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LIN TV Corp. Message Board

caminocasa07 133 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 hours ago Member since: Jan 11, 2007
  • Reply to

    Any Accountants on this board??

    by pt117cool 17 hours ago
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 16 hours ago Flag

    Dan

    Would not an increase in spending increase the burn rate?

  • Reply to

    A 5 Year YY Earnings Model just for fun

    by valueman2015 Jan 3, 2015 10:08 AM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jan 24, 2015 9:07 AM Flag

    Yes just for fun and a very interesting model--However IMHO Best to be conservative
    and assume torrid growth will slow ---Also Still many risk factors to consider---
    Asssuming 40% to 50% EPS growth over next 5 years and using $3,70 EPS
    guesstimate for 2015:

    Guessing EPS Growth of 42% average next five years

    2015 $3.70
    2016 $5.25
    2017 $7.46
    2018 $10.59
    2019 $15.04
    2020 $21.36

    Assuming just a 20X PE Ratio (again hopefully conservative) stock would be trading over

    $400.00 ---
    -5 years from now an annualized Rate of return from
    current $72.00 of::

    40.91%

    Note this assumes a rather low PE ratio 5 years from now but by then, growth rate
    could be slowing further--

    Need to always be cognizant of risk factors
    Another hypothetical scenario would involve a shorter time frame
    Assume a 30 multiple on EPS of $7.00 in 2017---
    Would result in nearly a triple a little over two years from now--$200+

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    Here's I think another Macchiavallian thought...

    by kamoa_1 Jan 22, 2015 2:27 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jan 23, 2015 7:48 AM Flag

    It has probably been done---
    One thing that for sure is done---An analyst or money manager from a financial institution visits a company and is signing in at the guest register-- there is room on the register for date and name of company, and also who is being visited---

    While signing in that analyst is (discretely) going to try to look aas many names of previous visitors --what
    companies represented---when the visits took place, who visited --etc.

  • caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jan 22, 2015 10:16 PM Flag

    Yes

    A book about greed and incompetence
    in corporate America and the legal system circa.
    early 21st Century---.

    A rambling sad ---even tragic
    story of events over a seven year period
    involving truly uninteresting people
    engaged in chicanery and wealth destruction----
    people who have no morals or sense of ethics,
    ready willing and able to betray the trust of
    those that needed and relied on that trust.

    GLTA

  • caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jan 22, 2015 9:07 PM Flag

    exactly what I was thinking---she has "cover" next time
    she talks to Chris--"Chris, a mixup--I can explain what happened"

  • caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jan 22, 2015 8:58 PM Flag

    Agreed, and as good a guess as any---One thing I found strange (Detective Columbo
    might ask this question)--- Why did Alithea do the downgrade and not Robyn?

  • Reply to

    Deutsche Bank Recommended At the Top....

    by optclub3 Jan 22, 2015 7:28 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jan 22, 2015 8:32 PM Flag

    My apology---I was just going to follow up post with
    "Oops, I see that you have already viewed the article"

  • Reply to

    Deutsche Bank Recommended At the Top....

    by optclub3 Jan 22, 2015 7:28 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jan 22, 2015 8:27 PM Flag

    jones

    Respectfully suggest you google "The 2014 Rising Stars of Wall Street"
    Good information as related to how her mind works---(takes 5 minutes)

  • Reply to

    Current Price Targets

    by retired7211 Jan 22, 2015 3:06 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jan 22, 2015 8:18 PM Flag

    Ram:

    I am glad that you had a chance to look
    at "The 2014 Rising Stars of Wall Street"---
    I hope that others on the Board will
    take the time (five minutes) to visit the link site.

    Alethia may be very very smart---Her
    Bachelors Degrees at Duke in Spanish and
    Economics do not relate to Biotech---I am sure
    she has learned a lot "on the job"

    One thing that is important however---She does
    have an opportunity with her position to be able
    to talk to CEO's of many biotech companies and
    this enables her to develop a perception as to
    management competence and ability as compared
    to other CEO's with other companies

    IMHO her perception has developed that questions
    have arisen on Management's going forward ability to
    execute in a challenging business---The other points she made are just mostly "noise" IMHO----

    I do think this is a valid question which one needs
    to ask (more or less continuosly) not only with ARWR
    but with any company in which one has invested.

    My personal "ground rules as related to questions:

    (1) Is Management Honest?
    (2) Are they TRULY interested in Enhancement of
    Stock value for outside shareholders?---Here,
    actions speak louder than words
    (3) Is Management Capable?
    (4) Does Management Have a Strategic Plan?
    (5) Does whatever the company does make
    sense conceptually---Is there huge growth potential?
    (6) IIs the price of the stock attractive realtive to
    questions 1-5 above

    I think we need yes answers to all 6

    Just some personal thoughts.

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    Deutsche Bank Recommended At the Top....

    by optclub3 Jan 22, 2015 7:28 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jan 22, 2015 7:51 PM Flag

    Actually--on "The Street"---a "hold" is in essence a code word generally regarded as a sell.

