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Biogen Inc. Message Board

capcod3 232 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 10, 2015 12:01 PM Member since: Nov 23, 2001
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  • Reply to

    large option trade May 10 calls

    by propjoe13 Apr 10, 2015 11:30 AM
    capcod3 capcod3 Apr 10, 2015 12:01 PM Flag

    what do you think that means?

  • capcod3 by capcod3 Apr 9, 2015 8:31 AM Flag

    Husky, thanks for the DYAX cc suggestion. I listened to the whole thing. My caveat is that I'm not a biologics expert. The data sounded very good (not subjected to peer review is troublesome.) The efficacy part is descriptive, patient by patient, not statistically evaluated as a whole. For the small number of subjects, I wonder how many doctors would say the efficacy "evidence" is compelling statistically. It's phase 1 efficacy evidence.

    They said they had no information yet on whether antibodies are raised in reaction to their drug. Wait and see if this is a safety problem.

    The last question about day 1 thru 16 caused some hesitation -- "yes, there were some problems but the result would have probably been the same if these were included" (not exact quote). I envisioned someone getting an under-the-table kick on that answer.

    Overall, good phase 1 presentation. Why does DYAX double and BCRX stagnate? Remember Merrill downgrading BCRX to pps of $8? Note that they are the lead firm on the DYAX transaction. Is there anything else one needs to know about the BCRX pps action?

  • Reply to

    DYAX is rocking

    by propjoe13 Apr 8, 2015 9:48 AM
    capcod3 capcod3 Apr 8, 2015 6:05 PM Flag

    Husky, thanks for the DYAX cc suggestion. I listened to the whole thing. My caveat is that I'm not a biologics expert. The data sounded very good (not subjected to peer review is troublesome.) The efficacy part is descriptive, patient by patient, not statistically evaluated as a whole. For the small number of subjects, I wonder how many doctors would say the efficacy "evidence" is compelling statistically. It's phase 1 efficacy evidence.

    They said they had no information yet on whether antibodies are raised in reaction to their drug. Wait and see if this is a safety problem.

    The last question about day 1 thru 16 caused some hesitation -- "yes, there were some problems but the result would have probably been the same if these were included" (not exact quote). I envisioned someone getting an under-the-table kick on that answer.

    Overall, good phase 1 presentation. Why does DYAX double and BCRX stagnate? Remember Merrill downgrading BCRX to pps of $8? Note that they are the lead firm on the DYAX transaction. Is there anything else one needs to know about the BCRX pps action?

  • Reply to

    7353 and 2nd Gen

    by makers_07 Apr 8, 2015 1:39 PM
    capcod3 capcod3 Apr 8, 2015 5:18 PM Flag

    I can relate husky. Just look at the Knicks. It's so bad, all that MSG talks about is '70 and '73. They won the championship 43 years ago. Oy.

  • Reply to

    DYAX is rocking

    by propjoe13 Apr 8, 2015 9:48 AM
    capcod3 capcod3 Apr 8, 2015 3:05 PM Flag

    Can you please explain? Just curious. I don't understand what you're talking about.

  • Reply to

    what does a HAE patient fear the most?

    by huskys4u2 Apr 6, 2015 10:35 AM
    capcod3 capcod3 Apr 6, 2015 11:05 AM Flag

    Didn't people have attacks while on Biocryst drug?

  • Reply to

    4161 is the next gout drug..

    by jack_hemmer_3 Mar 28, 2015 5:25 PM
    capcod3 capcod3 Apr 2, 2015 3:09 PM Flag

    Jack:
    Have you posted anything on this board about dx-2930 before Dyax's PR last week?

  • Reply to

    Did any one question these results..

    by jack_hemmer_3 Apr 1, 2015 11:49 AM
    capcod3 capcod3 Apr 1, 2015 3:10 PM Flag

    Jack. Read the PR carefully please: " A total of 37 subjects were randomized to active drug or placebo in a 2:1 ratio across 4 dosing groups of 30, 100, 300, or 400 mg. Each subject received two doses of DX-2930 or placebo, separated by 14 days, and was followed for 15 weeks after the second dose." That's 4 to 6 people per group, each person received only one amt of drug in 2 doses..

  • Reply to

    Shorting on DYAX?

    by kiwiarse Apr 1, 2015 10:25 AM
    capcod3 capcod3 Apr 1, 2015 12:18 PM Flag

    yes, BCRX results were all lumped together, and I remember Dr. Sheridan saying they did that to get truer statistics. He stressed this was a phase 1a trial of 8 weeks and that's all that could be said. He's a very thorough scientist. Dyax result on 400mg with what 6 people is inferior. To be fair, they should have included all doses.

