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General Motors Company Message Board

caminocasa07 79 posts  |  Last Activity: 4 hours ago Member since: Jan 11, 2007
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  • Reply to

    PSEC Est. Rate of Return

    by caminocasa07 Oct 16, 2014 11:17 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 4 hours ago Flag

    Using similar methodology, and same caveats, and with following assumptions, a potential
    annualized rate of return of approximately 18%* from Friday's closing price of $9.64.

    Assume monthly dividend reduced to $.10 per share in February 2015---
    Assume price of $10.00 by end of July 2015---Conservative?

    Investor would realize appreciation of $.36 per share--
    4 Dividends at $.11------------------- $,44 per share
    5 Dividends at $,10 Feb-June** $.50 per share

    *Actually somewhat higher annualized rate of return as money from
    dividends received every month--not just at end---earlier post est. rate
    also needs to be adjusted upward---

    ** June Dividend received late July Approx 9 months from now

    Still would like to see management make some shareholder friendly
    adjustments to their compensation structure---would resonate
    strongly positive with "The Street"

    Finally, IMHO although a reduction in the dividend to $.10 per month could
    temporarily have a negative impact on share price---this would
    be short lived, and stock would quickly rebound--(Investors
    would not have the specter of a possible dividend cut
    overhanging---also a reduced dividend would theoretically involve
    less perceived risk as management would not have to scramble quite so
    hard to achieve heroic investment returns on new investments.

    A $.10 cent monthly dividend would still represent a return of
    12% with stock at $10.00

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    2015-2016 Price Target

    by caminocasa07 10 hours ago
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 10 hours ago Flag

    oops--should be "that" not "hat"---

  • My guesses Price Targets:

    2015 $4.80 - $5.20
    2016 $6.40 - $7.20

    If a solid $6.80 were to be achieved by March 2016---
    an annualized rate of return of approximately 47%
    from current $3.72--hat would work for me!

    This year third quarter---my guess EPS $.07-.$.08
    versus loss of $.32 last year---If attained should
    resonate positively with investors---

    Still plenty of risks---need to continue due diligence efforts

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    New Hiring...

    by sofala1122 Oct 16, 2014 9:22 AM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Oct 18, 2014 3:20 PM Flag

    Thanks-

    Iit looks like one of the positions is new CFO (unless recently filled)--
    This is a very important position and no room for mistakes on this---The person
    in addition to the attributes specified on the website, needs to have a
    great chemistry with Jerry--

    It looks like they want the new CFO to head up HR as well as oversee
    Legal---IMHO, a mistake and too much for one person---Should be able to find qualified
    persons for HR and Legal at very reasonable salaries---let new CFO concentrate
    on being CFO!

    Have some additional thoughts to follow--

    GLTA

  • caminocasa07 by caminocasa07 Oct 16, 2014 11:17 PM Flag

    From October 16th closing price of 9.34 my guess is a 17.8% rate of return
    on investment between now and end of 2015---hopefully conservative and
    derived as follows:

    (1) October through January Dividends $.11 x 4 mo = $.44

    (2) Assume PSEC drops dividend to only 8 cents monthly
    February 2015 through December 2015----this would be
    extreme and perhaps unlikely ---in any event that would
    be $.96 annualized and would represent a still excellent
    and quite likely perceived to be secure rate of return on
    $9.34 0f 10.2%
    Thus 11 months X .08 = $.88

    (3) Assume stock grinds its way to $10 by end of
    2015---a gain of $.66---

    Adding the $.44 + $.88 + $.66 to $9.34 = $11.32

    1.16 years from now December 2015 works out to
    rate of return of 17.8% comprised of dividend
    plus capital gain---Best if stock held in tax free account.

    Hopefully this is conservative---It would be helpful if
    management took some actions that would be perceived
    as shareholder friendly such as not computing management
    fees on uninvested funds,

    Still risks here, and everyone should continue with
    own due diligence efforts.

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    Phase III question

    by drexeler Oct 13, 2014 7:01 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Oct 13, 2014 8:12 PM Flag

    Thanks good information.

  • Reply to

    looking for a good entry point

    by namevacus Sep 15, 2014 3:03 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Oct 13, 2014 8:10 PM Flag

    getting close but not yet?

  • Reply to

    Oct. 3 - After Hours: up .09 - 3.74

    by found_it_two Oct 3, 2014 6:41 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Oct 3, 2014 7:11 PM Flag

    Risky IMHO like everything else in the market these days---However, I do like
    our chances and hope your price target materializes.

  • Reply to

    Making Progress

    by buffalorisingnewmillenium Oct 1, 2014 9:52 AM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Oct 1, 2014 10:04 AM Flag

    Yes I agree--Time is very short---
    Best outcome in my opinion--Company works with the activist investor group
    to find strategic buyer for company---substantially higher price than current
    could be realized. IMHO this should not be a stand alone company in current market
    environment.

    GLTA

  • caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Sep 28, 2014 5:16 PM Flag

    Crystal!

  • Reply to

    Yahoo a year from now

    by beansinyobag Sep 20, 2014 5:20 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Sep 20, 2014 9:50 PM Flag

    IMHO your third scenario postulated is most likely--"Big foot kid......."

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    CEO disclosure behavior should be duly noted

    by simp08801 Sep 20, 2014 10:18 AM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Sep 20, 2014 10:54 AM Flag

    Yes I agree with Simp---another little "chip" taken from the rock of confidence required
    to be involved in this or any stock---small chips have a tendency to grow in number,
    and also can morph into bigger chips---Ouch!

    Rico's perception that CG "seems to have no regard for us. never has" is interesting,
    understandable, and should be debated---In this business perception is pretty close to reality!

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    Entire BDC sector down

    by budmasterbud Sep 19, 2014 12:44 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Sep 19, 2014 8:57 PM Flag

    With greatest respect and just IMHO but a stock is either a buy or a sell---
    Here are two questions- would you buy the stock on Monday at $10.12 if
    you did not own it?--Is there some other stock that you would rather buy,
    if you would not buy PSEC?
    GLTA

  • Reply to

    PIP's 8-K - What are they thinking?

    by frwdlook Sep 19, 2014 7:34 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Sep 19, 2014 8:38 PM Flag

    Well to answer your question--and this is only my opinion but they are NOT thinking---

    The good news is I do not think they are crooks---greedy perhaps but
    not crooks---what we do have here is incompetence and arrogance---which
    seems to be pretty prevalent throughout much (not all) of Corporate America--We have a good
    example here ---the outside shareholders (i.e the OWNERS of the company)
    are not being kept informed --ARROGANCE seems to me to be the best word to describe
    Pip's management at this time--- sad, but true IMHO--

    Management should be given credit for picking attorneys that were better
    than Siga's attorneys---"we outlawyered em"---at least up to now---
    Siga seems determined to demonstrate the principle that if they are going
    to go down in flames---take everybody else with them---

    GLTA

  • caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Sep 18, 2014 8:19 PM Flag

    Good Move!

    Crazy Stock Crazy Market Crazy Economy Crazy Geopolitics

  • Reply to

    Another positive indicator

    by fujigrower Sep 15, 2014 10:42 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Sep 16, 2014 9:59 PM Flag

    Thanks fuji as always-- Yes---liquidity an important consideration in today's market environment--

    Spent some time on the10K--I wanted to check on the NOL's---they are
    substantial and a real "hidden asset" IMHO
    NOL's are currently around $50 Million, and although some are going to
    expire in the next 2-3 years, there will still be $40 million NOL'S not
    expiring until 2020-2022.

    Company will not be paying taxes for a long time---

    Also, NOL's do have some value if BSQR were to be acquired, although
    NOL's not as valuable to an acquirer, as they are to BSQR as stand alone co.
    Next year, assuiming profitability anticipatd to continue in the future, there
    is a good chance IMHO that valuation allowance will be rversed, and
    deferred tax asset (approximately $14 million+/- will show as an asset
    on the balance sheet with a corrresponding increase in retained earnings
    (a one time non cash flow event but would likely be perceived as a positive
    by the "Street".).
    Company needs to be able to get operating margins into the 7-8% range
    over next few years---would result in operating EPS of $.50-$.60---

    I am hopeful that with continued progress, this company could be accorded
    a market cap of at least one times revenues later in 2015-early 2016. Also
    hope it will be possible to meet Mr. Chase in near future---he seens to be
    doing an excellent job in turning this company around.

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    SIGA Reveals Basis for Appeals in its BK Filing

    by frwdlook Sep 16, 2014 1:22 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Sep 16, 2014 2:52 PM Flag

    That pretty much sums it up for me.

  • caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Sep 16, 2014 9:15 AM Flag

    Thanks for your insight on this--

    Do you think class action suit will be forthcoming against Siga officers and directors?

  • caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Sep 13, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    Not sure but I seem to recall fees are also computed on uninvested cash whereas some
    BDCs do not follow this practice---

  • Reply to

    Exageration

    by caminocasa07 Sep 12, 2014 7:53 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Sep 12, 2014 7:57 PM Flag

    Oops should be "Exaggeration"---Darn it all---that has to be my millionth spelling error
    in the last six months---Sorry

GM
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