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Astex Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

canphan7 50 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 22, 2015 12:47 PM Member since: Nov 17, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Secondary ATM was done for 2 reasons only.

    by cool4shul Jul 22, 2015 11:40 AM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jul 22, 2015 12:47 PM Flag

    I think there is a possibility that the a partner might want to know how enrollment is going, to see if the validated assay is working in selecting about 50% of patients, but even that is somewhat of an egregious demand by a prospective partner, since prevalence numbers are supported by the cancer genome atlas, phase II studies, and pre-clinical studies, and MACK can show how the assay is validated in other ways. If I was MACK I would have told the partner tough luck, we will go with someone more reasonable, but they could be playing nice. In any case, they probably have enough of this data by now to answer that question.

    But if you are talking about outcomes data from the Phase 2 I agree with someday321 that it doesn't make sense. First of all because it would be such a small number of patients that it would be weaker data than the hundreds of patients already studied. I.e. it might not prove anything. Secondly because I highly doubt they would have any data until at least mid-2016. I am not sure where the Q3-Q4 2015 number comes from.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CANPHAN7

    by pentiumpwr Jul 21, 2015 11:33 AM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jul 22, 2015 11:14 AM Flag

    One other thing to consider here is that there may have been a fair amount of due diligence required for companies to be willing to shell out fair deal terms (which should be substantial given the size of the opportunity). This is a complex program in a new class of drugs, and for example I suspect some companies may have wanted to see preclinical data on the prospective synergy with PD-1 and PDL-1 candidates, or enrollment progress on the lung cancer trial.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CANPHAN7

    by pentiumpwr Jul 21, 2015 11:33 AM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jul 22, 2015 11:09 AM Flag

    The deal is taking longer than I expected, and I am disappointed it has not been done yet, but the timeline is not that unusual for a competitive process with multiple parties. I have seen deals like this take 18 months from first talks. Sometimes parties increase their bids towards the end to get back in the running for fear of losing out. This means they may have to negotiate a new set of agreements late in the game, delaying the process. It also means a better deal is on the table. But at some point you have to say enough is enough. Hopefully MACK is in control and now giving a firm closing date for the transaction. I think this ATM should be incentive enough for them to wrap it up.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CANPHAN7

    by pentiumpwr Jul 21, 2015 11:33 AM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jul 21, 2015 1:07 PM Flag

    Thanks for in info dr.cash. The shorts have done well in the last week, but pigs get slaughtered. In my opinion in a week or two an MM-121 deal is in play again, and holding MACK stock short then is like having a death wish. 300k patients. 70% reduction in the risk of death. multi-billion dollar opportunity. Partnership discussions have been ongoing for a long time.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CANPHAN7

    by pentiumpwr Jul 21, 2015 11:33 AM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jul 21, 2015 12:48 PM Flag

    What could be wrong? If there is material information management has to tell us. Worst case scenario is that they don't do a deal on MM-121, but the market has assigned zero value to MM-121. More likely, given the size of the ATM, and the consistent management signaling of a deal, that the deal is delayed. Even if MM-121 didn't exist, the valuation is preposterous for a company with a drug about to be approved for the deadliest form of cancer and the potential for $300 M to $900 M in peak sales in the first indication alone.

    No, this is just a combination of the ATM done at possibly the worst time, a short attack, and fear creeping in. MACK has always been a misunderstood stock, and now is no different. Just like I said we will be above 10 before year end last summer, we will be above 20 before year end this year. Mark my words. I am buying more at these levels and have more than 420k shares at this point.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • canphan7 by canphan7 Jul 20, 2015 2:49 PM Flag

    MACK is the worst performing stock in the Nasdaq Biotechnology group today, and has been selling below the index for the last 5 days. And why? An ATM that is 3% diliutive? Talk about oversold.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Buying more here

    by canphan7 Jul 20, 2015 11:40 AM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jul 20, 2015 1:45 PM Flag

    The late stage compounds (MM-302 and MM-121) being given zero value is the BEST reason to buy. If you wait until they are partnered, you are missing out on all the upside.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • canphan7 by canphan7 Jul 20, 2015 11:40 AM Flag

    This is just an ATM-induced panic sale that the shorts are piling on. Nothing has changed. With three late stage compounds where one is pending approval, in today's market, the ridiculously low valuation is beyond absurd.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • canphan7 by canphan7 Jul 20, 2015 11:11 AM Flag

    I have been puzzling over why MACK included the slide about PD-L1 and ErbB3 tumor types in squamous lung cancer in the Cantor presentation. I had never seen this data before at any investor presentation or scientific meeting. One possibility is that prospective collaborators have asked MACK to do some pre-clinical work on the synergy between ErbB3 and immuno-oncology targets like PD-L1 as part of due diligence, to characterize how additive they might be and how much cross-over there could be in terms of patient population. This could also be one reason for the delay in doing the deal. Both Roche and AstraZeneca have late stage PD-L1's.

    Just food for thought.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Article on MACK in Bio-Runup today

    by cool4shul Jul 20, 2015 6:55 AM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jul 20, 2015 8:21 AM Flag

    Thanks cool4shul - agreed. Can anyone who is a subscriber convey the key points?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    It's unfortunate..

    by sixmilliondollarbios Jul 17, 2015 1:51 PM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jul 17, 2015 2:25 PM Flag

    It likely has to do with the working capital requirements for the Hercules loan - i.e. they would go too low in the next few months without more cash. They may have presumed the deal would be done sooner, and now, without deal cash, they can't wait until after October. Still - I agree with you that it was poorly planned.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    We have breached 10....

    by pentiumpwr Jul 17, 2015 11:15 AM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jul 17, 2015 12:53 PM Flag

    Yes, I am frustrated as well. While the ATM may have been necessary, I have to think it could have been avoided with better financial planning. It should have a minimal effect, but in addition to the effect of the additional supply of shares it makes people nervous.