    Ha.

    Reminds me of blowup last week over liver disease (NASH) co. Genfit.
    They tested their drug for three or four disease levels, and for the lowest disease level the people who got placebo had their disease unexpectedly improve. Maybe that's why Dyax only gave results for the high doses, and then only for the difference
    between before and after.

  • Reposting - this got deleted somehow

    Didn't anybody here notice the bottom line here

    total subjects 37, out of which 24 received drug and 13 received placebo.
    the 24 drug subjects were divided into 4 dose groups of 4 to 6 in each.
    so how can they with great certainty calculate p values when they don't even precisely pinpoint the number of attacks before and after for each group.

    These results are a great start, but they are way behind Biocryst, n'est ce pas.

    There is no reason for anyone to panic about results. However, on the street, panic first out of fear of what the other guy will do before you can.

    Furthermore, they don't even give us the total numbers of attacks that are occuring, so a low number of attacks to begin with in the subjects would also make the p value meaningless.

  • Reply to

    Did any one question these results..

    by jack_hemmer_3 Apr 1, 2015 11:49 AM
    capcod3 capcod3 Apr 1, 2015 11:53 AM Flag

    24 patients versus 4. phase 2a. good enough to proceed to phase 2b. That's all. Dyax results good enough for 1a, but not for a 50% rise in pps.

  • Reply to

    Shorting on DYAX?

    by kiwiarse Apr 1, 2015 10:25 AM
    capcod3 capcod3 Apr 1, 2015 11:24 AM Flag

    But what is a really realistic assessment of the market share for BCRX?
    A few hundred million? Based on the current MV of about $700M, that would be say 3 times eventual (4 years?) sales. If we allow for MV of 6 to 7 times sales, that could justify BCRX easily doubling the current pps.

    Is my back of the envelope calculation off the wall?

  • Reply to

    Shorting on DYAX?

    by kiwiarse Apr 1, 2015 10:25 AM
    capcod3 capcod3 Apr 1, 2015 10:53 AM Flag

    Right you are - See thread from last night "Now Wait Just a Minute". I'm glad sense came back to BCRX trading.

  • Reply to

    Short Interest

    by capcod3 Mar 30, 2015 5:27 PM
    capcod3 capcod3 Apr 1, 2015 3:39 AM Flag

    Thanks mdaddy1234. So roughly 1/3 volume is short sales at least for the past 2 days? Let me clarify - short sale = a sale exclusive of selling any shares already owned?

  • Reply to

    Wait Just a Minute

    by capcod3 Mar 31, 2015 7:28 PM
    capcod3 capcod3 Mar 31, 2015 9:45 PM Flag

    Furthermore, they don't even give us the total numbers of attacks that are occuring, so a low number of attacks to begin with in the subjects would also make the p value meaningless.

  • Reply to

    Wait Just a Minute

    by capcod3 Mar 31, 2015 7:28 PM
    capcod3 capcod3 Mar 31, 2015 9:41 PM Flag

    Jack: sorry my message board buddy, but I don't see how any body can calculate a p value much less get a Kaplan-Meier plot on 6 people. With that value n, p doesn't mean much in the world of biostatistics..

  • Didn't anybody here notice the bottom line here

    total subjects 37, out of which 24 received drug and 13 received placebo.
    the 24 drug subjects were divided into 4 dose groups of 6 each.
    so how can they with great certainty calculate p values when they don't even precisely pinpoint the number of attacks before and after for each group.

    These results are a great start, but they are way behind Biocryst, n'est ce pas.

    There is no reason for anyone to panic about results. However, on the street, panic first out of fear of what the other guy will do before you can.

  • Reply to

    after hours

    by dfgall Mar 31, 2015 4:27 PM
    capcod3 capcod3 Mar 31, 2015 6:47 PM Flag

    You're right. after over 1 M shares during the day, 40K shares after hours drives price down 80 cents??

  • Reply to

    BCX4430 benefits

    by maphere Mar 31, 2015 10:27 AM
    capcod3 capcod3 Mar 31, 2015 12:47 PM Flag

    Was the short needle episode under Stoney or a remnant of trial formulation under Bugg?

  • capcod3 capcod3 Mar 31, 2015 11:51 AM Flag

    I expect that the company needs to show some aggressiveness in marketing P. Street just not sure of company. Just look at today. Great news. Ho hum response.

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