Most refer to me here as cancer.....
Someone in one of the articles said .....natural gas in transportation is growing slower than expected but faster than many think
Stations are opening for some reason......
Historical note.....the name dates from a Sunday front page story about entremed which was curing every cancer tested in mice.......
Stock soared over a 100.... For a minute or so.....those were the days.....or seconds......
And I believe entremed is still getting thank-you letters from mice for all their fine work on their behalf
Decoding the diesel trends
by Sean Kilcarr Oct 30, 2014
A new 32-page report hit the streets this week: An Assessment of the Diesel Fuel Market: Demand, Supply, Trade and Key Drivers, and you can go here to download it.
This report – developed by the PIRA Energy Group for the Fuels Institute, with funding support from the NATSO Foundation, the research subsidiary of the truck stop trade group NATSO, Inc. – aimed to divine whether adequate supplies of diesel fuel would be available in the U.S. over the course of the next 15 years or so.
In sum, some good things are in the offing, at least according to this analysis. For starters, U.S. consumption of diesel is expected to start dropping in 2016 – even as worldwide consumption increases – as more heavy trucks are expected to switch over to natural gas, among other developments.
Now, a lot of truckers might be saying, “Switch to natural gas? Are you crazy? Look how low the price of diesel is getting.” Indeed, some experts figure that the steady decline of diesel prices will #$%$ such conversions down the road with some truck OEMs are even putting their natural gas development plans on hold as a result.
Yet John Eichberger (at left), executive director of the Fuels Institute, cautioned trucking fleets in particular that making long-term strategic decisions based on short-term pricing data isn’t a good idea.
“The extraction process that’s come online in recent years – fracking – is not going away and is making prices for natural gas and oil far more stable, especially domestically,” he explained to me by phone.
“Back in 2007, we were worried about the energy security implications of importing more oil. Since then everything’s completely changed as technology [fracking] has stepped up,” Eichberger said. “We’ve got a lot more domestic supply and [energy] pricing is far more stable. For the consumer and for the overall U.S. economy, that stability is key.”
PIRA’s research indicates that an increase in overall vehicl
Outlook for U.S. Diesel Demand
Based on the models already described and the assumptions explained in the following pages, PIRA expects overall U.S. diesel demand to increase through 2015, but then to begin to decline gradually post-2016, and more rapidly post-2025. Improvements in efficiency, substitution away from diesel in the non- transportation sector, and growing use of natural gas in the heavy duty vehicle (HDV), railroad, and marine segments are expected to reduce diesel demand in the later years. These declines will outpace the expected increase in light duty vehicle (LDV) diesel demand, leaving the U.S. with ample diesel availability both to satisfy its own demand and to play a role as a growing diesel exporter to other countries
It’s cleaner, cheaper and a good choice for company fleets.
So said officials gathered Oct. 30 at Aqua’s new compressed natural gas fueling station in Willow Grove.
State Sen. Stewart Greenleaf, R-12, Rep. Tom Murt, R-152, and Ryan Emerson, of the state Department of Community and Economic Development, joined with Aqua Chairman and CEO Nicholas DeBenedictis and other officials to cut the ribbon on the second and newest time-fill CNG fueling station for the water company’s fleet in Southeastern Pennsylvania. Thirty percent of Aqua’s fleet in the Southeast region, where Aqua serves 1.2 million customers, have been converted to CNG and the goal is to transition 90 vans and dump trucks within the next five years, the company said.
“There’s a change in the way people are thinking,” DeBenedictis said, noting the company has 100 employees serving customers in Bucks and Montgomery counties, where it is investing $50 million in new infrastructure this year. “They drive a lot of miles and drive a lot of trucks.
“The drivers were hesitant at first, worried about safety, but these are safer,” he said. If a CNG vehicle is in an accident the gas dissipates into the air. The vehicles have the same pick-up, and the cost is $1.70/gasoline gallon equivalent as opposed to the $3.25 to $3.50 cost of diesel.
Having its own CNG filling stations are a matter of convenience, DeBenedictis said, though, he added, Wawa is “starting to look at it.”
