I'm talking longer term than just 1 day. It will drift further down over time and then end up lower than when it started and the next time a deserving development happens, it will barely move because of the previous pop on no info... plus, the inevitable dillution via stock offering because the price was so high for a short period of time.
for alzheimers in 2012... AVNR is late to the party.
go search google for NIH National institute on aging... this garbage about there not being any approved treatment for agitation for Alzheimers is ridiculous... there's plenty of them.. none are FDA approved for this specific use, but MANY are in trials much further along than AVNR's solution. And it's just a tablet taken once a day.
I am a long who hates folks who are pumping this for a short term gain... that's the problem i have here. I'm here for the long term (look back at my posts where i had this in the 4's... over a year now). When a stock pops like this on hype and then tanks, it kills the stock for a very long time. I do not want to see this. And where do you see that the Marinol treatments don't work? I have done a basic google search showing all kinds of positive data showing that it does. In fact, that was the showing after a Phase II study. Go google search ScienceDaily Dronabinol (the substance being used which is sold as Marinol). Source is Monmouth Medical Center
i suggest folks look this up. Agitation treatment has been around a LONG time. It's true there's no FDA treatment approved for agitation in Alzheimers but Marinol IS an FDA approved drug for chemotherapy patients. According to the logic of the folks here, even though AVP-923 is FDA approved for something else, that doctors would prescribe off label... if so, they'd just use Marinol. It's already out there. Anyone care to refute this?
Your post is very nice... but it still doesn't address why Alzheimers patients with *any kind* of cardiac issues/histories were completely 100% excluded. I understand the "abundance of caution" but this eliminates 90%+ of Alzheimers patients. Whether you admit it or not, this is a very cherry picked study and is far too short of a period (10 weeks? really?). You realize 10 weeks is just over 2 months, right? The pumping here is nuts.
Yes, your statement makes sense... however, patients with any kind of cardiac issues were completely excluded. There were no baseline tests... just anyone with any history whatosever of any kind of heart issues were completely 100% excluded. Since you sound like a doctor, perhaps you can confirm or deny the research stating that most alzheimers patients have heart issues....
dood, you just stole my post from yesterday LOL. at least give credit to me :)
most alzheimers patients have heart issues... so excluding them is a big deal. Target patient population is dramatically lower than the 6M figure everyone is throwing out there. Basically, doctors can't prescribe this formula to any elderly alzheimers patients with heart issues. THat's 95% gone right there.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
so they can capture as many dollars as possible with as little dillution as possible. I say this as a current shareholder. We all know this price will not stay up here. Just be honest.
probably closer to $7.00 than $17 actually. On what basis will this go to $17? Did they get FDA clearance? nope... did they get a new label to treat Alzheimers? Nope... did they even begin phase 3 trials? nope. Seriously, stop the pumping.
congratulations on your $100,000. seriously. I hope you banked it. It's sinking tomorrow.
none of the above is opinion. Those were all facts and yet you haven't refuted any of it.
Jeffries also upgraded MNKD to 10 when it was trading at 8... it's now on its way to 6.00.
Their and There are different words. I suggest you learn the difference.
Ok Lorikshireward, here's some facts.. please dispute them 1 by 1.
1) PVA-923 Phase II trial for Alzheimers agitation relief excluded patients with potential cardiac issues and also those taking "certain drugs" (anyone know what those "certain drugs" are?)
2) Alzheimers patients are normally elderly, correct? Most elderly alzheimers patients have some kind of heart issue.
3) PVA-923 is made up of ingredients which are known to cause cardiac events.
4) Based on the above, the actual target audience of Alzheimers patients that were on this trial were otherwise healthy which is not the norm for Alzheimers patients. This means this trial group was cherry picked
5) The Phase II study here was only 10 weeks which is very short and does not cover long term safety
6) Phase III Trials will need to be greatly expanded to a larger # of patients, for a longer period of time which = $$$$$$$. But first, they need the FDA to say OK to doin gthis
7) FDA approval process cannot begin until after the Phase III trials end. They haven't even started to put the parameters of the Phase III together yet! So you're talking at least a year or two before the FDA can look at it and then it's 6 months after that (minimum) to get a decision.
Please correct me if i'm wrong on any of the above.
the patient targets are different and the formulations are different... first, for PBA, the age of the patient on average is far younger than Alzheimers patients. Further, patients with PBA don't normally have cardiomyopathies... some do i'm sure, and for those, they likely aren't perscribed this drug which is why you see only a very very small % of patients actually on it. However, for Alzheimers, a vast majority of them are elderly and a vast majority of those patients have cardiac issues. In fact, it has been determined a long time ago (and current studies keep confirming this) that there is a corrolation between heart diseases and alzheimers. So the target population for Alzheimers will be drastically smaller than the actual population with Alzheimers. There may be 6M alzheimer patients today, but actual target audience is likely 600K patients... out of those, you likely have many on drugs that conflict with PVA-923 so the chances of being an ideal candidate for this therapy is very small. You can dispute this all you want, but you know it's true.
especially since they will be marketing it to mostly the elderly which normally have cardiac issues and this drug can cause cardiac events (as AVNR's own data will tell you). No physician will perscribe this unless it's to a totally otherwise healthy patient which is VERY rare in alzheimers.
ridiculous... offlabel use means the patient covers the cost, not the insurance company. Further, there are big side effect risks for those with cardivascular histories (which is a majority of alzheimers patients) as well as those on "certain drugs." Would you want to be a doctor who writes a script for this and then your patient suffers a heart attack or some other drug-drug interaction event and then be sued for malpractice? Of course not...