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SIGA Technologies Inc. Message Board

caminocasa07 43 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 16, 2016 8:51 AM Member since: Jan 11, 2007
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  • caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 16, 2016 8:51 AM Flag

    Yes- you will receive the dividend around June 30th -but stock will open lower
    by approx. the amount of the dividend ($.35) as explained in my other post---

    Near term, next week or so not too much likely to happen and stock could
    move lower as some investors will exit now that they have received the
    dividend---Longer term I am hoping for something like this to happen:

    Someone buying or holding the stock today (June 16th) at or around $12.00--
    Potentially will receive 2 dividends this year of $.41--total of $.82
    and let us assume 4 dividends in 2017 of $.40 each or $1.60--
    Further assume the stock grinds its way to $14.00/- ?? between now and
    end of 2017----a gain of $2.00
    This would result in potential total return of $.82 + $1.60 + $2.00 or $4.42
    thus from $12 (current price) to $16.42--- (adding total return to $12) by end of 2017
    (18 months from now) works out to annualized rate of return of approximately 22.8%--By no means a sure thing--- There are many risks here (see SEC filings) and stock will be volatile.
    It could go lower before moving higher--Patience will be required for those
    who "wish to play the hand out" and hold for the long term.

    I hope this helps and GLTA

  • caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 15, 2016 8:44 PM Flag

    Note however, stock likely to go down tomorrow by approx. $.35 as
    anyone buying the stock tomorrow will not receive the dividend---
    This is not for sure however ----sometimes stock will trade
    at, or even above the previous day's close on ex-dividend day---
    My guess is opening somewhere between $2.10 and $2.20.
    GLTA

  • caminocasa07 by caminocasa07 Jun 10, 2016 8:42 PM Flag

    A very good article to peruse over the weekend.

  • Reply to

    $15+ pricetarget

    by caminocasa07 Mar 28, 2016 7:58 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 9, 2016 1:04 PM Flag

    More Ruminations:

    Stock now at $12.70+/- ---Higher than where we were on May 2nd ($12.37) but
    down from low $13's a week or so ago---One factor in possible contributing to
    weakness is the special meeting requested to seek approval of shareholders for
    authorization to issue stock below asset value of up to 20% of shares outstanding---which are
    approximately 14,500,000--thus potentially an additional 2,900,000 additional shares.
    Investors are concerned about dilution- The authorization does not mean that
    any stock offering will be forthcoming in near future but does give mgmt. flexibility
    going forward. Will have some additional analysis shortly on this showing actually
    quite minimal dilution in NAV from any such offering, (largely, if not completlely
    offset over the next 6 months by increase in NAV from operations).

    Also will have some additional analysis shortly showing a potential annualized rate of
    return of approximately 12% even if NEWT stock were to decline to $12.40 from
    current $12.70 and end up at the end of 2017 stll at $12.40.

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    $15+ pricetarget

    by caminocasa07 Mar 28, 2016 7:58 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 8, 2016 6:51 PM Flag

    I thought Barry did a fine job on today's' webcast.

    The Investor Presentation has been updated.
    2nd quarter dividend should be announced shortly
    with ex-dividend toward the end of the month.

    Although risks ever present, with stock now at $12.90,
    IMHO decent chance for 12%+ dividend return plus
    quite significant appreciation potential between now and
    end of 2017. Will still need excellent execution on the
    part of the whole NEWT team.

    GLTA

  • caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 8, 2016 12:21 PM Flag

    Newt @ $12.90 IMHO has potential for near term and long term appreciation---
    Stock is volatile and can trade thinly at times---As always need to be aware of risk factors
    (see SEC filings)----

    Barry will be presenting at LD Micro Invitational at 12:30 EST. and I am anticipating that
    he will do well in this format---
    GLTA

  • NOTICE IS HEREBY GIVEN that a Special Meeting of Shareholders (the “Meeting”) of Newtek Business Services
    will be held at 2711 South Ocean Drive, Hollywood, FL 33019 on July 27, 2016 at 10:00 a.m., local time.

