I am not to worried about the short term gyrations of this stock. It is going to happen. Slowly accumulating. The big risk to the company is the macro economic environment that could limit capital to this highly leveraged co and unfortunately take it to $0, high cost of capital/debt could also limit expected performance. If they are able to execute w/o the capital markets "freezing" the upside is substantial. JMHO
Bwah... Doubtful, you better hope the entire market rallies a couple of percent to drag this up. This is really trading poorly, partially due to acq, but probably also due to expectations that Apple will miss. This has not been priced in yet. JMHO
This may trade that low if the markets continue to sell off, which I think is possible.
If it gets to that price then this is selling for the current value of the Yieldcos and there would be no value attributed to SUNE itself. There is execution risk to this stock as the Yieldcos need to be able to access the equity markets and SUNE will probably need more debt. Even at this price you basically have an option against their business model. If they can pull off what they are attempting then the stake SUNE owns of the Yieldcos alone could be worth $10-15 or more in a few years. In my opinion the big risks are macroeconomic, if we have another liquidity shock like '08 and/or a bad recession/depression(I do think this could happen), then it could derail SUNEs biz model and/or erode the potential returns due to substantial dilution. Balance this share price against the macro and the execution risk and you see a stock that could be $0 vs a stock that could easily be $30+ in a few years. Not the worst risk reward for speculative money. JMHO
Yes markets are manipulated. I doubt that this stock will bounce and hold it for long. Look for $60s or below unless the fed can prop markets back up.
I certainly like buying this today on the weakness due to the cash on hand and pos. CF. This looks well priced to say the least. $20 though??? I doubt it, it has not traded there in a few years. Concerns are operational and macroeconomic, but with the current price/buybacks/CF this provides lots of positive catalysts for price appreciation. JMHO
Unless there are structural problems that will end growth, slash margins, etc.. this looks to be a decent entry point. Approx 60% of mkt cap in cash and building, Just needs to continue growth and stay around BE cash flow or better. Both which appear likely if they can execute at all. Trade now til $12+ or build position over near term for long-term investment.
This has got to see CF projections and value of assets on the book erode. Sorry, I think this has quite a ways on the downside, hope to see sub $100 soon... Tough to hold unless oil and gas recover strongly.
While I agree with most that the fundamentals do not justify the current mkt cap, I also believe that this stock is going to trade a lot higher. Why, because when you compare the fundamentals of this co. with the fundamentals of most of the other low float stocks out there, this thing looks dirt cheep. In this market we could easily see pops to $6+ if not higher. I am in for the trade, and hey, if their actually is a fundamental story here, well that is fine too. JMHO
Follow up to my last post. I sold today at $4.4 and will look for a very quick repositioning as I see this moving quite a bit higher. Just too big a move up and will hope to reposition at $4.1 to 3.9. No one knows short term movements, but this will hopefully get me positioned for a move to $5+. JMHO.
I think that this pull back will present a nice near term trading opp. This co looks likely to have a pop to $5+ in the near term, maybe more as these low float stocks can really move when they catch some volume. JMHO, will hold near term for the swing trade and see if I am correct.
I focked up based on my last post. I did not repurchase when this fell toward $3.50 and now I am chasing. I how that this is going to set higher lows and higher highs relative to the past trading range in the $2s to $4s. Hopin' for the best.
I think that is the correct action and have also made 2x purchases a week ago and today. Not sure about the long term of this co. but have had success trading these low float stocks when I purchase them "low" and wait for a pop. Based on mkt cap this can easily pop 50% from these levels if there is good news reported.
My last post I said to buy in the $2's and sell in the $4's. Not certain if we will see that again in the near term, or if we will see higher highs. Higher highs may be a better bet at this time. JMHO
I agree with most of this and would not be surprised by another delay, I doubt they would 'need' more capital, but they 'may' raise capital which would certainly hurt the potential upside valuation if they were to be revenue generating company. Hope for smooth sailing and this should have a much higher price within a year.
I am expecting a 50% chance of approval for DMD or better. Putting that in context of the current share price and cash on the books, this stock has a very favorable risk profile. 50% downside if they do not get approval and multiples to the upside if they do. Having a drug with this level of expected sales would allow this co. a ton of flexibility to bring out some of their other technologies and or buy things raise capital, etc... Their is a pretty good track record of scientists behind this company, they may have a platform technology and you can buy them at a pretty decent price today. JMHO but this is one of the more compelling biotech values out there today, Due to the binary outcome in the near future it will determine which direction the investment goes.
I believe that the primary cause of NAV drop would be depreciation. This should be $110-130mil/yr. CSG holds all RE on the books at purchase price then depreciates. Then most income is paid out in divs. I have not been through the 'books' to review everything, but this appears most likely. JMHO