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SIGA Technologies, AŞ Message Board

caminocasa07 136 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 2, 2015 9:23 AM Member since: Jan 11, 2007
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  • Reply to

    ARC-ATT Present Value?

    by caminocasa07 May 7, 2015 9:11 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 11, 2015 9:52 AM Flag

    IMHO---a good idea---although others will disagree and they may be right-
    Perhaps best to go for this alone---however,your suggestion would
    certainly derisk this situation.

  • Reply to

    ARC-ATT Present Value?

    by caminocasa07 May 7, 2015 9:11 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 11, 2015 8:18 AM Flag

    OOPS!---Should be Assume "Market accords a 5X Mu;tiple
    of ARC-ATT Revenues in 2017 $5,000,000,000

  • Reply to

    ARC-ATT Present Value?

    by caminocasa07 May 7, 2015 9:11 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 11, 2015 8:14 AM Flag

    Making a couple of changes in the assumptions:

    Possibility for $1,000,000 ARC-ATT Revenues in 2017?

    Assume "Market" accords a 5X Multiple of ARC-ATT Revenues in 2017 #$%$000,000,000

    Assume company has raised additional equity funds by issuing another
    16,000,000 shares @ $10,00----$160,000,000---New shares outstanding 80,000,000=/-(2017)

    $5,000,000,000 divided by 80,000,000 shares = $62.50 ---Potential Value ARWR in 2017
    (just for ARC-ATT))

    Discounted for risk @ 25% ---Works out to Present Value of ARWR Just for ARC-ATT:

    $40.00--PRESENT VALUE ARWR (Today--- theoretically)

    Well, a lot of assumptions here that may be off, but IMHO a good starting point for
    further analysis in terms of methodology----There are many posting on this board much
    smarter than me that could run with this valuation methodology not only for ARC-ATT but
    for valuing the whole company---

    GLTA

  • caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 10, 2015 10:21 PM Flag

    Good question and no one really knows the answer---
    My guess---choppy and volatile with a slight overall upward bias until end of June---
    There could be window dressing going on heading into month end--

    Starting in July---continued choppiness and volatility---stock trades between $7.00 -$7.50
    in July ---
    Assuming no major correction in overall market, and possibly some good news from overseas--
    IMHO decent chance for stock to be quite strong through July and August---and heading
    into September--I am guessing $9.00+/----
    From early September 'til AD possible move to $10.00?--

    All just a guess at this point, and a feeble attempt to answer your question---

  • Reply to

    Wall Streets supercomputers

    by ockiote Jun 10, 2015 4:00 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 10, 2015 10:05 PM Flag

    Probably best not to eat before retiring---but agree with the rest of your
    comments---
    GLTA

  • caminocasa07 by caminocasa07 Jun 10, 2015 1:43 PM Flag

    See Website---"Team"

  • caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 10, 2015 8:55 AM Flag

    Orphan Designation---Yes

    However FDA Approval Status:
    "Not FDA Approved for Orphan Indication"

    Apparently "Orphan Designation" is first step for "FDA Approval"?

  • Reply to

    How about a huge share buyback...?

    by keltus1952 Jun 9, 2015 11:05 AM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 9, 2015 2:15 PM Flag

    IMHO---Kel's plan is crisper, neater and potentially quicker---
    To quote Macbeth---"If it were done when 'tis done, 'twere well
    it were done quickly"---

  • Reply to

    How about a huge share buyback...?

    by keltus1952 Jun 9, 2015 11:05 AM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 9, 2015 1:36 PM Flag

    Kel

    This is 100% your idea and It is terrific IMHO, and do not wish to intrude one iota---
    Would you consider a 20% liquidation---raising over $1,200,000,000?---
    This would still leave over $5,000,000,000 in assets---still a very large BDC---

    Funds raised could be used to retire perhaps $400,000,000 in debt

    Remainder of $800,000,000+ used to repurchase 100,000,000 shares in a
    massive stock buyback---

    This would reduce shares outstanding to approximately 260,000,000 from 360,000,000+/-
    currently---

    Dividend payouts from PSEC would be reduced by $100,000,000 annually----

    This accompanied by scrapping of spinoff deal, and reducing excessive management
    compensation by going to internally managed structure---would jump start the
    stock dramatically---

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    SLOW MOTION CRASH.........

    by slicktop4 Jun 9, 2015 12:07 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 9, 2015 12:11 PM Flag

    Slick

    You have been very right on this stock--

    Any thoughts on kel's suggestion to liquidate 10% of assets
    use money to buy stock in open market with massive buyback program

  • Reply to

    How about a huge share buyback...?

    by keltus1952 Jun 9, 2015 11:05 AM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 9, 2015 11:42 AM Flag

    Well--I would strongly prefer that they liquidate the whole company as I suggested on another
    thread---your idea is the next best idea, with a much better chance of implementation
    (still probably unlikely, but nevertheless, a chance)----Simultaneously with your recommendation,
    I would suggest:
    (1) Management adopt an internally managed structure, no longer tied to assets under management
    metric--They can still be extremely well compensated---
    (2) Scrap the spinoffs

  • caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 8, 2015 9:55 PM Flag

    just "googled" the article---it is right there---not removed.

