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Astex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

canphan7 58 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 18, 2014 2:42 AM Member since: Nov 17, 2005
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  • Reply to

    MACK close to a deal on MM-398

    by mymandon Jul 17, 2014 4:04 PM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jul 18, 2014 2:42 AM Flag

    Your note probably reflects the majority opinion in the market. A big reason we are here, at this price, is because most market participants can not evaluate the value of clinical data (and MACK PR could have done better). The prejudice has gotten so extreme against MACK that anyone selling now must believe MM 398 to have less than $200 M in annual sales, MM 121 to be worth nothing, and the rest of the pipeline to have negligible value.

    Consider that intense pessimism and then consider this fact. There has been no trial failure, not one, for the existing pipeline in the last two years. All trials have been great successes. If there was something wrong with MM 121, somebody, somewhere would point out what that is. There would be some bear who could articulate the cliniical failings of MM 121 that led Sanofi to bail. But no, there isn't, because there isn't anything wrong with it. If you strip away everyone's warped opinions, all prejudices and significant misconceptions, you will see what MACK is worth as a biotech asset. This is a company (if financed properly) that will be generating billions in sales in a few years.

    So how do they get that financing? Well, I respect your viewpoint, and understand why you have it, but I disagree that management is ineffective. I think their proving ground is now, because before this time none of their assets were mature enough to warrant attractive deals. So now, if they are at least moderately competent, they will get at least one good deal in the next 6 months on MM 398 ex US, and that, along with another deal for their pipeline, will be enough to finance them for the next two years, bridging them to MM 398 revenue, MM 111 results (which are the first with a pre-specified population primary endpoint) , and then another MM 121 deal. If this does not happen Innisbrook, I will respectfully come back here to this board and offer my mea culpa to you along with my vote for management replacement.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    MACK close to a deal on MM-398

    by mymandon Jul 17, 2014 4:04 PM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jul 17, 2014 9:17 PM Flag

    In my humble opinion, the only thing management has clearly failed at was the financing last year. That was a travesty, executed poorly, at a price way below market. This financing was noted as a undesirable outcome in Mulroy's bonus determination. Given this, and their public comments, I really doubt they will do any financing again in the near term. If they did, I for one would lobby for Mulroy's termination.

    Beyond that financing, clinical results have been remarkable, and you can't fault management for a not getting more partner deals. It is likely they got a number of lowball offers they didnt' take. I think their negotiation position is much better now with potentially multiple suitors for MM 398 and a definitive timeline for becoming a commercial entity. I am cautiously optimisitc they will get a deal with MM 398 and one other pipeline candidate in the next 6 months. These deals, if done properly with the right partners, take time, so I can wait, but either one could be announced any time. If no directors buy shares soon at these preposterous prices, I would suspect they are close to execution.

    Unfortunately, the market is impatient. The market is clearly in a "show me the money" mode with MACK despite their tremendous cllinical and scientific potential. But once these deals are announced, and MM 398 is on the road to approval, the stock will rapidly rally back to saner levels.Thereafter the ensuing rally into MM 398 approval will be much more powerful given that shorts can't hide from the economics of these deals or imminent MM 398 revenues. If you are on the sidelines, this fear-based pullback is a gift. I can't see this stock being less than $10 by the end of the year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • canphan7 by canphan7 Jul 1, 2014 9:38 AM Flag

    Can someone please explain what the new market cap of the post-merger company will be? I am very confused as to how many fully diluted shares there will be. The press release is horrible - doesn't even tell you this so you can't even value to company appropriately.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Morons selling

    by canphan7 Jun 26, 2014 9:36 AM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jun 26, 2014 4:23 PM Flag

    Agreed. This is indeed positive, especially for the prospective economics of any MM 398 ex-US deal. The partner will be paying for not only MM 398 in second line but the potential for future expansion into other indications, so it bodes well for a good upfront payment.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Morons selling

    by canphan7 Jun 26, 2014 9:36 AM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jun 26, 2014 4:17 PM Flag

    I was hoping for better long term survival as well. On the other hand, PFS, ORR and side effects exceeded my expectations. So to me the data was just "okay". The main thing for the investment community is that the data was clean, with no surprising side effects or strange sub group effects. I am hoping alot of big buyers were waiting for the full data presentation before starting to commit funds over time.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Morons selling

    by canphan7 Jun 26, 2014 9:36 AM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jun 26, 2014 10:00 AM Flag

    Probably mostly day traders that are "selling the news". Soon they will be gone, and the price will rise.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • canphan7 by canphan7 Jun 26, 2014 9:36 AM Flag

    Dataset was clean. Approval basically in the bag. Partnership talks far along. Stock priced at 1x average peak sales estimate for MM 398. Institutional money now ready to commit. Clock is ticking shorts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • canphan7 by canphan7 Jun 25, 2014 9:42 AM Flag

    It was available yesterday to conference attendees and those who purchase it online. Unfortunately nothing on 12 month OS but they do have PFS and some more detail on AE's. Looking good.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • from Motley Fool has been false and misleading. An endless parade of slander from countless authors manipulate the price down . . . this evening's article of course says nothing about the data presentation tomorrow, nothing about insider buying as possible reasons for the stock being up. No, that would actually suppose there is a modicum of bullishness, and it would require more than 60 seconds of research. No, according to them instead the price bump today is just that its a mild rebound from bad news. It's really amazing. You can't be this systematically incompetent and stupid. Motley Fool clearly has an agenda.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Finally, a decent article on MACK

    by boogins_00 Jun 20, 2014 12:23 PM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jun 21, 2014 3:22 PM Flag

    After contemplating this quite a bit in the last 24 hours, it is very puzzling, but the puzzle piece that is quite revealing is the following: " .. . Our next step is to discuss our Phase 2 data and potential registration paths with the FDA."

