oops--last paragraph--should be "a price where one could buy and sell in sizable quantities"---
Also --one year price target of $8.40 if achieved would result in a 30.43% rate of return for investor
buying (or holding) BSQR at Friday's closing price of $6.44.
Just my opinion and intended to be conservative---
Presented primarily for discussion purposes--
A number of premises and assumptions which may not materialize
Still plenty of risks---see SEC Filings--
New EPS guesstimate for 2016----$.64 (could be low and in fact that could even turn out to be
In any event I am assuming a 14 PE ratio on that number which would theoretically
result in target price of $8.96---I am discounting that number to $8.40 ---again to be
conservative, and also reflecting volatilty caused by what appears to be a trading mentality
which has developed---
A 14 multiple would represent a 7.14% Earnings Yield---
In my opinion the PE multiple will soon start to correspond to the "Street" expectations of
3-5 year Earnings growth rate.----the 14 PE assumes a 14% growth rate in EPS over next 3-5 years.
The "PEG" Ratio would thus be 1---
If one assumes a higher growth rate in EPS , say 16%---then a good chance PEmultiple would move to 16X
Anyway, a very rough rule of thumb for guessing an appropriate PE ratio for this stock.
The above assumes no value whatsoever given to growing cash position---no different than
currently where this seems to be the case--
An $8.40 one year price target---a price where one could be and sell in sizeable quantities---
would represent a rate of return from curent $6.56 of-----28% That would be fine with me at
this point---others may well feel differently and target goal is too low---they could well be right.
Also, not impossible to think that a strategic buyer for the company could emerge---in which
case credit would be given for large cash position---and hopefully in that case we could be
looking at a price target -$10+/-?
There is nothing of substance to your post. If you know how to read, take a look at the briefs filed in the Supreme Court. Might be a helpful place to start.
In the context of the implications and nuances which you allude to, two aphorisms come to
mind which seem appropriate for investors in ARWR to consider:
"The Market abhors uncertainty" (This also applies to individual stocks such as ARWR)
"Sell to the Sleeping Point"----Not a recommendation to sell, nor even a suggestion, but merely
something to perhaps think about--
IMHO a Stock Repurchase Plan to be implemented over a 4 year period would
be OK ----would ultimately enhance to some degree EPS down the road---
CFO Marty seems conservative and like many CFO's is happy with lots of
cash on Balance Sheet---
Much depends on BOD Strategic Plan----
Do we want to be acquired near term by a Strategic Buyer?
Do we want to play the hand out for a few years with goal of being perceived
by "The Street" as a growth company, and 3-4years from now find Strategic Buyer?
This would involve a more active Investor Relations Program
Finding well regarded Investment firm to do major Research Report on Company,
do Investor Presentations at Brokerage Firm Conferences, and in general
being more proactive in presenting longer term Growth Goals and Objectives.
Is the Plan to keep going as we are? ----Keep low profile, Execute well, and gradually develop significant long term engagements with large companies involving our IoT expertise and sooner or later "The Street" will recognize our value proposition, and true long term institutional
investors will come in big time..
It seems to me since excellent first quarter earnings report, BSQR has morphed to some degree into a "Trading Stock" with perhaps a few hedge Funds, day traders, momentum players , short sellers and even high frequency traders all involved---just speculating, and could be
wrong---others on this Board undoubtedly have a better handle on this part of the
analytical equation---In any event significant volatility, hopefully with an upward bias
will be with us for the forseeable future IMHO
I hope you are right---
Assuming $1.30 per share could theoretically be distributed to shareholders as a special
one time dividend (not likely to happen but the money is there to do so), that would
still leave BSQR with approximately $15 million in cash---more than enough to run the
company, and likely to increase substantially over next several quarters,
Thus, a case could be made that the stock is currently "priced" at $5.00 ($6.30 - $1.30)---
adjusted for the hypothetical one time dividend. Personally, I would hope that the
BOD would make this a reality, rather than just hypothetical/theoretical----Others on this Board
may prefer a different utilization of BSQR excess cash.
At the adjusted $5.00, the stock would have a market cap of approximately $60,000,000---
which seems low based on Revenues and Potential EPS metrics.
Also, would prefer to see BOD explore ARWR being acquired by Strategic Buyer as
posted on another thread ----I would be Ok with a $9.00 Buyout late this year
(after shareholders receive proposed $1.30 dividend)---a total received by shareholders of $10.30---
Most long term shareholders could declare victory with this scenario.
Alternative---Just find strategic buyer ---at $10.00+---(Buyer of company would obtain
all cash on hand at closing under this scenario).
Upcoming Conference call in mid-August should be interesting.
Just my opinion---GLTA
In another week or so (by end of July we will be approximately less than 40 trading days to
Assuming positive news at that time, there will be growing speculation as
to best way to structure financing ---Using CELG/JUNO model, and assuming
Chris and BOD will want to have more than enough cash to bring Drugs to
final FDA approval over next three years---a posssible deal with a Big Pharma
company could look like this:
$600,000,000 raise accomplished by issuance of 15,000,000+ new shares
to a big Pharma company for 20% of ARWR---This would be priced
at approximately $40---Total shares outstanding would then be a little more than
75,000,000 perhaps closer to 80,000,000
Market Cap would then be approximately $3,000,000,000 -$3,200,000,000
This would seem to me to be a win-win deal--good for ARWR and good
for the Big Pharma Company.
The Yahoo "key statistics" section to the left when you click on the stock symbol
shows the Book Value per share of $10.30 at the bottom---Balance sheet section---
This is the same number reported by the company at end of last quarter----always subject to change
as loans and other assets are continually being reevaluated---a little bit of a subjective
number but hopefully "in the ball park"---
Shakespeare's Macbeth expressed the proper approach IMHO --although in a different context
"If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done quickly"
Price has to be right---note new 750,000 share registration (July 16th) under amended stock option plan---IMHO a stock repurchase plan is in order to offset dilution--
I along with others on this Board have been an advocate of this several months ago and --It would have been better if implemented then when price was lower---I do realize the need for BSQR to attract and retain key employees (our major asset)---and I am all for incentives---
If implemented wisely, can have salutary impact on stock price.
In any event we have sufficient cash on hand to implement major stock Repurchase Plan--
How about $14,000,000 to be carried out over next three years?
Kevin Walsh is new Vice-President Marketing---I thought I had seen a Press Release
a few months ago, but cannot find now---will attempt to get more information on his
Hopefully Kevin will do a great job
This is one reason why IMHO a modest stock repurchase program would be a good idea---to
cover stock option issuance---(not only to Kevin but to other deserving key employees and executives)
to prevent dilution of earnings--
A portion of cash flow and existing cash on hand could still be utilized for a small, potentially spectacular acquisition---software related with high margins (much higher than corporate average) and importantly, immediately
accretive to earnings---
There could still be a substantial cash build over the next few years even after both initiatives implemented---
Will be interesting to see how events unfold---Would be OK with me if a strategic buyer came along in
next few months and a Buyout took place in low double digits---Probably not likely, and others may
disagree anyway, thinking the stock eventually will be worth much more---they could be right ----
thank you---I respect your opinion on this important part of the analytical equation.
Would be interested in your thoughts on the Juno-Celgene model as related
to potential for something similar for ARWR---perhaps after AD day--
We will need substantial funds relatively soon---