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Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation Message Board

capn_intriguo 18 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 5, 2014 4:59 PM Member since: Apr 3, 2003
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  • Long or short holler if ya feel me.

  • How are you doing it? Literally, I tried to do so using my online broker but was told that it is restricted, and shares are not available for shorting. Please advise. I'm serious. Please don't hate on me because this thing is a sell.

  • Lord knows I have made nice cash long this beast. That was the ez money. Shorts are being ripped here, but they will have their day. I dumped everything today (300 shares). 100 of what was left from my 1.82 (500 shares) position I established years ago, and 200 I picked up at the close yesterday at $11.70. Look to sell the open tomorrow. Maybe re-establish in the low 12's if you are a believer.

    Good luck to all. I love this stock. The company is another matter. Now watching RSH cautiously waiting to see if it can stabilize for a few months.

  • capn_intriguo by capn_intriguo Jan 16, 2014 8:07 PM Flag

    For a a cheap stock this thing has a lot of volatility. Every stock has a personality. There is a pretty healthy float on this thing, and institutional players seem not to have had a lot of love for this can. That will soon change. This business has a very long business cycle. It would actually help this stock if more people would be short it, but I guess the majority of smart money would view such a play as just dumb. But do please try. Shorting a ten dollar stock or less could be so ruinous but if people are so full of confidence and ignorance all I can do is wish them luck and great success. Management could really get this stock to move if they did a reverse split. I believe it would cost the company basically nothing they could tighten the float, which would accelerate price movement. Think about it, if this was now a $22 stock, it would still be following the upward momentum it has, and a smaller float would be headwinds. Just a thought. I've got 500 of these honeys, and am looking to accumulate more on pullbacks. Good luck to all.

  • capn_intriguo capn_intriguo Jan 9, 2014 5:56 PM Flag

    Not really sure why I would lie. I know I am wiser about this stock than anyone else, again $1.82 a share dude. I wished I had owned more. An opportunity this great and this easy is a once maybe twice in a lifetime. If you are long and continue to believe there is more room to run best wishes and good luck, my race is run, adios. Philosophies and beliefs are interesting to share and discuss they really have no place in making investment decisions and in the long run will probably lose you money.

  • This party is just about over. What we are witnessing is the nearing of the capitulation moment for shorts. They are at the point of maximum pain, and are throwing in the towel. They couldn't have been more wrong bout this stock. They are desperate and need stock, but guess what a-holes. Not too much of it around at these levels. I put mine up at 16.50. I expect they will reach for it in the next few sessions, They will cover at the top (from me (and perhaps you), and this thing will then promptly collapse 3-4 points at which point I will consider buying it back. The EZ money is over for this thing. Don't really care for guns myself. Kind of wish the govt. would buy out these companies (lord knows this thing is dirt cheap), and put an end to this national insanity over guns. My philosophy is I wish they were illegal, but if morons want to buy these things, that is their legal right, but wished it wasn' so. This investment was my best play ever. Thanks for the memories stock, and congratulations to those who "stuck to their guns" and used common sense rather than hype and hysteria to make a very sagacious investment.

    Best to all.

  • management has put a floor of $10 on this (minus market risk). Any trade before deal closes is churn and dead money.

  • Reply to

    All in all a great day

    by capn_intriguo Mar 6, 2013 4:19 PM
    capn_intriguo capn_intriguo Mar 6, 2013 4:22 PM Flag

    After I hit enter I read options brief. I guess I'm not the only one thinking the same thing. 3,000 Sept $15 calls! I wish I was that smart. Someone has a very strong incentive to push this stock.

  • capn_intriguo by capn_intriguo Mar 6, 2013 4:19 PM Flag

    High volume, very orderly selling. Those who wanted to sell got a reasonable price, and those who bought got a good deal fully transparent price (everything is priced in). It had a nice runup lately the stock is taking a breather. That is healthy. The stock is redistributed to new shareholders, and short term traders establish and consolidate new positions. I am glad that this stock didn't go crazy. It is an old school strong stock. Trading every tick is the wrong play here. Minus swings due to the calendar, and media blitzes about shootings, this stock has a clear net direction so it makes sense to have a long net position. The bigger the pop, the bigger the drop. Slow and steady wins this race. Set limit price sales around 15 if the ticks drive you crazy. You will awake one morning about a year from now sad to be out of your position, but happy that you made a healthy return. Nothing lasts forever, don't be greedy.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Whatever, it's not going to go down.

    by capn_intriguo Mar 5, 2013 4:29 PM
    capn_intriguo capn_intriguo Mar 5, 2013 4:48 PM Flag

    Let's be realistic here. It has run considerably in the last few days. It is all kind of priced in. Hang in there. If anything if I had the cash I'd accumulate more below ten (I don't I only own a few hundred shares). Everyone wants a big pop. With big pop you get big drop, slow and steady, a few % return a quarter.

