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Herbalife Ltd. Message Board

canaberry_england 17 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 8, 2016 6:58 AM Member since: Aug 8, 2006
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  • Equity players are flirting with disaster here if ebitda goes south after 4th qtr 2015. with drilling collapsing & volumes likely receding,2016 ebitda could decline.
    I see massive share dilution in the reorg. The current debt/ebitda ratio is scary & likely to DETERIORATE in the 1st half of 2016.Do the math on the ratio. Its frightening.

  • Reply to

    How Much Dilution In 2016?

    by canaberry_england Feb 6, 2016 3:55 PM
    canaberry_england canaberry_england Feb 8, 2016 6:44 AM Flag

    Woa Cube...hold your horses on this one dude. What if you put a more realistic multiple of 8 on EBITDA of $70M,used a more realistic debt figure of $600M...what value do you arrive for equity now?? How about a big fat glaring ZERO !!! If you want to put on rose colored glasses,be my guest but plz dont trot out these figures as being conservative or that there is some great margin of safety involved.

  • Reply to

    How Much Dilution In 2016?

    by canaberry_england Feb 6, 2016 3:55 PM
    canaberry_england canaberry_england Feb 7, 2016 4:27 PM Flag

    when u find an operation where volumes go up & share count goes down then you are really on to something.

    Where would this stock be if EBITDA goes to $70M & shares count doubles?
    Could happen easily.

  • Reply to

    How Much Dilution In 2016?

    by canaberry_england Feb 6, 2016 3:55 PM
    canaberry_england canaberry_england Feb 7, 2016 3:49 PM Flag

    How can an investor put a price target on a stock when the share count is totally up in the air? Its a forgone conclusion there will be dilution. The company's structure & outlook is such a mess there really is no telling the final share count. The sponsors are a joke & the joke has been on the unitholders & if past is prologue???

  • Reply to

    How Much Dilution In 2016?

    by canaberry_england Feb 6, 2016 3:55 PM
    canaberry_england canaberry_england Feb 7, 2016 3:37 PM Flag

    No chance of buying much senior debt at 45. A few banks might bite at 95.
    Why not just wait until the reorg plan is revealed,crunch the numbers & see if any additional investment is warranted. This could get much much uglier. If its going to 6 & you wait until $1.75 tobuy more for the clarity,who cares. No telling how much volumes are leaving or how much dilution is coming down the pike. No law that this stock cant go down anther 50% from here.

  • Reply to

    How Much Dilution In 2016?

    by canaberry_england Feb 6, 2016 3:55 PM
    canaberry_england canaberry_england Feb 7, 2016 6:19 AM Flag

    that could very well be a solution. the problem is that unitholders would have bought dropdown assets at $X but effectively selling at $X-5 to pay for schittty assets producers arent needing.

    it all goes back to mgt foresight & inherent conflicts of interest.

    is this mgt team really good stewarts of ur capital?

    these complicated capital structures & drop down strategies just screamed DANGER DANGER AHEAD for investors.

    Have to ask yourself "is mgt any smarter? are they any more honest & less conflicted?"

    yes capital mkts are used by honest people to build wonderful enterprises but in countless situations capital mkts are used by dishonest people looking for suckers to unload assets at inflated prices & left to twist in the wind. Is SXE mgt the former or the later??? There is a great body of evidence already available to make your determination.

  • The real problem is the inherent conflict of interest in these drop down business plans. How can these mgt teams on Planet MLP serve 2 masters?? The unit holders overpay for assets & end up with stretched balance sheets. They promise distributions to raise capital that evaporate when industry conditions hit a speed bump.SXE unit holders have taken a beating & its far from over. Wait until the reorg is announced to rightsize the balance sheet & share count explodes higher. Unitholders paid top dollar for assets that could b stranded. Who is to blame? Who knew what when? This is an ethics scandal that touches many companies & goes to the core of mgt business practices & code of ethics.

  • canaberry_england canaberry_england Feb 6, 2016 8:05 PM Flag

    Their debt to EBITDA doesnt look cheap to this observer. Looks like to me that they #$%$ away capital. I question capital allocation decisions by mgt.

  • canaberry_england by canaberry_england Feb 6, 2016 3:55 PM Flag

    Dont know how shareholders escape dilution with this name? How much is the big question?

  • canaberry_england canaberry_england Feb 6, 2016 7:37 AM Flag

    AZUR not AZUL. :))))))))

  • canaberry_england by canaberry_england Feb 6, 2016 7:32 AM Flag

    CEQP has better financial ratios that the others.

    CEQP has waaaaay better assets,no question.

    CEQP has waaaay better sponsor,no question.

    CEQP has better MLP & organizational structure,no question.

    CEQP has sustainable distribution,others pay ZERO.

    CEQP has better growth potential with Permian deal with FS & its FUNDED.

    CEQP has more flexibility with potential asset sales & access to capital,no question.

    AZUL & SXE have greater dilution risk,no question.

  • Reply to

    Screaming Eagle and Raging Capital

    by lucius.rodin Feb 2, 2016 5:41 AM
    canaberry_england canaberry_england Feb 2, 2016 6:54 AM Flag

    First Reserve has a lot of money & reputation riding on their CEQP sponsorship. They will shortly add another member to the BOD. Being able to invest along side FR with their knowledge,connections,finances & mgt skills at less than 3X FCF is an incredible & rare investment opportunity.

  • FR buys $100M more in stock the past 6 weeks,now controls 25% of company.
    Yesterday a BOD member RESIGNS at the behest of FR. Now there are 7 BOD members with FR controlling 1 BOD seat.
    Expect an announcement in the very near term where FR is given another BOD seat.
    New Board will be 8 members with FR controlling 2 seats.
    FR driving the bus now. In control of the finances,strategy & mgt.
    Will Phillips we thrown to the curb by FR?? Inquiring minds want to know?

  • canaberry_england by canaberry_england Jan 29, 2016 10:59 PM Flag

    FR owns 25% currently.
    Purchase 51M shares at $20 for total cost of $1.02B,financed at 10% or $100M/yr interest cost
    FS as 100% owner earns $380M/yr in free cash flow,easily covering financing costs

  • Reply to

    New presentation

    by tradedollarnut Jan 18, 2016 9:55 AM
    canaberry_england canaberry_england Jan 18, 2016 6:16 PM Flag

    Mgt was clear on the last qtr CC that going forward they would focus on strengthening the balance sheet. Yes they declared the last pfd divy end of DEC. Oil has fallen 25% since then. Mgt hasn't acted irresponsibly YET as far as I can tell.

  • canaberry_england canaberry_england Jan 18, 2016 7:10 AM Flag

    Oman is Obama's older brother who is married to Michelle's aunt. This could be big.

  • canaberry_england by canaberry_england Dec 31, 2015 5:27 PM Flag

    The Joint Development Agreement was an ingenious arrangement that will allow this lean running ,shareholder oriented mgt team with excellent acreage to grow production over the long term with their JDA partner picking up a huge tab for cap ex. This will allow the MLP to GROW DCF once commodity prices normalize over the next few yrs. Fully expect distributions to revisit the $1-$2 level by 2020. If that occurs, got your 10 bagger. My strategy to BUY & HOLD shares purchased with a $1.15 cost basis for the next 5 yrs. & collect generational distributions along the way. Big money will be made buying & holding for the next several yrs.

HLF
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