    The Meeting is for the following purpose, which is more completely described in the accompanying Proxy Statement:

    1. To approve a proposal to authorize the Company to sell shares of its common stock, par value $0.02 per share, at a price below the then current net asset value per share of such common stock in one or multiple offerings, subject to certain limitations described in the accompanying Proxy Statement (including that the number of shares sold on any given date does not exceed 20% of its outstanding common stock immediately prior to such sale).

    This will probably be discussed at LD Micro Invitational on June 8th---

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    Where to from here?

    by caminocasa07 May 24, 2016 11:21 AM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 5, 2016 9:17 AM Flag

    maybyabe---you were right---$20m too high
    From 2015 10K Exhibit section--At December 31,2015:
    Federal NOL carryforwards approximately $7.9 million
    State NOL carryforwards approximately $7.6 million

    Should be higher at end of 2016.

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    Where to from here?

    by caminocasa07 May 24, 2016 11:21 AM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 2, 2016 2:38 PM Flag

    Yes next $20M of operating income will be largely free of tax--(may have small amount
    of foreign taxes---the number could be higher or lower but that is approximate)---
    This year we will probably have another loss from operations primarily
    due to depreciation and amortization expense and stock compensation expense
    (non cash outflow items)

    But I need to check more on this---
    Will pore over 10K and see if I can get an exact number.

  • Reply to

    Where to from here?

    by caminocasa07 May 24, 2016 11:21 AM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 2, 2016 12:10 PM Flag

    Stock acting well today--Could be high frequency traders momentum players et.al. more involved.
    In 2017 strong free cash flow generation possible----Assuming no acquisitions I am currently
    guesstimating that cash on hand end of 2017 in excess of $30,000,000.

    Another point not mentioned previously--NOL's at end of 2016 should be greater than $20,000,000

    GLTA

  • Well at least it could be---Have been receiving reports today that he has been sighted
    by several individuals----in Louisville Kentucky--yesterday in a Memorial Day Parade
    (carrying a baseball bat), and today at the Hillerich & Bradsby Louisville Slugger Bat
    factory and museum at Eighth and Main Streets----Apparently he is having 100 bats
    made for him personalized with GaINAcing GaINAc and his holdencf signature on
    his Louisville Slugger bats similar to the Ted Willaims model.

    Inforrmation is still a little sketchy---some say he looks a little unkempt and disheveled--
    others say he looks trim, dapper and debonair----I prefer to think the latter.
    Will attempt to keep the Board informed as further information is received and processed.

  • caminocasa07 by caminocasa07 May 26, 2016 8:27 AM Flag

    Looks like this initiative is gaining traction.

  • Reply to

    Where to from here?

    by caminocasa07 May 24, 2016 11:21 AM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 May 24, 2016 12:42 PM Flag

    Good question---Himesh, I believe stated as a goal---$225,000,000 revenues in 2017--
    Hopefully that number factors into the analytical equation the possibility of some loss
    of revenues from various current customer/clients---Up til now Himesh has been
    conservative in stated goals re: revenues, ebita etc. Implicit in all of this is the need for
    management to run "a tight ship" and achieve solid profitability (not just solid ebitda)---

  • caminocasa07 by caminocasa07 May 24, 2016 11:21 AM Flag

    Prior to the AT&T deal I had been advocating for over a year that BOD find strategic buyer--thinking
    that a valuation of somewhere between $3 and $4 would be possible--
    The AT&T deal is a potential game changer for Sync ----still will require solid execution.
    In any event AT&T plus other initiatives launched in the last 12-18 months under leadership
    of Himesh could, and hopefully will propel this stock to much higher levels in 2017-2019.

    Personally, I feel comfortable holding, and adding to an already overweighted position
    at or around the current $2.75-$2.84 price levels. Anything can happen of course and in a
    weak overall market stock could go lower from here----.

