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SIGA Technologies Inc. Message Board

caminocasa07 1319 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 9, 2016 8:41 PM Member since: Jan 11, 2007
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  • caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Feb 9, 2016 8:41 PM Flag

    Sorry fb--No credit!
    Section 1507(b) of the Rules and Regulations International Message Board Association (IMBA)
    is very clear on this.

  • Reply to

    SYNC

    by bodeebo Feb 3, 2016 5:26 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Feb 3, 2016 6:06 PM Flag

    I hope you are right---my own work does not involve technical analysis but from a fundamental
    standpoint-IMHO as I have posted on other threads this stock has the potential to work its way
    significantly higher over the next 12-18 months.

    GLTA

  • caminocasa07 by caminocasa07 Jan 28, 2016 8:05 AM Flag

    New Investor Presentation on SYNC website

  • caminocasa07 by caminocasa07 Jan 26, 2016 8:24 AM Flag

    Seems to me that this is appropriate to describe Main---
    Assuming that Main can average even $2.20 annual dividends going forward
    and gradually grow NAV-- (Not going to be easy)---this appears to be an
    attractive place to have some funds invested--Still plenty of risks involved---
    see SEC filings
    In any event $2.20 divided by current approx $28 works out to rate of return of 7.8%--

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    Valuation

    by caminocasa07 Jan 24, 2016 9:41 AM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jan 24, 2016 11:59 PM Flag

    oops--should be "potential"

  • Reply to

    Head Fake

    by caminocasa07 Feb 15, 2015 4:41 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jan 24, 2016 7:50 PM Flag

    Oops should be 1mg dose every 30 days----Not sure if new posters on this board have seen my idea posted nearly a year ago for this potential protocol--
    Perhaps this is being tried in secret testing program?

  • caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jan 24, 2016 5:48 PM Flag

    Sorry about your home situation---thank you for your service ---you are not alone and
    you could be right
    My own guess near term---a bounce to $30 which if attained over one month would
    represent a 99% annualized rate of return.

    Good luck to you and all.

  • Reply to

    clinical trials dot Gov updated

    by dig_a_little_deeper_1 Jan 23, 2016 10:58 AM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jan 24, 2016 1:21 PM Flag

    Out
    I agree with your positive outlook---
    I hope the cows do not have mad cow disease (I so not think they do)---so "full speed ahead!"

    GLTA

  • caminocasa07 by caminocasa07 Jan 24, 2016 9:41 AM Flag

    Currently with stock trading around $1.60 the "Market" (anthropomorphically) is "saying"
    that SYNC is worth 3X Enterprise Value ($30,000,000) divided by 2016 EBITDA ($10,000,000)---
    ($10,000,000 is my guesstimate of EBITDA this year)---

    Although still risks, ---3X multiple seems very low to me---Perhaps "Market" knows something that I do not--
    Always need to respect the "Market" ---- In any event I need to do additional research on this
    company---As posted on another thread IMHO stock has potentgial to
    grind its way to a considerably higher EV/EBITDA valuation over next 12-18 months.

    Two "Street" analysts following this stock per Yahoo finance---one has $2,50 one year target price,
    the other $2.95 target price---I am thinking/hoping somewhat higher---

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    February 2 Disclosure Statement

    by cash2go Jan 21, 2016 11:34 AM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jan 21, 2016 10:29 PM Flag

    Could not agree more---
    I have more trust in Iran not violating the nuclear deal than I do with any
    commitment/"promise" from SIGA/MAFCO---

  • caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jan 20, 2016 12:43 AM Flag

    very good jones--very good

  • Reply to

    New Year

    by aussieaye Jan 19, 2016 3:45 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jan 19, 2016 10:13 PM Flag

    I am not sure that the stock realizes that this is a new year

    GLTA

  • caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jan 18, 2016 11:13 PM Flag

    Could be---However stock futures up at this time---

  • Reply to

    12-18 Month Price Target---$3.40 - $3.80

    by caminocasa07 Jan 14, 2016 1:20 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jan 16, 2016 3:53 PM Flag

    Thanks commonsense---
    My numbers and price target range guesstimates shown above are hopefully
    conservative and there is a possibility of expansion in the ev to ebitda ratio and if that
    should materialize we could potentially be talking about a $4-$6 price target range ---
    Much will depend on excellent execution on growth initiatives by management, including
    importantly, results and synergism dynamics associated with the Zimbra acquisition--
    For now, personally will stay with $3.40 - $3.80 guess/price target range (we have
    to get there before the higher numbers are attained)
    Meanwhile, I feel SYNC will increasingly be regarded as an acquisition candidate--

    It seems that I am the only one posting on this board that likes the idea of a modest
    stock repurchase program to be carried out over the next 4-5 years--Although I am
    not wedded to this, and probably won't mention this again--- IMHO such a program would
    have a major salutary impact on the stock price Consider:

    $16M cash on hand-- Plus $12M+ annual free cash flow being generated over next
    3-4 years (hopefully)---