  • Reply to

    Current Price Targets

    by retired7211 Jan 22, 2015 3:06 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jan 22, 2015 5:53 PM Flag

    Would be good IMHO to familiarize with Alithea's background
    just more information to process--you never know when something
    can be helpful in working "on the case" As posted on another thread--
    Google --"The 2014 Rising Stars of Wall Street"

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    Current Price Targets

    by retired7211 Jan 22, 2015 3:06 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jan 22, 2015 3:13 PM Flag

    Yes you are probably right on both assumptions--
    Typically one year price targets---Actual reports typically have
    risk factors referenced and also "price target subject to change etc."
    We have seen that this can happen---

  • Reply to

    Got email anwer just now!!! From Doc

    by pt117cool Jan 22, 2015 10:53 AM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jan 22, 2015 11:52 AM Flag

    Dirk

    Respectfully disagree--
    PT is attempting to get information---the more the better
    still the information needs to be analyzed

    There are clues here and PT by referencing the Yahoo
    Message Board in his eMail could cause management to
    follow the comments contained herein---

    There is growing perception on this Board that Management is making
    mistakes in execution and FDA initiatives---This was Alithea Young's
    first point so this perception is increasing on Wall Street---
    Perception is Reality---

    Your technical work is most appreciated.

    GLTA

  • caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jan 22, 2015 11:09 AM Flag

    Alethea may be very smart and capable---IMHO her opinion is probably largely
    based on her perceptions of Management Capability and Competence
    especially as related to other companies that she follows.
    The other points she made could be something of a smoke screen---
    In this business Perception is Reality ( IMHO)

  • Detective Columbo (if he were a Stock Analyst) would be trying to get as much information as possible
    concerning Alethia's knowledge of Biotech --her education, experience etc.---Clearly she
    has had an influence on the behavior of the stock in recent months--
    Ok---where do we start---Well let's Google up "The 2014 Rising Stars of Wall Street"
    Some information on Alethia---

    Still more questions than answers at this time---Respectfully suggest we "keep plugging" as related
    to our due diligence efforts ---keep asking questions and stay persistent (Make Detective
    Columbo proud!)

  • Reply to

    Questions for LONGS!!!

    by pt117cool Jan 21, 2015 6:27 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jan 21, 2015 7:12 PM Flag

    Possible, especially with ARWR ongoing legal issues---Over the last few years,
    due diligence efforts by individual investors and also institutional investors have become more difficult
    mostly related to IR Departments and Senior Executives super sensitive to not getting involved
    in any interaction that could be remotely construed as "selective disclosure"---or "inside
    information"

    Perhaps a Phone Call to IR would get through---

    Analysts from Institutional investor firms have a somewhat better chance to obtain general information
    as IR people and Executives usually know who they are talking to----It takes time to develop
    a relationship---Many times it starts when an analyst attends an investor presentation or
    an annual meeting, introduces himself or herself to the CEO, IR Person etc., explains
    the degree of interest, gives business card, asks if OK to call from time to time etc.

    Overall, I would say that the analytical playing field is more even today than it was
    several years ago--Corporations are very sensitive on this issue and IMHO an alert, curious,
    hard working individual investor can keep up with the "Street"---sometimes can even
    "Beat the Street" (not easy however)

    Overall, I think the totality of the Research on this Board is very good (with some exceptions)--
    Five key attributes required IMHO---Patience Discipline, Focus Flexibility and Conviction--
    Add in Hard Work, Curiosity and Persistence---Need to be like Detective Columbo--
    always asking questions---

    Hope this helps a little bit----

  • caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jan 21, 2015 11:16 AM Flag

    Vince Anzalone VP Investor Relations should respond to legitimate general questions
    that do not involve anything that could be regarded as Inside information or
    "selective disclosure"--- IMHO

  • caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jan 21, 2015 9:06 AM Flag

    Hypothetically---Would you consider taking one share GILD for three shares ARWR----
    with closing of transaction ---March 15, 2015?

  • Reply to

    SAEs and AEs ....

    by ram1979colo Jan 20, 2015 7:35 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jan 20, 2015 10:05 PM Flag

    I assume everyone knows this ---
    In the January 12th update relative to this non-clinical study
    Arrowhead referred to this study as "ongoing" and
    also stated ARC-520 was
    "well tolerated with no evidence of end organ toxicity to date"

    We should soon know more--hopefully sooner rather than later.

  • caminocasa07 by caminocasa07 Jan 20, 2015 6:16 PM Flag

    Not sure if this would be helpful---- someone that understands our technology
    generates a matrix involving a guess as to how price of stock might react assuming
    that the FDA letter say 20 days from now comes up with the following:
    (Assume stock trading at time of letter---$7.50)

    (1) Full Hold
    (2) Partial Hold Extension for another 30 days

    (3) Approved Protocol:
    a. 1 mg every 30 days for 6 months
    b. 1 mg. every 30 days for 3 months
    c. 1 mg every 15 days for 3 months
    d. 1 mg. every 10 days for 3 months
    e. 1 mg every 10 days for 1 month (total 3 mg after 30 days)
    then a 2m. "shot: on day 45 then back to 1mg. on the 60th day
    this last one would then be a total of 6 mg, over 60 days.

    I do not know enough to even guess at 3 (a-e)
    My guess on (1)---Stock would retreat to $4.00 - $4.50
    My guess on (2)---Stock would retreat to $5.00 - $5.50

    GLTA

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