    The rationale that I am using, simplictically (although there are many other metrics) is that
    IMHO this stock could trade at 1X Revenues in 2017---Assuming $225,000,000 Revenues
    in 2017 and assuming 34,000,000 shares (after recent options issued)--- a reasonable
    2017 price target of $6.62?---OK reduce to $6.00 to be conservative---In any event a
    potential 115% +/- one year rate of return?

    Everyone should continue due diligence efforts and be aware of risks involved (see SEC filings)

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    $15+ pricetarget

    by caminocasa07 Mar 28, 2016 7:58 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 May 21, 2016 4:57 PM Flag

    Hi Jan

    You seem to have a very good handle on this--Your thoughts
    are most appreciated. -I too have spent several hours in the analytical effort.--As mentioned earlier have been engaged in this type of effort for a long time..

    IMHO NEWT should work higher from here---between now and end of June assume some investors will be "buying the dividend" which I am guessing will be $.38 Dividend should be announced in mid-June with ex dividend around June 28th---Every day It is getting closer to the point where a holder of the stock will in effect
    be receiving 5 quarterly dividends in a 12/13 month time frame

    I continue to feel it would be good if they convert to a monthly
    dividend format perhaps later this year when they hopefully are building excess cash to enable a "smoothing out" of the
    lumpiness in i-quarterly earnings to enable a monthly dividend program

    More importantly is the long term outlook which at this point looks
    favorable---although there are risks one of which is
    execution risk----not too much room for any major glitches-
    There are a lot of moving parts here-

    My crystal ball (Ol' Jenny) gets a little hazy the further out
    in the time zone that I set for her..

    Best wishes to you and all for success on the"Newt adventure"!

  • caminocasa07 by caminocasa07 May 21, 2016 10:44 AM Flag

    A very good article out today on Seeking Alpha
    Balanced, and with an excellent analysis/discussion of DataV potential.
    GLTA

  • Reply to

    ADDED AT 2.98

    by mabyabe May 20, 2016 12:27 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 May 21, 2016 9:42 AM Flag

    Thanks

    It would be good if there were more Wall Street coverage with emphasis on the
    SYNC long term value proposition. Currently IMHO the stock is being flipped around by
    day traders, momentum players, hedge funds high frequency traders etc.
    Ultimately value will prevail and am optimistic that at this time next year we will
    be trading higher than the Rosenblatt $4.50 price target (although a 50% gain from here
    after the more than 100% gain in the last few weeks would still be Ok with me).

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    ADDED AT 2.98

    by mabyabe May 20, 2016 12:27 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 May 20, 2016 4:27 PM Flag

    One analyst with one year price target ($4.50)---could possibly be
    Laura/Needham

  • Reply to

    Manipulation Well Executed

    by jwtechy May 18, 2016 4:30 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 May 19, 2016 9:27 AM Flag

    The best book on this "Flash Boys" by Michael Lewis---worth reading IMHO

  • Reply to

    2's almost here :-)

    by tradingexpert4me May 17, 2016 3:01 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 May 17, 2016 9:15 PM Flag

    sync

    Profit taking after huge run-up + weak overall market---
    Market makers largely gone---replaced by computers
    Best book on this subject "Flash Boys" by Michael Lewis---worth reading.
    Since AT&T deal Volatility greatly increased with hedge funds, day traders, momentum players
    and high frequency traders probably all involved

    IMHO a 1X Revenue valuation metric would be appropriate later this year---
    Assuming $130,000,000 Revenues in 2016 approx. and assuming approx.
    34,000,000 shares (which includes option shares not in money)--
    it seems to me that a $3.80 price would be reasonable later this year---
    a gain of 27% from today's $2.98 close. Then hopefully onward and upward
    in 2017, 2018 and 2019.

    GLTA

SIGA
0.87-0.0300(-3.33%)Jun 24 3:55 PMEDT