Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

SIGA Technologies Inc. Message Board

caminocasa07 36 posts  |  Last Activity: May 26, 2016 8:27 AM Member since: Jan 11, 2007
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • caminocasa07 by caminocasa07 May 26, 2016 8:27 AM Flag

    Looks like this initiative is gaining traction.

  • Reply to

    Where to from here?

    by caminocasa07 May 24, 2016 11:21 AM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 May 24, 2016 12:42 PM Flag

    Good question---Himesh, I believe stated as a goal---$225,000,000 revenues in 2017--
    Hopefully that number factors into the analytical equation the possibility of some loss
    of revenues from various current customer/clients---Up til now Himesh has been
    conservative in stated goals re: revenues, ebita etc. Implicit in all of this is the need for
    management to run "a tight ship" and achieve solid profitability (not just solid ebitda)---

  • caminocasa07 by caminocasa07 May 24, 2016 11:21 AM Flag

    Prior to the AT&T deal I had been advocating for over a year that BOD find strategic buyer--thinking
    that a valuation of somewhere between $3 and $4 would be possible--
    The AT&T deal is a potential game changer for Sync ----still will require solid execution.
    In any event AT&T plus other initiatives launched in the last 12-18 months under leadership
    of Himesh could, and hopefully will propel this stock to much higher levels in 2017-2019.

    Personally, I feel comfortable holding, and adding to an already overweighted position
    at or around the current $2.75-$2.84 price levels. Anything can happen of course and in a
    weak overall market stock could go lower from here----.

    The rationale that I am using, simplictically (although there are many other metrics) is that
    IMHO this stock could trade at 1X Revenues in 2017---Assuming $225,000,000 Revenues
    in 2017 and assuming 34,000,000 shares (after recent options issued)--- a reasonable
    2017 price target of $6.62?---OK reduce to $6.00 to be conservative---In any event a
    potential 115% +/- one year rate of return?

    Everyone should continue due diligence efforts and be aware of risks involved (see SEC filings)

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    $15+ pricetarget

    by caminocasa07 Mar 28, 2016 7:58 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 May 21, 2016 4:57 PM Flag

    Hi Jan

    You seem to have a very good handle on this--Your thoughts
    are most appreciated. -I too have spent several hours in the analytical effort.--As mentioned earlier have been engaged in this type of effort for a long time..

    IMHO NEWT should work higher from here---between now and end of June assume some investors will be "buying the dividend" which I am guessing will be $.38 Dividend should be announced in mid-June with ex dividend around June 28th---Every day It is getting closer to the point where a holder of the stock will in effect
    be receiving 5 quarterly dividends in a 12/13 month time frame

    I continue to feel it would be good if they convert to a monthly
    dividend format perhaps later this year when they hopefully are building excess cash to enable a "smoothing out" of the
    lumpiness in i-quarterly earnings to enable a monthly dividend program

    More importantly is the long term outlook which at this point looks
    favorable---although there are risks one of which is
    execution risk----not too much room for any major glitches-
    There are a lot of moving parts here-

    My crystal ball (Ol' Jenny) gets a little hazy the further out
    in the time zone that I set for her..

    Best wishes to you and all for success on the"Newt adventure"!

  • caminocasa07 by caminocasa07 May 21, 2016 10:44 AM Flag

    A very good article out today on Seeking Alpha
    Balanced, and with an excellent analysis/discussion of DataV potential.
    GLTA

  • Reply to

    ADDED AT 2.98

    by mabyabe May 20, 2016 12:27 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 May 21, 2016 9:42 AM Flag

    Thanks

    It would be good if there were more Wall Street coverage with emphasis on the
    SYNC long term value proposition. Currently IMHO the stock is being flipped around by
    day traders, momentum players, hedge funds high frequency traders etc.
    Ultimately value will prevail and am optimistic that at this time next year we will
    be trading higher than the Rosenblatt $4.50 price target (although a 50% gain from here
    after the more than 100% gain in the last few weeks would still be Ok with me).

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    ADDED AT 2.98

    by mabyabe May 20, 2016 12:27 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 May 20, 2016 4:27 PM Flag

    One analyst with one year price target ($4.50)---could possibly be
    Laura/Needham

  • Reply to

    Manipulation Well Executed

    by jwtechy May 18, 2016 4:30 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 May 19, 2016 9:27 AM Flag

    The best book on this "Flash Boys" by Michael Lewis---worth reading IMHO

  • Reply to

    2's almost here :-)

    by tradingexpert4me May 17, 2016 3:01 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 May 17, 2016 9:15 PM Flag

    sync

    Profit taking after huge run-up + weak overall market---
    Market makers largely gone---replaced by computers
    Best book on this subject "Flash Boys" by Michael Lewis---worth reading.
    Since AT&T deal Volatility greatly increased with hedge funds, day traders, momentum players
    and high frequency traders probably all involved

    IMHO a 1X Revenue valuation metric would be appropriate later this year---
    Assuming $130,000,000 Revenues in 2016 approx. and assuming approx.
    34,000,000 shares (which includes option shares not in money)--
    it seems to me that a $3.80 price would be reasonable later this year---
    a gain of 27% from today's $2.98 close. Then hopefully onward and upward
    in 2017, 2018 and 2019.