    I am suggesting only a very modest $2-3M annual stock repurchase program over next
    4 years ----- Leaves plenty of $$$ still available to carry out growth initiatves----
    The proposed stock repurchase program would
    (a) Offset significant dilution from issuance of stock options--
    (b) Reinforce perception that we do have a "shareholder friendly management"
    (c) Repurchasing stock is in essence "an acquisition"---(of our own company)
    (d) Will smooth out vicissitudes in stock price gyrations---Currently when blocks appear
    it takes a long time to work off---tends to put lid on stock price---
    (e) Will support price in major overall market selloffs--
    f) Will result in enhanced EPS in future years
    (g) Will result in a significantlyt higher $$ value per share for current shareholders in event company
    is acquired----

    SYNC is acting well in a very tough overall market
    GLTA

  • Although still plenty of risks (see SEC filings)---In my opinion the stock continues to be
    significantly undervalued at current price ($1.64--- I thought that Himesh did finel with his presentation
    today at the Needham conference.
    With approximately $16 million cash on hand at end of 2015 and with a decent chance that cash will
    be well over $20 million at end of this year and over 28 million at end of 2017 --this after $2 million
    outflow for earn out related to Zimbra acquisition. This also assumes $2-4 Million outflow for stock
    repurchase program if BOD were inclined to implement such a program. (As posted previously
    I would like to see a $10 million stock repurchase program to be carried out over next
    4 years)---Plenty of cash would be available for such a program and also cash available for a small acquisition.

    Still no long term debt.

    Thus assuming:
    Approximately 28 million shares outstanding mid-2017
    EBITDA running at at approximately $11.5 million in 2017 (could be higher)
    Cash at approximately $26 million mid 2017
    Enterprise Value (Market Cap - Cash)--- 28M shares X $3.80= $106.4 Million-$26.4M Cash= $80MillionEV
    A valuation of EV to EBITA 7X ?? ($80M EV divided by $11.5M EBITDA (2017) = 6.95X
    A Reasonable Price Target Goal mid 2017---$3.80---hopefully conservative.

    To be even more conservative assume discount to $3.40 which would be a double from here over the
    next 18 months---an annualized rate of return of nearly 60%--

    The above guesstimates (subject to change as events unfold) represent only my own approach
    to this situation---Others I am quite sure have considerably higher price targets, and hopefully
    my numbers and price target goals will turn out to be very conservative.

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    FYI

    by boardwalk97 Jan 9, 2016 1:50 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jan 10, 2016 1:01 PM Flag

    Do you have any estimate/guess what percentage of SYNC revenues in 2016 will come from
    Content Marketing?

    Thanks in advance---Hopefully Presentation at Needham conference will be helpful---
    I would like to see the company prepare something that would enable a non-technology
    person such as myself (my background is financial) to understand exactly what SYNC
    does--the type of service provided to our customers in each "revenue silo"---Although
    the company website is excellent IMHO the explanation of the services and products
    offfered although well intentioned (and importantly is well understood by SYNC cliient/customers)
    still seems toi me complicated for the average investor to understand.-----Perhaps I am the only
    one that is having difficulty with this-----

    In any event from a financial perspective IMHO the stock (currently $1.70) seems undervalued
    if operating metrics develop as anticipated over the next year or so--

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    With Google the lion share of revenues

    by boardwalk97 Jan 4, 2016 2:53 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jan 6, 2016 11:29 PM Flag

    Yes IMHO would be an attractive acquisition candidate----Board of Directors does not
    seem inclined to explore this at this time--hopefully they could be persuaded otherwise---
    Nevertheless Sync, as a standalone company should grind its way higher over next
    12-18 months unless there is a pretty major market meltdown (which is possible)--
    Would like to see an additional $6 million in operating cost reductions over the next year--
    Needham conference presentation next week hopefully will trigger some buying interest.

    Sync should be strongly cash flow positive this year---cash on hand at end of 2016
    should be well over $20 Million --no debt---Continue to feel a large stock repurchase
    program to be carried out over next 4 years would be well received by "The Street"

    GLTA

  • caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jan 6, 2016 9:26 AM Flag

    Yes---Sustainable recurring revenues is the name of the game for BSQR
    Also---of course the revenues have to be highly profitable---
    This company/stock is very difficult to anaylze currently---management
    has not given out a lot of information related to the size of the addressable market
    for DataV ------ Could BSQR be generating in 2017
    $5,000,000 Data V Revenues?
    $10,000,000 Data V Revenues?
    $20,000,000 Data V Revenues?
    BSQR IMHO needs to develop Wall Street coverage from one or two
    well regarded Research firms so that investors can have a model for
    Revenues, EPS, Est 3-5 year growth rate etc.

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    free fall GOOG to 500 ha ha all fool buyers

    by kopach Jan 4, 2016 8:06 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jan 4, 2016 10:30 PM Flag

    Was it a Ponzi Scheme or a Pyramid Scheme?----Probably does not matter---It was a Scheme---

  • Reply to

    Food for thought from the peanut gallary!

    by bourbonisbest Jan 1, 2016 4:26 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jan 1, 2016 4:45 PM Flag

    Great job bourbon!---

    Best wishes for a Happy and Healthy 2016 to you and to all.

SIGA
2.460.0000(0.00%)Mar 13 4:00 PMEDT