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Astex Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

canphan7 38 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 11, 2016 9:13 AM Member since: Nov 17, 2005
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  • canphan7 canphan7 Feb 11, 2016 9:13 AM Flag

    Should be an interesting day today. Bad tape so far this morning and extremely bearish sentiment, but this news eliminates a potentially significant competitor. There remains only one approved treatment option for 2nd line pancreatic cancer.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CANPHAN7

    by pentiumpwr Feb 8, 2016 12:36 PM
    canphan7 canphan7 Feb 8, 2016 9:23 PM Flag

    I agree the company could do more to update the investing public. Do a google search on Onivyde and Aetna, Blue Cross, Medicare.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CANPHAN7

    by pentiumpwr Feb 8, 2016 12:36 PM
    canphan7 canphan7 Feb 8, 2016 4:55 PM Flag

    Hostile takeovers are difficult because you are bound to lose some value of the asset in the process. I haven't kept up to date on MACK's governance filings but I thought they had a poison pill, which could be putting people off. But I think maybe the most cogent point here is that this has all happened too fast for big pharma to react. Everything is getting crushed, and big pharma takes months to put together a proper takeover attempt. While I think the possibility is definitely there, in my opinion I doubt we would see big pharma getting aggressive until there is some stability in prices for a while.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Canphan..Scistats

    by innsbrooklad Feb 3, 2016 9:00 AM
    canphan7 canphan7 Feb 4, 2016 6:11 PM Flag

    MM-121 is a registrational trial - early results would hurt the alpha, so not likely in 2017 unless stopped for overt efficacy or futility.

    My bet is they partner MM-302 ex-US after the data is announced in a deal similar to the Onivyde deal with Baxalta. That would give them some cash.

    But to your question, Onivyde alone should mean no need for additional financing. Its not outside the realm of possibility that they are cash flow positive in 2016. Do the math.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Canphan..Scistats

    by innsbrooklad Feb 3, 2016 9:00 AM
    canphan7 canphan7 Feb 4, 2016 8:02 AM Flag

    i doubt there will be much off-label use.

    i am not sure we would hit 20 this year with biotech sentiment where it is, but with a $40 quarterly run rate I could see us up in the $12-$15 range. It is true there is a scarcity value for biotechs with strong revenue growth.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Canphan..Scistats

    by innsbrooklad Feb 3, 2016 9:00 AM
    canphan7 canphan7 Feb 3, 2016 4:52 PM Flag

    These could be wildly off but I would guess $3.5 M for Q4 2015 and $20 M for Q1 2016. Assumes about 8% of new 2nd line patients initiating in Q4 and 17% in Q1 2016. I would hope Q2 and Q3 this year would be very nice as Onivyde becomes more of a standard of care and insurers are lined up. If so would be well over $30 M / $40 M for those quarters. Even at $40 M / quarter you are still at less than 25% penetration. Since there no other approved options they could do much better.

    I don't see MACK halting any trials, although it would be nice if MM-302 gets stopped early for overt efficacy.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CANPHAN7...

    by pentiumpwr Jan 26, 2016 12:08 PM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jan 27, 2016 9:16 AM Flag

    Nothing is certain innsbrook, which is why I use the word if. Be wary of those that don't use the word if.

    You fail to qualify or support your statement "trials that are suspect at best". FDA seems to think the MM-302 trial could qualify for accelerated approval. MM-121 data shows statistically significant benefit in the HRG+ group across three cancer indications. All the analysts support price targets that are 100% + greater than current PPS. What is suspect?

    I think MACK management has made some missteps, but we are in the 2nd or 3rd inning here, and the prospects are good for winning. Not a good time to pull the pitcher.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CANPHAN7...

    by pentiumpwr Jan 26, 2016 12:08 PM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jan 27, 2016 8:21 AM Flag

    It is unorthodox in that they are taking a very long term view and are conservative in giving up value. In general, this is a good strategy for a company in the long term, but they could do better with some balance on focusing on near term needs (Mm-121 deal is a perfect example). Their strategy is risky if you need capital because they are at the mercy of the financial markets. Luckily we should be "coming out of the woods" soon. If Onivyde sales come in strong they will no longer need to give up value to new investors, and will be able to negotiate deals from a position of strength.

