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Alere Inc. Message Board

capitalkid 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 7, 2014 8:18 AM Member since: Feb 26, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Poster from Osiris

    by docsurick Aug 7, 2014 7:25 AM
    capitalkid capitalkid Aug 7, 2014 8:18 AM Flag

    I guess by earnings of 8.2M being ridiculous, you were expecting the 1.4M loss.

  • Reply to

    OT no mdxg news soooo

    by old_wisetrader Aug 6, 2014 9:48 AM
    capitalkid capitalkid Aug 6, 2014 2:39 PM Flag

    "I have been studying the LED distributors lately"

    Would love it if you would share. I've been doing the same on the thesis that LED sales will grow as their use in agriculture grows and becomes the new standard over halogen. Would be happy to take the discussion elsewhere since its not MDXG related.

  • capitalkid capitalkid Aug 6, 2014 2:36 PM Flag

    Um, because the analysts are doing their job and making sure that SG&A isn't going to go up as a % of revenue ... what did you expect?

    MiMedx's strategy is pretty obvious ... use gift of the disaster that is/was Shire to become the market leader and grow the top line as quickly as possible. Doing that requires investing in a sales force, naturally analysts wanted to make sure that the rise in SG&A was only due to that, which they understand pays for itself.

    The real metric of importance, yet to be achieved, is of course profit. If they can't start generating earnings soon, the stock is going down. All of my calculations line up with management's position that they have strong operating leverage which will drive significant profits above a threshold revenue.

  • Reply to

    Shareholder meeting informative, very upbeat

    by docsurick Jul 28, 2014 7:08 PM
    capitalkid capitalkid Aug 6, 2014 2:26 PM Flag

    The SS ETF could very well be the case. Many ETFs use a trust structure, with each share of the ETF each being a claim to a portion of the trust's assets. Unbeknown to most, the trust never actually purchases the underlying equities whose market performance ETF is designed to match. Instead, the trust borrows the shares and/or sells/buys swap contracts on the performance of the underlying.

    I'm not certain this is actually the reason for the short interest. For one, the listed SS Biotech ETF holdings of MDXG do not account for the majority of the short interest. Furthermore, I'm not entirely sure if the what's being reported as "short interest" is really "borrowed shares". I should know the answer to this, and am surprised I don't. I'll ask around. If "short interest" really is "borrowed shares", then it is very misleading as there are many many many reasons to borrow shares.

    In any case, I hope all of it is shorts. I think it was OWO who noted that all shorts are future buyers. Gotta love that, especially at our avg daily volume ...

  • Reply to

    Whomever is using Edge to short today -

    by pacorabon69 Aug 6, 2014 1:54 PM
    capitalkid capitalkid Aug 6, 2014 2:14 PM Flag

    EDGX or EDGA?

    They have inverse liquidity rebate/fee structures as one is designed to be a liquidity source and the other a sink. It could easily be MMs simply doing their job. If it's 100 lot trades than it's all but certain to be an HFT playing the liquidity rebate game.

  • capitalkid capitalkid Jul 28, 2014 4:57 PM Flag

    That generic response, containing absolutely zero information, tells all.

    Either you have a great reason to short, or you are simply gambling and hoping for the best (worst).

    If you actually had a valid thesis to short, especially one that is so easy all one needs to do is "wake up and look closely", then you would be spreading the word to drive price down as longs dump and switch teams. Get that ... it is in your interest to tell everyone what they are missing.

    Put up or shut up.

  • Reply to

    shorted more today and yesterday

    by halloweencandy2013 Jul 16, 2014 3:45 PM
    capitalkid capitalkid Jul 17, 2014 12:28 PM Flag

    hah, that's it?!
    I can't believe I was ever taking your short-talk of an unknown risk as serious. Here I was thinking you were Big Money.

  • Reply to

    loved the close

    by capitalkid Jul 15, 2014 4:12 PM
    capitalkid capitalkid Jul 15, 2014 6:20 PM Flag

    Having followed the speeches of committee members for years, I would say Yellen walked in lockstep with Bernanke when he was Fed Chair, and looks to him as a role model rather than Greenspan.

  • capitalkid by capitalkid Jul 15, 2014 4:12 PM Flag

    Volume at the close was strong, relative to the light-volume day, and price action finally decoupled from the biotech sector (proxy via IBB). Perhaps now that the earnings date has been released, the rumor numbers are starting to circulate :)

  • Reply to

    Looks like only action is short sellers

    by docsurick Jul 11, 2014 12:33 PM
    capitalkid capitalkid Jul 14, 2014 3:01 PM Flag

    But candy has NOT stated his thesis. Instead he continually alludes to some sort of major issue that we just don't see it, despite the fact that "we don't have to look far" to see it. Along with this issue comes the standard short references to Pete's trial, the biologics issue, competition etc. To me, each of those have been addressed aside from the FDA issue.

    Is that it? Is it simply the FDA outcome that shorts are betting on?

  • Reply to

    Looks like only action is short sellers

    by docsurick Jul 11, 2014 12:33 PM
    capitalkid capitalkid Jul 12, 2014 7:12 PM Flag

    I completely agree. Not knowing the short thesis has been bothering me more and more as of late.

    I see nothing but absolutely great things ahead for this company. From where I sit, MiMedx looks massively undervalued and is at the very beginning of a multi-year growth spurt. The operating leverage built into their business has me counting the cash ahead of time. Once they pass break-even in Q3 or Q4 then it is nothing but massive earnings growth on out.

    This makes me worried. Whenever I get this excited about a company, yet see that "the street" is massively discounting it, then I always wonder what I'm missing. Last summer, as the price was declining despite all the good news and numbers, I kept asking myself the same question "what does the street know that I don't?". Should I take some profit off the top and buy back in later? Sure enough, a short while later, the FDA Untitled letter came out and the stock tanked.

    I'm asking myself the same question these days. I would love to know the thesis of the shorts. I want to know all that I can about this company. I have a sizable percentage of my portfolio invested in it, because from all of my research this company looks like an amazing investment.

    I sincerely wish one of the shorts would explain their thinking. I'm not here to bash -- my ears are open -- if MiMedx has some gigantic shortcoming, I want to know about it.

  • Reply to

    Thompson.john70

    by halloweencandy2013 Jul 6, 2014 5:32 PM
    capitalkid capitalkid Jul 8, 2014 11:58 PM Flag

    come on man, no need to misrepresent Taylor's trades ...

    He clearly had an automatic stock sale plan in place to sell shares at $7.5. Once that price hit, his shares sold automatically and then when it came time to settle the trade he simply exercised his options to actually deliver the shares.

    Bill now owns less options than he did prior to these trades, which is obviously a reduction in his long exposure to MDXG stock. There is nothing bullish about this. At best it is neutral since it was an automated sale.

    That said, there is plenty to be bullish about. Let's let the Q3 and Q4 revenue do the talking for all of us longs.

  • Reply to

    Fantastic news on short interest!

    by homebuilder_watcher Jun 24, 2014 4:13 PM
    capitalkid capitalkid Jun 25, 2014 3:43 PM Flag

    naked short sellers? what makes you think anyone is naked short selling?

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