There is still a risk that the 2nd tranche does not close, so they will play it safe and keep cash till it does.
It still looks like there is some spending going on at Gabon. I don't think they will just let it sit there.
Mr. Edmiston continued: "In spite of our best efforts, we were unable to reach an agreement on the terms of a transaction with Vitol that would meet Harvest's requirements on timing and certainty. As evidenced by Gabon's recent deepwater bid round, industry interest is very high in the Gabonese deepwater area. We have just completed our 1,130 square kilometer 3-D seismic acquisition covering Harvest's discoveries as well as the highly prospective outboard area of the block. Our discoveries on the block, our substantial prospect inventory, and the excellent prospectivity of our outboard area should continue to draw substantial industry interest."
I am sure there has to be some rules where Petroflow cannot buy shares on the open market once they make a formal offer.
There are probably a bunch of arbs buying at these prices
Petroflow has not filed any paperwork with the EDGAR so they have less than a 5% stake.
Midwest propane stocks measured 22.69 million barrels in the reporting week October 25, the lowest level since the corresponding week of 2004, data released by the US Energy Information Association showed Wednesday.
Propane demand has been strong in the Midcontinent amid crop drying and heating demand.
Crops such as soybeans and corn can either dry naturally in the field or mechanically in a crop-drying furnace prior to storage. A robust, late and wet crop harvest has resulted in a surge in propane demand for crop drying, according to sources.
Analyst Peter Fasullo of EnVantage estimated that 400,000 b/d of propane could be consumed over a 30-day period of crop drying this fall.
The key is 475 potential new drilling sites and 79% oil.
Equal has 40-50 potential new drill sites and 5% oil (both are approx. figures).
It is only worth what somebody is willing to pay.
August 28th: Chairman Michael Doyle sent letter to multiple interested parties and they were requested to submit expressions of interest.
September 6th: Received a revised $4.85 cash offer from Montclair.
November 18th: Strategic alternatives process was successful, resulting in a suitable option. Currently pursuing exclusive negotiations "as the terms, conditions and structuring details are being finalized"
If I read between the lines and hear "structuring details" that seems more like a merger or buyout with shares than a cash buyout.
My guess is $5.80. Why?
They turned down $4.85 as inadequate, came out with reserves 20% higher, so you would have to think that since they found a good offer it would have to be 20%+ more than $4.85.
How do you know it is a public company?
Yesterdays trading price or tomorrows trading price wont have an impact on buyout price.
I think buyout price has already been set and just going over last few details before it is finalized.
Doesn't look like NSLP is a buyer. This is from their latest conference call. Seems they will get property from parent company.
So when you look at the inventory we have in our books, we have four plus years of drilling inventory on the NSLP books. And additionally, we have lot of drill bid inventory at the parent. So from the perspective of having to go to do acquisitions, third-party acquisitions in order to deliver both maintain our production profile and deliver growth, we’re fortunate enough to have that in house. So we are not forced to do it.
We have identified some opportunities. And if we can acquire them for the appropriate price, we will, but we are very much focused on being a development company with the asset base we have on hand and within our control.
Totally agree with you. There has been plenty of time for somebody else to step up with an offer. And none has done it. And yes there were quite a few companies looking at the books. Right now the company is worth $4.85 as that is the best offer.
My concern is how financially strong Montclair is. I just don't know how deep their pockets are and if they are trying to do a 100% financing to come up with the cash. How much more equity do they have to put into the buyout?
I am in the same boat with you. It has been over a year with multiple investment bankers working on the strategic review and only ONE offer has shown up. There has to be a reason why that we dont know about. I will take best offer and move on to something else. You have 3 each 5% holders and I am sure they will take the money and run elsewhere with it. Plus lots of volume in past few months in the $4.50-$4.70 range. What is the thought process of these buyers? Are they long term holders looking for $7+ or are they short term traders looking for a revised offer of 20% higher than the $4.85 since reserves went up 20% from the time that offer was made? So maybe a revised $5.50 offer from Montclair????
Yes, there were multiple parties that had access to data room earlier this year.
I think the chairman of the board even said something about "time for them to make an offer if they want'. So yes, why no other offers?
The company is only worth what somebody is willing to pay for it, not what people think.
Sounds like the typical homeowner. Thinks house is worth $500K and puts it up for sale for $500K. After 6 months best offer is $400K. What is house worth?
Same for Equal. I have heard on these boards that company is worth $5.50 and even some saying $7-$10. This company has been in play for a year with a couple investment bankers shopping the company around. Multiple parties have looked at the books in the data room. Right now the company is worth $4.85 because that is the best offer so far.
If propane goes to $2, then company may be worth a lot more, but that is not now, that may happen.