    Picture 2018. It is reasonable to assume Onivyde sales could be in the $200 M - $300 M range. MM-302 could be on the market as well, generating similar sales or more. Mm-121 results, if good, give them the prospect of generating billions. I think this is all quite possible given the data we have seen. If this happens, the PPS will be many times what it is now. This is the future they see, and why they are taking the approach they are taking.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • canphan7 canphan7 Jan 26, 2016 8:41 AM Flag

    Look at facts rather than perception. 0.3 hazard ratios across three solid tumors with statistical significance. Good tolerability. Studies include over 1000 patients. Plus very thorough additional pre-clinical research.

    With all due respect, what "the market" is saying is never a good argument. If you believe "the market", you should never invest because everything is perfectly priced.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • canphan7 canphan7 Jan 25, 2016 10:58 PM Flag

    For lung cancer, MM-121 addresses a patient population more than 6x that of 2nd line Panc Cancer, and will likely have a longer treatment duration. Safe to say MM-121 will have 10 x the market potential of Onivyde in one indication, so reasonable to assume valuation is 10x for PPS. Back of the envelope but hard to refute if you believe in MM-121. Doesn't factor in the rest of the pipeline such as MM-302 and the current undervaluation based on Onivyde alone. It's too far away for the market to care right now, but we will get there eventually.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • canphan7 canphan7 Jan 20, 2016 8:51 AM Flag

    This is the one piece of the data puzzle that was missing for Onivyde. Glad 1 year survival looks very good. With Biotech going through convulsions, who knows what today will bring for the PPS, but this will further drive Onivyde sales this year, so its only a matter of time until MACK starts climbing back up.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CANPHAN7

    by pentiumpwr Jan 16, 2016 12:01 PM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jan 18, 2016 12:54 PM Flag

    I wouldn't say "as optimistic as ever" since we don't know how biotech sentiment will move in the near term, but the fundamentals have not changed. Some of the downward trend is due to lack of partnership on MM-121. Hard to know exactly what happened there, so it makes me cautious, but the data is hard to argue. Most of the price drop is biotech sentiment. If you believe any of : 1) Onivyde should get $200 M in sales, or 2) MM-302 will show great results, or 3) MM-121 will be a huge blockbuster, this is a good stock to own. I believe all 3 are likely, and thus MACK should have $1 billion in revenue by 2020. No matter what biotech sentiment is, if I am right, MACK should at least be 5x where the PPS it is now by 2020 unless there is some broad based stock market calamity.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CANPHAN7

    by pentiumpwr Jan 16, 2016 12:01 PM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jan 18, 2016 8:24 AM Flag

    I think a hostile takeover is unlikely, but a possibility. Getting MACK below $20 a share is a steal, so why wouldn't someone try to take it out at $12 or $14 a share? MACK management will likely resist all overtures but if the overture is made public they might have to bow to shareholder pressure.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Drcashmoney???

    by eastcoastcash Jan 11, 2016 5:51 PM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jan 12, 2016 9:10 AM Flag

    Not much to add. My sentiments echo many on this string, including yours. I am not happy with management. It is possible they have taken the wiser path on MM-121, but we won't know for 2 more years. I think they should have done a deal just to get it into Breast Cancer so they would have a huge lead in that indication. It would have helped the company in many ways, even if they gave up a good portion of the value on MM-121.

    It's very disappointing, but I don't make anything of any of the sell off in the last 6 trading days. It is driven mostly by fear, poor biotech sentiment and forced selling of funds. I suspect the end of yesterday was someone being forced to dump. All of these have nothing to do with fundamentals.

    Think about where we will in 2017. MM-302 results will be announced (potentially doubling rev potential), Onivdye sales will likely exceed $200 M, and we will have many other data readouts in 2017. Therefore buying / holding here should be a pretty safe bet for the long term

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CANPHAN7...

    by pentiumpwr Jan 7, 2016 10:32 AM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jan 7, 2016 11:22 AM Flag

    They are prohibited from buying until after Q4 announcement. These prices are a joke. I am sure they wish they could.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CANPHAN7....

    by pentiumpwr Jan 4, 2016 11:16 AM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jan 5, 2016 5:33 PM Flag

    You have 2nd line pancreatic cancer. What are you going to use?

    1. A clinical trial treatment
    2. Onivyde, the only approved treatment for 2nd line, supported by a large international Phase 3 showing a 0.67 hazard ratio, with good tolerability.
    3. Other regimens off label, all of which have poor or conflicting OS data, and most of which are highly toxic.