The state has invested more than $29 million in the last year and a half for CNG stations, C&ED representative Emerson said. They utilize natural gas produced in the state, have cleaner emissions and the cost savings allow companies to reinvest in their business.
because that was by far the worst quarterly report i have ever had the pleasure of reading...
i mean.........its breathtaking !!!
you have to laugh......
that is interesting.........new technology.......does not go to the jvs
so.......the jvs are stuck .....stagnant technology?....then they are done..
what i noticed was that every analyst was sitting in for some other analyst....we got the bench warmers
i will be adding as i can
if it stays here for a while...which it should
i will have a massive position for the run
thats my plan.............
wildbeenyheeth • 15 minutes ago Flag
0users liked this postsusers disliked this posts0Reply
The story was fiction...the story is done...the magic is gone...
This is a Vancouver PUMP and Dump!
It's posts like that which makes this board ....painful
It's not fiction....it's not a pump and dump
It's an excellent product....best in class...market growing way slower than expected
Why do you have to post pure garbage ?
I was not disturbed by the Jp Morgan analyst...I thought the question was reasonable ...and I thought demes answer was worth hearing
This year, we also saw a broad consensus for the first time that natural gas will take material market share in every global transportation market within the next 5 years. Obviously, I don't have time to go through these studies today, but consensus suggests that we'll see, for example, 7% to 15% share of the North American trucking industry running on natural gas in 2017. Some markets will see penetration rates even beyond the high end of this range. Whether the numbers emerge at the low end or the high end, I think, is a little irrelevant. It's an enormous change from our current position and it's a spectacular business opportunity for our industry and for Westport.
So as I said on our last call, we now see broad consensus that natural gas is going to take a pretty meaningful market share in the transportation markets we participate in. Pretty widely quoted number that a lot of people are using is that forecasters are looking for between 7% and 15% of the heavy duty truck market in North America to be natural gas by 2017. Now, we don’t really care which end of this projection is on and in fact, as you’ve heard us say we don’t think 15% is going to be that hard, but the challenge is going to be getting from zero to that level. We're seeing similar numbers in China and we're rapidly seeing great interest in new markets like mining and rail. Our more mature market segments like transit and refuse we continue to increase market share and well past that 50% market.
At the same time, the change in infrastructure availability year-over-year has been spectacular and more is on the way. Just the public announcement of stations for trucks now stands at around 560, that we’ll have LNG by the end of 2015, now that we presume a minimum of 40 trucks operating at each station, this would apply over 22,000 LNG trucks on the road in United States by end of 2015.
Most analysts are calling for 5% to 20% market penetration in North America within five years, assuming that infrastructure investment keeps up, but basic risk (inaudible) but even the low end of those number would yield great value for our shareholders. So we are pleased to say that the start is behind us and we are confident in the growth trajectory over the next few years. We intend to continue to lead this industry with new technology and new products in partnership with the leading truck OEMs.
We are out looking about 1.5% this year. And of course, Cummins Westport and Westport are about 100% share of the engines in those trucks. Westport and others share the off end of the components, but next year, most people and we concur expect that the truck market is going to go to 4% to 5% natural gas. On a base of 200,000 new trucks in Canada and the U.S., that’s a significant shift in energy use. And over the next five years, industry analysts are calling for 10% to 20% market penetration in North America. And assuming that infrastructure investment keeps up, basic arithmetic tells us that even the low end of those numbers is going to yield great value for our shareholders. We believe the same patterns now playing out in Asia and Europe and we are positioning Westport to take advantage of this opportunity. And then of course, we want to replicate that in other markets like rail and mining.
We’ve been talking about this for years, but we look at 2014 as the critical breakthrough year in heavy duty trucks in North America. We expect to see 3% to 5% market penetration in class A trucks for natural gas this year, which is up from virtually zero in 2011.
At that rate, we’d have a total population on the road of about 12,000 trucks over the last couple of years, which consume on average about 18,000 gallons of fuel per year each. So this is becoming a material amount of energy that’s being allocated to the class A truck market.
Now, if we’re successful in getting that 3% to 5% market penetration, we think that the growth trajectory is pretty clear. That will be up from 1.7% in 2012, and we don’t think there’s anything to stop it from going much higher.
schrammbo52 • 12 minutes ago Flag
do you still believe in the story long term?
Yes.....but I have a problem with the chief getting growth estimates wrong by close to an order of magnitude .....last year