  • Reply to

    selling might be overdone

    by big_bags_o_cash312 Jun 8, 2015 10:22 AM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 8, 2015 11:23 AM Flag

    IMHO
    Stock would appreciate sharply from current level ($7.53)
    Chances of this happening are probably very low---

    Main Street Capital (MAIN internally managed) has been a stellar performer---
    Interestingly, in the last Investor Presentation when PSEC compares their
    stock performance with their peers, they conveniently do not show
    the comparison with MAIN--Compare MAIN with PSEC for any time period using
    Interactive Yahoo Chart---

    My Vote would be to scrap the spinoffs and sell all the PSEC assets to MAIN----
    PSEC shareholders receive stock in MAIN-----
    This unlikely to happen also---
    GLTA

  • Reply to

    Eradicating viral diseases presentation

    by holo7gram Jun 8, 2015 2:05 AM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 8, 2015 8:44 AM Flag

    Positive--although a little dated---2014---
    GLTA

  • Reply to

    New Plan---Liquidate the Company

    by caminocasa07 Jun 3, 2015 1:42 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 7, 2015 2:36 PM Flag

    Well after more work on this, I have a high degree of conviction that an orderly liquidation of this
    company is the right thing for management to do, although extremely unlikely, as indicated above,
    and as others have expressed ---New figures---Based on current price of $7.60---

    Assume assets could be sold in 5 months and $9.20 (net) realized, after all debt
    extinguished. 5 months of dividends at $.0833 = $.42 + $1.60 (appreciation =
    $2.02 (lets round down to $2.00)

    $2.00 overall gain from $7.60 = $9.60 realized over 5 months works out to approximate
    63% annualized rate of return--

    Note if only $9.00 net realized, and it took six months instead of five months for
    the deed to be done--the annualized rate of return (assuming 6 months of dividends)----
    would be 50%----

    Another possible scenario (involving some degree of hope),not as good as liquidation IMHO
    but forgetting what has happened over the last year, and calculating only from current price of $7.60----:

    Assume management somehow, someway, regains the trust and confidence of investors,
    and further assume monthly dividends continue at $$.0833 + an extra of $.34 in each of the
    next two years = $2.68 and assume stock rebounds to $9.00 in this time frame (+$1.40)
    Total dollar return = $4.08-----This works out to an annualized rate of return of 23.97%---
    That scenario would probably outperform the overall market---How likely that this (or something
    even better) could materialize?? ---Would be interested in all objective thoughts on this question.

    Just my opinion ----In any event Best of luck to all---

  • Reply to

    Great Minds of investors

    by end2war Jun 5, 2015 10:24 AM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 6, 2015 8:26 PM Flag

    End

    Have ordered your book from Amazon--
    Best of luck with this and hope it becomes a best seller!

  • caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 6, 2015 10:12 AM Flag

    Two+ cents a year---Not too shabby----Also do not forget some dividends along the way---
    OK the stock has been very disappointing---But that was then, this is now--Where to from here?

  • caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 4, 2015 4:19 PM Flag

    Yes---with stock currently @ $7.74, even if one is short term oriented, this has potential
    to work well over next 3-4 months---as suggested on another thread--I am currently thinking
    of 40% potential annualized return over that time frame---Still, plenty of risks out there--
    "a lot of snakes in the grass"----
    GLTA

  • Reply to

    4 Fundamental Reasons PPS is down

    by briskit44 Jun 4, 2015 8:37 AM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 4, 2015 4:08 PM Flag

    Actually---Assuming just plus $.06 with an extra dividend sometime in
    next few months would result in an annualized return in excess of 40%
    IF the above scenario were to materialize (Still a big IF)----
    Stock actually acted well in a difficult day in overall market.

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    New Plan---Liquidate the Company

    by caminocasa07 Jun 3, 2015 1:42 PM
    caminocasa07 caminocasa07 Jun 4, 2015 11:28 AM Flag

    Although this plan is unlikely to be implemented---still a decent chance for
    "dead cat bounce" over next 4 months--potential 30% plus annualized rate
    of return from current $7.75---see rationale on other thread in response to
    Briskit44 analysis "4 Fundamental Reasons........"
    Today's webinar should be most interesting---

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