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Zillow Group, Inc. Message Board

capntrps 696 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 12, 2015 10:29 AM Member since: Apr 1, 1998
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  • capntrps by capntrps Oct 12, 2015 10:29 AM Flag

    Easily one of the most interesting stocks in the market now. Can't wait to see what happens next.

  • capntrps by capntrps Oct 8, 2015 12:01 PM Flag

    I am not to worried about the short term gyrations of this stock. It is going to happen. Slowly accumulating. The big risk to the company is the macro economic environment that could limit capital to this highly leveraged co and unfortunately take it to $0, high cost of capital/debt could also limit expected performance. If they are able to execute w/o the capital markets "freezing" the upside is substantial. JMHO

  • Reply to

    Will finish in green!

    by aathebigdogg Oct 6, 2015 10:51 AM
    capntrps capntrps Oct 6, 2015 4:00 PM Flag

    Almost. Great recovery since midday. I will look for op to reload my puts if this keeps popping.

  • capntrps by capntrps Oct 6, 2015 12:04 PM Flag

    My best guess is that we just saw the low of the day. I would not be surprised if there will be lower lows over the next few months. Covered puts, will look to reload. JMHO

  • Reply to

    Will finish in green!

    by aathebigdogg Oct 6, 2015 10:51 AM
    capntrps capntrps Oct 6, 2015 11:06 AM Flag

    Bwah... Doubtful, you better hope the entire market rallies a couple of percent to drag this up. This is really trading poorly, partially due to acq, but probably also due to expectations that Apple will miss. This has not been priced in yet. JMHO

  • capntrps capntrps Sep 30, 2015 11:54 AM Flag

    This may trade that low if the markets continue to sell off, which I think is possible.

    If it gets to that price then this is selling for the current value of the Yieldcos and there would be no value attributed to SUNE itself. There is execution risk to this stock as the Yieldcos need to be able to access the equity markets and SUNE will probably need more debt. Even at this price you basically have an option against their business model. If they can pull off what they are attempting then the stake SUNE owns of the Yieldcos alone could be worth $10-15 or more in a few years. In my opinion the big risks are macroeconomic, if we have another liquidity shock like '08 and/or a bad recession/depression(I do think this could happen), then it could derail SUNEs biz model and/or erode the potential returns due to substantial dilution. Balance this share price against the macro and the execution risk and you see a stock that could be $0 vs a stock that could easily be $30+ in a few years. Not the worst risk reward for speculative money. JMHO

  • capntrps capntrps Sep 29, 2015 12:48 PM Flag

    Yes markets are manipulated. I doubt that this stock will bounce and hold it for long. Look for $60s or below unless the fed can prop markets back up.

  • Reply to

    Balance sheet

    by fap103 Sep 5, 2015 11:27 AM
    capntrps capntrps Sep 11, 2015 11:05 AM Flag

    I certainly like buying this today on the weakness due to the cash on hand and pos. CF. This looks well priced to say the least. $20 though??? I doubt it, it has not traded there in a few years. Concerns are operational and macroeconomic, but with the current price/buybacks/CF this provides lots of positive catalysts for price appreciation. JMHO

  • Reply to

    close over $10

    by wesam120283 Aug 5, 2015 11:19 AM
    capntrps capntrps Aug 5, 2015 1:00 PM Flag

    Unless there are structural problems that will end growth, slash margins, etc.. this looks to be a decent entry point. Approx 60% of mkt cap in cash and building, Just needs to continue growth and stay around BE cash flow or better. Both which appear likely if they can execute at all. Trade now til $12+ or build position over near term for long-term investment.

  • capntrps by capntrps Jul 1, 2015 1:00 PM Flag

    This has got to see CF projections and value of assets on the book erode. Sorry, I think this has quite a ways on the downside, hope to see sub $100 soon... Tough to hold unless oil and gas recover strongly.

  • capntrps by capntrps May 14, 2015 2:45 PM Flag

    While I agree with most that the fundamentals do not justify the current mkt cap, I also believe that this stock is going to trade a lot higher. Why, because when you compare the fundamentals of this co. with the fundamentals of most of the other low float stocks out there, this thing looks dirt cheep. In this market we could easily see pops to $6+ if not higher. I am in for the trade, and hey, if their actually is a fundamental story here, well that is fine too. JMHO

  • capntrps by capntrps May 8, 2015 12:14 PM Flag

    Follow up to my last post. I sold today at $4.4 and will look for a very quick repositioning as I see this moving quite a bit higher. Just too big a move up and will hope to reposition at $4.1 to 3.9. No one knows short term movements, but this will hopefully get me positioned for a move to $5+. JMHO.

  • capntrps by capntrps May 7, 2015 10:27 AM Flag

    I think that this pull back will present a nice near term trading opp. This co looks likely to have a pop to $5+ in the near term, maybe more as these low float stocks can really move when they catch some volume. JMHO, will hold near term for the swing trade and see if I am correct.

  • capntrps by capntrps Mar 27, 2015 11:18 AM Flag

    I focked up based on my last post. I did not repurchase when this fell toward $3.50 and now I am chasing. I how that this is going to set higher lows and higher highs relative to the past trading range in the $2s to $4s. Hopin' for the best.

  • Reply to

    Catch a falling knife?

    by itsa1188 Mar 26, 2015 9:00 PM
    capntrps capntrps Mar 27, 2015 11:15 AM Flag

    I think that is the correct action and have also made 2x purchases a week ago and today. Not sure about the long term of this co. but have had success trading these low float stocks when I purchase them "low" and wait for a pop. Based on mkt cap this can easily pop 50% from these levels if there is good news reported.

  • capntrps by capntrps Mar 23, 2015 2:22 PM Flag

    My last post I said to buy in the $2's and sell in the $4's. Not certain if we will see that again in the near term, or if we will see higher highs. Higher highs may be a better bet at this time. JMHO

  • Reply to

    SRPT

    by capntrps Mar 10, 2015 2:51 PM
    capntrps capntrps Mar 11, 2015 12:35 PM Flag

    Why do you see a cap on price if they receive approval in the next six months.

  • Reply to

    SRPT

    by capntrps Mar 10, 2015 2:51 PM
    capntrps capntrps Mar 11, 2015 11:41 AM Flag

    I agree with most of this and would not be surprised by another delay, I doubt they would 'need' more capital, but they 'may' raise capital which would certainly hurt the potential upside valuation if they were to be revenue generating company. Hope for smooth sailing and this should have a much higher price within a year.

  • capntrps by capntrps Mar 10, 2015 2:51 PM Flag

    I am expecting a 50% chance of approval for DMD or better. Putting that in context of the current share price and cash on the books, this stock has a very favorable risk profile. 50% downside if they do not get approval and multiples to the upside if they do. Having a drug with this level of expected sales would allow this co. a ton of flexibility to bring out some of their other technologies and or buy things raise capital, etc... Their is a pretty good track record of scientists behind this company, they may have a platform technology and you can buy them at a pretty decent price today. JMHO but this is one of the more compelling biotech values out there today, Due to the binary outcome in the near future it will determine which direction the investment goes.

  • Reply to

    Big drop in NAV per share from $6.28 to $5.74 Y-Y

    by donf22 Feb 25, 2015 2:34 PM
    capntrps capntrps Mar 5, 2015 2:38 PM Flag

    I believe that the primary cause of NAV drop would be depreciation. This should be $110-130mil/yr. CSG holds all RE on the books at purchase price then depreciates. Then most income is paid out in divs. I have not been through the 'books' to review everything, but this appears most likely. JMHO

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