    What? That means that Sanofi and MACK havn't even gone to the FDA yet. They have had much of this data (at least the lung, breast and ovarian biomarker positive data) since at least January (in order to get into ASCO), but not yet gone to FDA to discuss. Wouldn't part of your due diligence on this decision be to speak with the FDA about registrational paths, especially if you were concerned about the translatability of the biomarker positive results? Any company that was at all interested in moving this forward, or even just EVALUATING whether to move it forward, would surely take this step.

    This suggests that Sanofi wasn't really even paying attention. My guess is Sanofi is dysfunctional, and maybe wrote off the MM 121 program long ago, and just were running out their obligation until final top line data. They very well may be getting out of oncology, or at least de-prioritizing it significantly.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • canphan7 canphan7 Jun 19, 2014 5:11 PM Flag

    Wow. This is a real head scratcher. I can't for the life of me figure out why they would walk away from such a huge opportunity, but at the same time Sanofi hasn't made many good oncology decisions lately. Could be a near term swoon, but you're right, the net present value of MM 121 just tripled.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Significance of oral presentation

    by almsfolly Jun 17, 2014 9:37 AM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jun 17, 2014 9:46 AM Flag

    Correct. It is the first of three pancreatic cancer abstracts selected for oral presentation. This is probably the biggest news at this meeting. It is a Phase III study in 417 patients and over 100 sites worldwide. Whatever data that is presented will be very high quality compared to what is usually presented (i.e. usually small uncontrolled studies).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • canphan7 canphan7 Jun 11, 2014 9:57 AM Flag

    As good as approved, anyways. Approval de-risked and stock goes down? TIME TO BUY!!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Funny that he posted that bearish article on May 30 - talk about egg on the face today. Interestingly he posted a similar article for Merrimack Pharmaceuticals (MACK) a few days later, and the exact same scenario could play out with Sanofi. Check it MACK - you won't regret it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • canphan7 by canphan7 Jun 9, 2014 8:49 AM Flag

    George Budwell of Motley Fool wrote a bearish article entitled "3 reasons Wall Street hates Idenix pharmaceuticals" on May 30th, a couple days before he wrote a similar article for MACK.Talk about egg on the face today. What's interesting is that you could see the exact same thing for play out MACK with the huge potential for MM 121 and MM 398 . . . and with a similar 240% bump in MC you might actually start to value MACK fairly.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Motley Fool article so predicatble and wrong.

    by cool4shul Jun 5, 2014 2:34 PM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jun 6, 2014 12:24 PM Flag

    Fair enough. At ASCO Merrimack just surprised everyone by reporting Phase II lung cancer indication results in which 50% of lung cancer patients have a 60% less chance of death. Therefore if the analysts fail to mention this very material development and adjust their price targets accordingly they are either cowards, or, as you imply, totally incompetent.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Motley Fool article so predicatble and wrong.

    by cool4shul Jun 5, 2014 2:34 PM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jun 6, 2014 9:13 AM Flag

    You only have to go the Jefferies presentation to hear that they don't plan on raising money in the near term. Did this guy do absolutely no research? How many biased, poorly researched articles have to come out for shorts to be satisfied? At least the article comments were well written and spot on.

    I doubt many weak hands remain at this point, and what you have left is mostly intelligent investors, smart funds and scared shorts. Anyone not invested or who has been scared out probably has such low expectations its ridiculous. But for us holders, it gives us a nice big wall of worry to climb as MACK blows through these ridiculously low expectations one by one with the numerous upcoming catalysts. There is a big part of wall street that isn't watching closely that still thinks MM 121 failed, for example. I would love to see the looks on their faces when Sanofi announces a broad Phase III program.

    And where are the analysts? Hopefully they are still processing ASCO. If they don't put anything positive out they are all a bunch of cowards IMO.

    I have never been more confident in MACK as a long term investment. Good luck to all.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Jeffries presentation key takeaways

    by almsfolly Jun 3, 2014 4:36 PM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jun 3, 2014 5:23 PM Flag

    Best new slide in my opinion was slide 20. Holy cow....

    This company is going to change the face of cancer care.

    MM 121 alone will be a mega . . . mega . . . blockbuster.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Contemplating ASCO

    by boogins_00 Jun 3, 2014 8:35 AM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jun 3, 2014 2:28 PM Flag

    Yes, I do think its possible, but unlikely because they havn't used a proprietary diagnostic to pre-select the population yet. We have a good shot at them stopping the Phase III trials early for overt efficacy however, and then getting fast-track designation. I just don't think you should expect a near term upside from breakthrough designation. Lots of other near term catalysts though, so nothing to worry about.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Contemplating ASCO

    by boogins_00 Jun 3, 2014 8:35 AM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jun 3, 2014 1:56 PM Flag

    I am not sure I agree with you on Breakthrough Designation. It is possible, but unlikely because there is not enough data in any one indication. But even without Breakthrough Designation, as you, Boogins and others have mentioned the results as a whole and across many indications, are striking, undeniable, and validate the company and pipeline. Stellar Phase III results have a very high probability of blow out results, but they will take time.

    Re; a potential Sanofi take-out, I am with you. We have good reason to be worried about this. Sanofi was not permitted to make a bid . . . until April 2014. Now they can. While hopefully MACK won't give the company away so cheaply, it is possible. It could go hostile. I think MACK should adopt a poison pill provision, stat.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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