  • Good News is funds who wanted out or who said they are getting out are more than likely out at this point. To be short now is just admitting you are a loser and I sincerely wish them the best of luck. Those who have the capital, can crush this stock (or any other stock) if they chose to with aggressive shorting but why do it. They should research the 3/4's of the S&P that are producing fraudulent earnings and take the wind out of those sails. I really fail to see any sensible or nonsensible why short interest in this company is so high. Either way shorting this stock is a + catalyst, so keep it up I guess.

  • There is no way to spin these earnings or the company's valuation in any other than a positive. Someone who is interested in making money will buy this company. It's not sexy, some might say it's immoral but it is legal and it generates cash and is growing. Look at the YOY comparisons for net income. What manufacturer is doing this? This company is valued very conservatively. At $700M it is a no brainer. People are concerned about regulation. Are you kidding. This company is so cheap if the government has a problem with SWHC's products they should pay a paltry $1 billion for it to satisfy shareholders and #$%$. (last word is U.) There goes the uncertainty argument.

    Bottom line, I own this company, I have for a while, I'm not selling. They need to expand production, raise prices, and go more international. The brand is established.

  • It's ez to lose perspective after it has run so much, but I truly believe it is early for this stock. I think this thing could easily be in the teens in a year or so (I mean high teens). Until proven otherwise, this is a rare stock that has one direction. If it had a sustained down move it might be time to reconsider but until then, why try and stop a freight train and I think I'd regret jumping off if I'm already on it. Individual earnings might be an opportunity to lock in profits and reestablish slightly lower. I don't much care for long term investing, but this is one I will let ride.

  • 1) Look at the float: review concepts of supply and demand.
    2) Going into historical earnings tomorrow: review concept of real cash earnings as opposed to accounting fraud ramapant at 3/4's of S&P stocks (accept and believe it).
    3) This stock refuses to go down: review concept of trend.
    4) Are you smarter than the raving hordes of lunatics who have legal right to own handguns: research what SWHC produces, hint: not automatic assault weapons.
    5) Are you a patriot? Not that you need to be one to be long this company, but it's kind of what this country [sic guns] is about on a lot of levels, like it or not (I don't). Freedom for better or worse (generally worse). There awful product is made designed and manufactured in the good old US of A. How many other "legitimate companies" can claim that.

    Like it or not this stock is going up. I don't like it, but I'm not an idiot. I don't make the laws of this country, I don't like many of them, but I if I can profit from mass insanity, I'd be a fool not to. Good luck to all.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • capn_intriguo capn_intriguo Dec 7, 2012 5:36 PM Flag

    My understanding is that a company repurchasing shares is really the insiders (directors, ceo, and major stakeholders) are exercising options at a much lower price.The company buys the shares to exercise option and then dumps the shares into marketplace.

  • capn_intriguo by capn_intriguo Apr 7, 2003 11:58 AM Flag

    I wouldn't be loading the boat at this point but I think it is safe to be long here and this is a decent company that has worked hard to put the past behind them. For chrissakes they don't make weapons, pollute, make asbestos, sell cancer sticks, or defraud people. They just make toys for kids. Who can't get behind that

  • capn_intriguo by capn_intriguo Apr 7, 2003 11:55 AM Flag

    I just call them like I see em. The chart still looks really good. Sure this thing is following the trend today which is a great catalyst but the bottom line is I think this think is going to about 25-27, with possible downside to $21 or so. I'm long this thing for a few years I picked up 5 "hunnies" at $10.75. This thing is an american icon and don't you think GI Joe will be selling well and in years to come wait till they come out with jihad johnnie.

  • capn_intriguo by capn_intriguo Apr 3, 2003 4:39 PM Flag

    this chart is looking really good

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