Yes just for fun and a very interesting model--However IMHO Best to be conservative
and assume torrid growth will slow ---Also Still many risk factors to consider---
Asssuming 40% to 50% EPS growth over next 5 years and using $3,70 EPS
guesstimate for 2015:
Guessing EPS Growth of 42% average next five years
Assuming just a 20X PE Ratio (again hopefully conservative) stock would be trading over
-5 years from now an annualized Rate of return from
current $72.00 of::
Note this assumes a rather low PE ratio 5 years from now but by then, growth rate
could be slowing further--
Need to always be cognizant of risk factors
Another hypothetical scenario would involve a shorter time frame
Assume a 30 multiple on EPS of $7.00 in 2017---
Would result in nearly a triple a little over two years from now--$200+
It has probably been done---
One thing that for sure is done---An analyst or money manager from a financial institution visits a company and is signing in at the guest register-- there is room on the register for date and name of company, and also who is being visited---
While signing in that analyst is (discretely) going to try to look aas many names of previous visitors --what
companies represented---when the visits took place, who visited --etc.
A book about greed and incompetence
in corporate America and the legal system circa.
early 21st Century---.
A rambling sad ---even tragic
story of events over a seven year period
involving truly uninteresting people
engaged in chicanery and wealth destruction----
people who have no morals or sense of ethics,
ready willing and able to betray the trust of
those that needed and relied on that trust.
exactly what I was thinking---she has "cover" next time
she talks to Chris--"Chris, a mixup--I can explain what happened"
Agreed, and as good a guess as any---One thing I found strange (Detective Columbo
might ask this question)--- Why did Alithea do the downgrade and not Robyn?
My apology---I was just going to follow up post with
"Oops, I see that you have already viewed the article"
Respectfully suggest you google "The 2014 Rising Stars of Wall Street"
Good information as related to how her mind works---(takes 5 minutes)
I am glad that you had a chance to look
at "The 2014 Rising Stars of Wall Street"---
I hope that others on the Board will
take the time (five minutes) to visit the link site.
Alethia may be very very smart---Her
Bachelors Degrees at Duke in Spanish and
Economics do not relate to Biotech---I am sure
she has learned a lot "on the job"
One thing that is important however---She does
have an opportunity with her position to be able
to talk to CEO's of many biotech companies and
this enables her to develop a perception as to
management competence and ability as compared
to other CEO's with other companies
IMHO her perception has developed that questions
have arisen on Management's going forward ability to
execute in a challenging business---The other points she made are just mostly "noise" IMHO----
I do think this is a valid question which one needs
to ask (more or less continuosly) not only with ARWR
but with any company in which one has invested.
My personal "ground rules as related to questions:
(1) Is Management Honest?
(2) Are they TRULY interested in Enhancement of
Stock value for outside shareholders?---Here,
actions speak louder than words
(3) Is Management Capable?
(4) Does Management Have a Strategic Plan?
(5) Does whatever the company does make
sense conceptually---Is there huge growth potential?
(6) IIs the price of the stock attractive realtive to
questions 1-5 above
I think we need yes answers to all 6
Just some personal thoughts.
Would be good IMHO to familiarize with Alithea's background
just more information to process--you never know when something
can be helpful in working "on the case" As posted on another thread--
Google --"The 2014 Rising Stars of Wall Street"
Yes you are probably right on both assumptions--
Typically one year price targets---Actual reports typically have
risk factors referenced and also "price target subject to change etc."
We have seen that this can happen---
PT is attempting to get information---the more the better
still the information needs to be analyzed
There are clues here and PT by referencing the Yahoo
Message Board in his eMail could cause management to
follow the comments contained herein---
There is growing perception on this Board that Management is making
mistakes in execution and FDA initiatives---This was Alithea Young's
first point so this perception is increasing on Wall Street---
Perception is Reality---
Your technical work is most appreciated.
Alethea may be very smart and capable---IMHO her opinion is probably largely
based on her perceptions of Management Capability and Competence
especially as related to other companies that she follows.
The other points she made could be something of a smoke screen---
In this business Perception is Reality ( IMHO)
Detective Columbo (if he were a Stock Analyst) would be trying to get as much information as possible
concerning Alethia's knowledge of Biotech --her education, experience etc.---Clearly she
has had an influence on the behavior of the stock in recent months--
Ok---where do we start---Well let's Google up "The 2014 Rising Stars of Wall Street"
Some information on Alethia---
Still more questions than answers at this time---Respectfully suggest we "keep plugging" as related
to our due diligence efforts ---keep asking questions and stay persistent (Make Detective
Possible, especially with ARWR ongoing legal issues---Over the last few years,
due diligence efforts by individual investors and also institutional investors have become more difficult
mostly related to IR Departments and Senior Executives super sensitive to not getting involved
in any interaction that could be remotely construed as "selective disclosure"---or "inside
Perhaps a Phone Call to IR would get through---
Analysts from Institutional investor firms have a somewhat better chance to obtain general information
as IR people and Executives usually know who they are talking to----It takes time to develop
a relationship---Many times it starts when an analyst attends an investor presentation or
an annual meeting, introduces himself or herself to the CEO, IR Person etc., explains
the degree of interest, gives business card, asks if OK to call from time to time etc.
Overall, I would say that the analytical playing field is more even today than it was
several years ago--Corporations are very sensitive on this issue and IMHO an alert, curious,
hard working individual investor can keep up with the "Street"---sometimes can even
"Beat the Street" (not easy however)
Overall, I think the totality of the Research on this Board is very good (with some exceptions)--
Five key attributes required IMHO---Patience Discipline, Focus Flexibility and Conviction--
Add in Hard Work, Curiosity and Persistence---Need to be like Detective Columbo--
always asking questions---
Hope this helps a little bit----
Vince Anzalone VP Investor Relations should respond to legitimate general questions
that do not involve anything that could be regarded as Inside information or
"selective disclosure"--- IMHO
Hypothetically---Would you consider taking one share GILD for three shares ARWR----
with closing of transaction ---March 15, 2015?
I assume everyone knows this ---
In the January 12th update relative to this non-clinical study
Arrowhead referred to this study as "ongoing" and
also stated ARC-520 was
"well tolerated with no evidence of end organ toxicity to date"
We should soon know more--hopefully sooner rather than later.
Not sure if this would be helpful---- someone that understands our technology
generates a matrix involving a guess as to how price of stock might react assuming
that the FDA letter say 20 days from now comes up with the following:
(Assume stock trading at time of letter---$7.50)
(1) Full Hold
(2) Partial Hold Extension for another 30 days
(3) Approved Protocol:
a. 1 mg every 30 days for 6 months
b. 1 mg. every 30 days for 3 months
c. 1 mg every 15 days for 3 months
d. 1 mg. every 10 days for 3 months
e. 1 mg every 10 days for 1 month (total 3 mg after 30 days)
then a 2m. "shot: on day 45 then back to 1mg. on the 60th day
this last one would then be a total of 6 mg, over 60 days.
I do not know enough to even guess at 3 (a-e)
My guess on (1)---Stock would retreat to $4.00 - $4.50
My guess on (2)---Stock would retreat to $5.00 - $5.50