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    $15+ pricetarget

    by caminocasa07 Mar 28, 2016 7:58 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 May 17, 2016 7:54 PM Flag

    Another Seeking Alpha article on Newt out today---5-17-2016---
    Author appears cautiously optimistic.
    Personally, I am much more positive.
    Still, with overall market very volatile with a downward bias,
    probably best to accumulate gradually--anything can happen.
    Continue to feel that a monthly dividend format would be a positive

  • Reply to

    New Plan

    by caminocasa07 May 17, 2016 9:33 AM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 May 17, 2016 10:16 AM Flag

    Yes Thanks Cop---
    You are correct--It was tried on Mars in 1992 and again in 2006 and it did not work---
    I believe they are still trying something similar to see if it can get implemented---

  • caminocasa07 by caminocasa07 May 17, 2016 9:33 AM Flag

    Back of the envelope--needs work---comments and suggestions welcome
    Unlikely to happen---In any event:

    US Govt creates new entity---lets call it SAREPTAGOV funded with $2,000,000,000
    special Notes issued 4% 10 year maturity interest and principal paid monthly
    total monthly payments $20,249,027.63---$242,988,000 annual debt service

    Drug gets approved by FDA

    SAREPTAGOV buys out existing SRPT shareholders for $34.00 share---approx. $1,700,000,00

    $300,000,000 left over to run company--get drug into production and drug provided free to patients.
    Existing company rationalized--new management brought in perhaps former big Pharma CEO
    some people from NIH---etc. This could be prototype for future companies to attack other diseases

    Probably need total of $400,000,000+ annually to run company and service debt
    Where does this come from?
    Taxpayers if they chose to do so could have an additional $50.00 year added to tax bill
    8,000,000 tax payers @ $50 = $400,000,000
    or some of the big Foundations out there could contribute annually.

    Existing SRPT shareholders in addition to receiving $34 share would have preferential
    right to purchase the 10 year notes---

    $100,000 in notes would generate $1,012.45 monthly payment
    $20,000 in notes $202.49 monthly payment

    Crash Program implemented similar to Manhatten Project in above format---Drug being given to kids by end of 2016.

    GLTA

  • caminocasa07 caminocasa07 May 13, 2016 12:21 AM Flag

    mud

    Best wishes!

  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by budwasgreat May 5, 2016 9:27 AM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 May 5, 2016 11:16 AM Flag

    bud----Yes---

    I have not had opportunity yet to listen to call but was quite pleased with results---
    Dividend should be covered this year and I am hopeful for $1.60 dividend next year
    ($.40 quarterly)----Will be suggesting to CEO that they transition to monthly
    distributions---Would reduce to some degree volatility IMHO--

    I do feel that Barry and the NEWT team are doing an excellent job.

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    How do ya like me now!!!

    by mabyabe May 4, 2016 5:52 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 May 4, 2016 5:55 PM Flag

    good job May!

  • Reply to

    SYNC + ATT

    by castleenterprises79 May 4, 2016 4:52 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 May 4, 2016 4:56 PM Flag

    I think we can put that in the good news column!

  • caminocasa07 by caminocasa07 May 4, 2016 4:40 PM Flag

    Shows SYNC trading at $2.50+ in after hours

  • Reply to

    $15+ pricetarget

    by caminocasa07 Mar 28, 2016 7:58 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 May 4, 2016 2:37 PM Flag

    Thanks Jan

    I have spent a lot of time on this----Tricky stock....Tricky market
    Have been doing this a long time 50 years+ (there are many that will say too long!...Ouch!)
    In any event we should know much more at the end of the day-and more tomorrow.
    It is a good idea to read the 10k at least once--tedious and complicated but it is best to
    at least be aware of the litany of risk factors contained in the 10K.

  • Reply to

    $15+ pricetarget

    by caminocasa07 Mar 28, 2016 7:58 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 May 3, 2016 9:09 AM Flag

    Stock closed May 2nd at $12.37. First quarter results and conference call later this week
    should be interesting ---we should have a better idea concerning full year outlook---

    Assuming over the next 12 months the company pays out dividend of $1.50, and assuming
    the price reaches even current NAV of $14.06 one year from now--this scenario would
    result in a 25%+ rate of return (combining $1.50 dividend with $1.69 appreciation) -------
    Further, IMHO there is a decent chance that NAV can increase from current $14.06 by at least $.50 over next year---- Hopefully as company gets better known and understood by institutional investors share
    price will at least trade around NAV perhaps at a premium?

    One thing that would help in my opinion in terms of reducing volatility would be to go to a
    monthly dividend format from current quarterly--

    Still, plenty of risks ---see SEC filings---

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    Now what

    by pskmed Apr 25, 2016 9:30 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Apr 25, 2016 9:33 PM Flag

    My Vote:

    We put this to bed for the night and hit it again in the morning.

SIGA
0.75+0.0450(+6.38%)May 27 3:58 PMEDT