What's different this time is the pps seems to be in a plateau, sort of. Even with the huge volume last Friday. I missed selling some at the 13 high in March, and taking no chances, sold 20% yesterday.
It's kind of spooky that our great guru suddenly turned a 180 and began worrying about Biocrysts' cash position in March. Then came the huge retreat in pps, making him right, but for all the wrong reasons.
So I got to wonder this weekend about all the fuss on the street about protease inhibitors Hep C. Please correct my history if you like.
Last year Biocryst had an inhibitor meltdown. It was based on guanine, worked well in petri dishes at low levels and with other critters. FDA had concerns because there were problems with another drug based on guanine. So, Biocryst tested their drug on monkeys at concentrations well below safety limits. I think there was only a 40% response or so. The question of whether the drug was patented by Biocryst or another co. was now mute. I'm SWAG guessing that all the protease inhibitors currently in market play are based on guanine. Could it be that our genius friends at Biocryst are cooking up a storm of new compounds based on guanine for testing? I haven't seen any advertisements for medicinal chemists at Biocryst, and their website opportunities page has no openings listed.
Like I said above - Dr Sheridan was incredible; clear, forthrite, made a great case for what the company is doing. The Dyax guy is their CFO I believe, and his presentation was not all that wonderful. Anybody listening has got to be impressed with Dr. Sheridan's compelling presentation.
How did a 1.25 M share trade occur without a huge pps change??
I got the round table on the Biocryst website replay.
Dr Sheridan was incredible; clear, forthrite, made a great case for what the company is doing. Was good on the round table with Dyax - no put downs - but head over heels more convincing in the Biocryst strategy. I can't think of anything more he could have done except to say maybe that what they are discovering is worth a billion. They've got a nice list of covering brokerages, but no real attention.
But, last week an approval for the hemophilia long acting drug, and another successful phase 3 report today, and stock goes down. Still, the pps did recover from the fall to 280. In a few months we will be OK.
Administration route: Dyax antibody by injection; 4161 by mouth.
Major advantage for Biocryst.
But this is not a competition; both drugs, and Cinryze, will get their due. The question for me is if the share buying public are going to respond to the information. I guess one could say going from pps 1.5 to 11 in less than a year is a response, but 11 is where we were years ago with far less of a pipeline. Biocryst needs a sell side fan club like Dyax has.
I believe that Stoney mentions in the 10-K that there are agreements in place to produce P, and since the synthesis is relatively short, they may be at work on alternate sourcing as we speak. I just wrote a note to PR.
Maybe they will answer.