400,000----a 7 bagger from here.

    This works out to $46.00 per share for an Arrowhead Research investor---a total market cap
    for the company of $2,750,000.00

  • Reply to

    SYNC Board of Directors

    by caminocasa07 Apr 24, 2015 7:40 AM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 12, 2015 5:25 PM Flag

    I agree mab

    Perception is pretty much reality in this business---IMHO BOD
    should attempt to find buyer for this company hopefully at a
    significantly higher price than currently prevailing that would be
    called "Doing the Right Thing"!
    GKTA

  • Reply to

    BSQR- I think the stock is worth $10- here'as

    by dalton880 May 30, 2015 12:57 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 11, 2015 8:19 PM Flag

    Well, it looks like you could be right---a potential $10.00 price target
    reached perhaps relatively soon and, earlier than mid 2016 (which I had been contemplating)---
    Still, likely to consolidate, and could back off somewhat near-term , especially if weakness in overall market---

    "splitting the difference, and thinking $10 by December, when the "market"
    will be discounting potential $.70 EPS in 2016, and with at least
    $1.50 in excess cash at that time---your price target seems reasonable,
    and if market starts to recognize this as an emerging growth stock (which seems
    to be happening, an expanded multiple higher than what I was thinking could emerge, andstock could well trade higher---
    Still, best, as always to be cautious---there are a lot of "snakes in the grass"
    out there

    In any event $10 IF achieved in six months works out to annualized rate
    of return of 50% from here---

    GLTA

  • caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 11, 2015 8:02 PM Flag

    e2

    Hope this works for you---Hang in there!

  • Reply to

    BSQR Volume Looks Strong

    by bmanning20 Jun 11, 2015 12:24 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 11, 2015 6:04 PM Flag

    Quest--

    I cab strongly relate to the "getting older concept"
    GLTA

  • Reply to

    ARC-ATT Present Value?

    by caminocasa07 May 7, 2015 9:11 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 11, 2015 12:26 PM Flag

    Thanks hp, end, wyatt et.al.---much appreciated---I need all the help on this
    that can be mustered and generated!

    There are many variables in the analytical equation just for ARC:
    What is Appropriate Discount Rate
    Year when Revenues Commence
    Magnitude of First Full Year Revenues
    Profit Margin
    What Multiple of Revenues Appropriate
    Shares Outstanding

    Probably more:

    What is Overall Market Doing
    Management Execution Perception
    Cash On Balance Sheet

    II do like end's idea of derisking this with partnering---

    All of the above of course gives no consideration to everything else that
    is going on!

    GLTA