I hope you are right---$18.00 could be a stretch for a 2015 price target--not impossible though--
My approach involves the following analytic methodology:
Assume Tact earns approximately $.60 EPS on $60,000,000 in revenues 2014
Hopefully reveues will be greater than this.
It seems to me Tact can earn $.025 incremental per share on every $1 Million over the
$60,000,000 ---Thus if Tact can get revenues to $80,000,000 in 2015 EPS could come in
close to $1.10 in 2015--- Then what PE multiple? Depends on a lot of factors--
Meanwhile the sole street analyst following this company only has a $67 million revenue
estimate for 2015 --- and an EPS estimate of $.65---He could be quite low on both estimates.
Time will tell.
A lot will depend on Revenue traction coming from food safety terminal and a complete
resolution of Avery Dennison situation ----so far Tact seems to be prevailing in the litigation
but am unclear as to whether this is completely resolved.--Also new products introduced
this year could have a major positive impact on 2015 and beyond.
Withal, although risk factors (see SEC filings) are ever present, and continued due diligence efforts
required, IMHO Tact has the potential to reach your price target sometime in 2016.
If 2 1/2 years from now (September 2016) Tact were at $18 this would be a 24% annual rate
of return from today's $10.44 close (plus a decent dividend). Hopefully this will be conservative.
Sole "Street" analyst increased his EPS estimate for 2014 from $.07 to $.09 following
the conference call while maintaining revenue estimate of $57.8 million--
He also shows an estimate of $64,000,000 revenues for 2015 with EPS of $.13.--
Finally he maintains one year price target of $4.00.
Meanwhile on CHYR website a birdseye view of the 2014 NAB booth---
Three major Updates, Three new products and Great Coffee!
Unfortunately, yes---If both Siga and Pip were truly interested in something called
enhancement of shareholder value---the 20 combined directors of both companies
would appoint two three person teams and settle this---IHMO this could be
accomplished in three-four hours---meanwhile miilions of dollars in attorney fees
over lst six-seven years
It seems to me that this travesty will continue for a while longer
however, a decision by Judge Parsons should (theoretically) be coming soon.
Also perhaps the analyst is factoring in the non cash outflow expense associated with
mark to market accounting on Hego "earn out" shares, also perhaps severance expenses
for MWW and Jerry were expensed in the quarter---we will know soon.
CHYR currently trading at $2.50 is up 18% from the December 31, 2013 closing price at $2.12---this after
a 158% gain in 2013.
The sole analyst following this company has the following estimates:
4th Quarter 2013 loss of $.08 on estimated revenues of $14 million.
Full year 2014 Revenues $57.8 million
Full year 2014 EPS of $.07
OneYear Price Target $4.00 (If achieved a further 60% gain from current level)
Currently my own guesstimates for 2014 are as follows:
Revenues $58,000,000 with operating earnings per share of $.12 - $.14
Year end price target range $3.00 - $3.40 (hopefully conservative)
My preliminary guesstimate for Operating Earnings per Share in 2015 ---$.20 - $.22
This assumes $67,000,000 Revenues in 2015---12% Operating Margin--36,000,000+ shares outstanding
This scenario could theoretically support a stock target price range in first half of 2015 --$4.00-$4.40.
Stll, as always a lot of risk factors to consider---Continue with all due diligence efforts.
No reason that this travesty should be perpetuated---20 Combined Directors
Should stand up and get this over---both Siga and Pip shareholders would
benifit big time!
Hopefully a decent quarter---More important will be future guidance (if any)----
A reaffirmation of goal for 2015 of 8 - 10 percent EBITAR if achieved would
probably result in approximately $1.20 - $1.40 operating earnings per share
in 2015 ---should support a.stock price considerably higher than $7.90 current
price---seems to me a potential one year 50 perecent gain from here would be
a reasonable goal for an investor willing to assume the risks involved IMHO
Yes your methodology is theoretically correct IMHO -Best to think in terms of
$45.00 per share---and 10-11 multiple--resulting in $14 theoretical increase
hopefully conservative and your numbers could
turn out to be right--especially if thinking long term the effect of the stock buyback
will be increasing in terms of enhancing future earnings per share.
I would prefer a combination approach at this time implemented by BOD
(1) 20 for 1 stock split
(2) Increase in dividend over next year to $1.00 per share on split shares
(3) Phantom stock option plan implemented--no new shares issued ---thus
no dilution to partially offset the benefits of stock buyback
(4) a large well conceived acquisition immediately accretive to earnings
I agree---markets are currently very jittery and anything can happen --
however in a one year time frame---good chance for someone
establishing a position here to generate at least a 10% return over
the next 12 months and possibly a considerably greater return--
Your theory of "money migration to AAPL" seems to me
to be quite sound.
Possible, and I certainly hope that you are right--
IMHO we will get to your number and over, but it
will take some time. A lot of "cross currents"--
Just posted on ChyronHego Website
We have a "new company" in many respects
Presentation looks fine to me---crisp and elegant ---
Addressable market expanded greatly resulting from acquisition/merger
She or he who sells what isn't hers'n or his'n
must buy it back or go to pris'n
(old expression--updated to be politically correct)
One or two long term oriented institutional investors that become interested in this
situation and decide to accumulate a one or two million share position in ChyronHegor
will be very helpful in offsetting the probable profit taking that will be taking place
over the next few/several months.