    Unfortunately I don't have any more answers for you. I still think a deal is likely, just delayed. It's hard to see it any other way at this point.

    Too often I have left positions I have had convictions in too early, and then regretted it. I won't do that here, especially when the valuation gap is so great. So as far as my intentions with my position, unless I find out there is actually something wrong with their three lead candidates, no matter what happens no-one is getting any of my shares anywhere near these ridiculously low levels.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    We have breached 10....

    by pentiumpwr Jul 17, 2015 11:15 AM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jul 17, 2015 12:08 PM Flag

    Well said almsfolly! Holding MACK while other companies with lesser prospects gain definitely requires conviction. By doing this ATM, with no explanation, when there is low volume, management seems to care little about the short term movement of the share price, even though we know they are heavily incentivized. I hope its because a massive re-valuing event is going to happen in late summer / fall.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    looks like a small offering has been regestered

    by bigt198ou Jul 13, 2015 4:55 PM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jul 15, 2015 11:56 AM Flag

    One other thing to consider here is that this development increases the likelihood of a takeout being on the table. I have wondered with the MM-121 negotiation if the bidders simply upped the stakes and opt for a takeout bid for the entire company. They would get near term revenue with MM-398 and a huge-potential asset with MM-121, plus a high potential asset in MM-302. In any takeout, however, I think it would only happen once MM-398 was approved, which would be why they need the bridge financing until October to keep working capital in order.

    Of course, I doubt MACK's board would be excited about being bought at such low valuation, but realistically if someone came in with more than a 100% premium they would have to consider it or face shareholder lawsuits. Highly speculative, I know, but food for thought. In today's environment with a scarcity of late stage, high value biotech assets, if I were big pharma I would bet $4 billion on MACK easily.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    looks like a small offering has been regestered

    by bigt198ou Jul 13, 2015 4:55 PM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jul 14, 2015 2:54 PM Flag

    There are many possibilities, but I think as many people have alluded to it most likely relates to the working capital requirements for the loan. They need a bridge to keep working capital above a certain level until they can secure deal money or milestone payments from Baxter.

    This means a deal will likely not come in the next few days, unfortunately, but it also affirms a deal as a primary source of funding. Otherwise they would have raised more, in my opinion. There is the possibility that they expect imminent news which they can take advantage of with the ATM, but this is not likely in my opinion. Hopefully we find out more on the next conference call.

    Generally I am not happy about this development, but the dilution is immaterial and it just means more waiting for the deal. While July could be a dull month, the months following should be very interesting.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Don't do it

    by canphan7 Jun 18, 2015 11:24 AM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jul 8, 2015 8:50 AM Flag

    Silvercreek is interesting, but early stage. My guess is they will only promote it when they have good clinical data (all preclinical right now) As a standalone company it may be worth something, but probably less than $100 million in my opinion.

    The real dissonance with MACK is that MM-121 and MM-302 are not being valued by the market, when in other companies they would be worth billions and hundreds of millions respectively.

  • Reply to

    deals

    by bigt198ou Jun 29, 2015 9:49 PM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jun 30, 2015 8:59 AM Flag

    The JUNO deal does say something about the current scarcity value of oncology assets that have shown proof of concept, and the premium of first-in-class therapies, both of which should apply to MM-121.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CANPHAN7....

    by pentiumpwr Jun 25, 2015 2:05 PM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jun 29, 2015 2:18 PM Flag

    As far as I know they haven't disclosed specific milestone amounts with any granularity. They have said $250 million in "near term" milestones, which probably means cumulatively about $150 million in incremental cash flow over the next year for milestones up to and including US and EU approval. May also be the 1st line study initiation in there. Sorry I can't be more helpful.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CANPHAN7....

    by pentiumpwr Jun 25, 2015 2:05 PM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jun 25, 2015 2:57 PM Flag

    I would say about $18 per share given the potential for several hundred million in sales for MM-398 in the lead indication, plus great potential in 1st line pancreatic cancer as part of a revised FOLFIRINOX. Also sales should develop rapidly given the lack of alternative treatments.

    But as I have said before, it is doing investors a great disservice to exclude the rest of MACK's pipeline from any valuation. MM-121 is worth more than MM 398, as it addresses greater than 300k patients and has shown striking efficacy, and MACK is leading the class with strong protective IP. This is why MACK should be worth well north of 30 dollars per share.

    And yet, analysts have ignored MM-121. Go figure.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Don't do it

    by canphan7 Jun 18, 2015 11:24 AM
    canphan7 canphan7 Jun 25, 2015 7:27 AM Flag

    Management has certainly not been perfect. The financing in 2013 was horrific, and PR is sometimes questionable (the worst case being not separately announcing the accelerated approval designation of MM 302).

    On the other hand, they achieved an excellent deal with Baxter for MM-398, and on all clinical trials they have been executing very well. The studies they are doing are well designed. Plus their network biology platform is WORKING. MM-398, MM-121 and MM-302 data prove this. Sure, the market is only really considering MM-398, but is that management's fault? There is nothing I can see that suggests MACK has done a poor job outlining the potential benefits of MM-302 and MM-121. Therefore I would give management a high rating, because this is what really counts in the long term. The price will catch up with fundamentals as MACK makes deals and brings these valuable products to market.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy