Well at least it could be---Have been receiving reports today that he has been sighted
by several individuals----in Louisville Kentucky--yesterday in a Memorial Day Parade
(carrying a baseball bat), and today at the Hillerich & Bradsby Louisville Slugger Bat
factory and museum at Eighth and Main Streets----Apparently he is having 100 bats
made for him personalized with GaINAcing GaINAc and his holdencf signature on
his Louisville Slugger bats similar to the Ted Willaims model.
Inforrmation is still a little sketchy---some say he looks a little unkempt and disheveled--
others say he looks trim, dapper and debonair----I prefer to think the latter.
Will attempt to keep the Board informed as further information is received and processed.
Good question---Himesh, I believe stated as a goal---$225,000,000 revenues in 2017--
Hopefully that number factors into the analytical equation the possibility of some loss
of revenues from various current customer/clients---Up til now Himesh has been
conservative in stated goals re: revenues, ebita etc. Implicit in all of this is the need for
management to run "a tight ship" and achieve solid profitability (not just solid ebitda)---
Prior to the AT&T deal I had been advocating for over a year that BOD find strategic buyer--thinking
that a valuation of somewhere between $3 and $4 would be possible--
The AT&T deal is a potential game changer for Sync ----still will require solid execution.
In any event AT&T plus other initiatives launched in the last 12-18 months under leadership
of Himesh could, and hopefully will propel this stock to much higher levels in 2017-2019.
Personally, I feel comfortable holding, and adding to an already overweighted position
at or around the current $2.75-$2.84 price levels. Anything can happen of course and in a
weak overall market stock could go lower from here----.
The rationale that I am using, simplictically (although there are many other metrics) is that
IMHO this stock could trade at 1X Revenues in 2017---Assuming $225,000,000 Revenues
in 2017 and assuming 34,000,000 shares (after recent options issued)--- a reasonable
2017 price target of $6.62?---OK reduce to $6.00 to be conservative---In any event a
potential 115% +/- one year rate of return?
Everyone should continue due diligence efforts and be aware of risks involved (see SEC filings)
You seem to have a very good handle on this--Your thoughts
are most appreciated. -I too have spent several hours in the analytical effort.--As mentioned earlier have been engaged in this type of effort for a long time..
IMHO NEWT should work higher from here---between now and end of June assume some investors will be "buying the dividend" which I am guessing will be $.38 Dividend should be announced in mid-June with ex dividend around June 28th---Every day It is getting closer to the point where a holder of the stock will in effect
be receiving 5 quarterly dividends in a 12/13 month time frame
I continue to feel it would be good if they convert to a monthly
dividend format perhaps later this year when they hopefully are building excess cash to enable a "smoothing out" of the
lumpiness in i-quarterly earnings to enable a monthly dividend program
More importantly is the long term outlook which at this point looks
favorable---although there are risks one of which is
execution risk----not too much room for any major glitches-
There are a lot of moving parts here-
My crystal ball (Ol' Jenny) gets a little hazy the further out
in the time zone that I set for her..
Best wishes to you and all for success on the"Newt adventure"!
It would be good if there were more Wall Street coverage with emphasis on the
SYNC long term value proposition. Currently IMHO the stock is being flipped around by
day traders, momentum players, hedge funds high frequency traders etc.
Ultimately value will prevail and am optimistic that at this time next year we will
be trading higher than the Rosenblatt $4.50 price target (although a 50% gain from here
after the more than 100% gain in the last few weeks would still be Ok with me).
Profit taking after huge run-up + weak overall market---
Market makers largely gone---replaced by computers
Best book on this subject "Flash Boys" by Michael Lewis---worth reading.
Since AT&T deal Volatility greatly increased with hedge funds, day traders, momentum players
and high frequency traders probably all involved
IMHO a 1X Revenue valuation metric would be appropriate later this year---
Assuming $130,000,000 Revenues in 2016 approx. and assuming approx.
34,000,000 shares (which includes option shares not in money)--
it seems to me that a $3.80 price would be reasonable later this year---
a gain of 27% from today's $2.98 close. Then hopefully onward and upward
in 2017, 2018 and 2019.
Another Seeking Alpha article on Newt out today---5-17-2016---
Author appears cautiously optimistic.
Personally, I am much more positive.
Still, with overall market very volatile with a downward bias,
probably best to accumulate gradually--anything can happen.
Continue to feel that a monthly dividend format would be a positive
Yes Thanks Cop---
You are correct--It was tried on Mars in 1992 and again in 2006 and it did not work---
I believe they are still trying something similar to see if it can get implemented---
Back of the envelope--needs work---comments and suggestions welcome
Unlikely to happen---In any event:
US Govt creates new entity---lets call it SAREPTAGOV funded with $2,000,000,000
special Notes issued 4% 10 year maturity interest and principal paid monthly
total monthly payments $20,249,027.63---$242,988,000 annual debt service
Drug gets approved by FDA
SAREPTAGOV buys out existing SRPT shareholders for $34.00 share---approx. $1,700,000,00
$300,000,000 left over to run company--get drug into production and drug provided free to patients.
Existing company rationalized--new management brought in perhaps former big Pharma CEO
some people from NIH---etc. This could be prototype for future companies to attack other diseases
Probably need total of $400,000,000+ annually to run company and service debt
Where does this come from?
Taxpayers if they chose to do so could have an additional $50.00 year added to tax bill
8,000,000 tax payers @ $50 = $400,000,000
or some of the big Foundations out there could contribute annually.
Existing SRPT shareholders in addition to receiving $34 share would have preferential
right to purchase the 10 year notes---
$100,000 in notes would generate $1,012.45 monthly payment
$20,000 in notes $202.49 monthly payment
Crash Program implemented similar to Manhatten Project in above format---Drug being given to kids by end of 2016.
I have not had opportunity yet to listen to call but was quite pleased with results---
Dividend should be covered this year and I am hopeful for $1.60 dividend next year
($.40 quarterly)----Will be suggesting to CEO that they transition to monthly
distributions---Would reduce to some degree volatility IMHO--
I do feel that Barry and the NEWT team are doing an excellent job.
I have spent a lot of time on this----Tricky stock....Tricky market
Have been doing this a long time 50 years+ (there are many that will say too long!...Ouch!)
In any event we should know much more at the end of the day-and more tomorrow.
It is a good idea to read the 10k at least once--tedious and complicated but it is best to
at least be aware of the litany of risk factors contained in the 10K.
Stock closed May 2nd at $12.37. First quarter results and conference call later this week
should be interesting ---we should have a better idea concerning full year outlook---
Assuming over the next 12 months the company pays out dividend of $1.50, and assuming
the price reaches even current NAV of $14.06 one year from now--this scenario would
result in a 25%+ rate of return (combining $1.50 dividend with $1.69 appreciation) -------
Further, IMHO there is a decent chance that NAV can increase from current $14.06 by at least $.50 over next year---- Hopefully as company gets better known and understood by institutional investors share
price will at least trade around NAV perhaps at a premium?
One thing that would help in my opinion in terms of reducing volatility would be to go to a
monthly dividend format from current quarterly--
Still, plenty of risks ---see SEC filings---