    Other clinical trials are the main competition for Onivyde, and that's maybe 1000 patients. Non-Onivyde regimens will be used much less because they are not approved (liability issue for oncologists, and also uncertainty as to clinical benefit risk). So the rest, all 18,000 should skew very heavily towards Onivyde. 10,000 patients is $400 M in sales, and that doesn't include EX US royalties and milestones.

    The market is wrong on MACK. Sales will be strong. Don't give up the golden goose before it lays its egg.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CANPHAN7....

    by pentiumpwr Jan 4, 2016 11:16 AM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jan 4, 2016 3:02 PM Flag

    My take on the changed endpoint is two fold:

    1. It allows it to be a registrational phase 3. FDA is shying away from using PFS for registrational trials as an endpoint except in unusual situations. Therefore MACK could launch a multi-billion dollar drug in 2018 or 2019.

    2. It allows the trial results to be indisputable by other parties. I imagine even if they got good PFS data at the end of 2016 prospective partners could say that its still not proven without OS. This makes the data so strong that it can't be ignored or politicized away because of the former bad press about MM-121.

    They are blinded to the clinical data, but the fact that they are getting more than 50% of patients as HRG+ is a huge validation of the market opportunity. There could have been some lingering concerns about that after MM-111 did not play out as expected in terms of expected prevalence. This may have been enough, along with the 0.3 PFS hazard ratio and manageable tolerability in phase 2, for MACK to say the risk is low enough and opportunity significant enough that they did not wish to give away any of the value.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CANPHAN7....

    by pentiumpwr Jan 4, 2016 11:16 AM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jan 4, 2016 12:54 PM Flag

    I don't see any effect of Shire buying BXLT. MACK won't get included in the buyout offer but I wouldn't be surprised if Shire approached MACK independently. Shire doesn't have any conflicting programs. Even if for some reason Shire wanted to terminate the MACK arrangement there may be financial penalties and the MACK would get to repartner - probably more upside for MACK.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CANPHAN7....

    by pentiumpwr Jan 4, 2016 11:16 AM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jan 4, 2016 12:17 PM Flag

    I am disappointed in MACK management for not executing on a deal, and I can only hope it is for reasons in the long term interests of shareholders (i.e. maintaining value for themselves), rather than incompetence. They did execute well on the Baxalta deal so they have shown skill in this area. But comments from Mulroy were unprofessional, especially as it relates to the amount of confidence in a deal, and the time it should take to do a deal. 20 months? Some assets are re-partnered in 3.

    As far as financing arrangements go, the financing arrangement is good. Although the costs are high, they can pay it off anytime, and there is no dilution. Few biotech's can get a non-dilutive debt deal like this. This speaks to the potential of Onivyde (otherwise they wouldn't have gotten the deal). One thing to consider here as well is if Onivyde sales were not looking good, they would have taken a low ball partnership offer on MM-121.

    In summary, even though I am more cautious about management, I am maintaining a large position in MACK strictly as a value play. It still could be 10 x in five years. This next year will depend mostly on Onivyde sales, which I think will exceed the meager expectations priced into the stock. There could also be some nice upside surprises, such as from the MM-121 / MM-151 trial data, or partnership of other assets.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    MACK Big Catalysts 2016-2017

    by canphan7 Dec 13, 2015 9:37 PM
    canphan7 canphan7 Dec 14, 2015 9:34 AM Flag

    A few things have changed, but I am still mostly in the camp that not doing a MM-121 deal soon would be a major MACK management failure.

    One think that has changed is I don't think they need any cash unless they want to start the MM-121 study or MM-151 soon. Onivyde sales should be able to see them through until late 2016. It's still a bit risky and tenuous so I would prefer external capital in the form of business development, but they are not desperate for cash as some people might think.

    Second is that MM-121 results are due 2H 2016. By clinical trials.gov I thought it would be later in 2017, which would have been too long to wait. If it is true that other parties are not willing to pony up the dollars until those study results are in, then I suppose waiting would be the only choice.

    Again, I do think that if MACK does not do an MM-121 deal by then end of 2015 it will be a significant failure on the part of MACK's management. They own the asset - they should auction it off and define the timeline. I don't know if Mulroy should be fired for not completing according to his timeline, but his bonus should be virtually zero, and if he should be put on notice. We don't know all the internal workings of this, so there may be things we don't understand (i.e. maybe MACK would get $500 M up front vs $100M up front if they wait for lung results, who knows).

    But as I said before it is not the end of 2015 yet, so I am not willing to say that MACK management has failed on this account . . . yet.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy