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Zillow Group, Inc. Message Board

capntrps 688 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 5, 2015 1:00 PM Member since: Apr 1, 1998
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  • Reply to

    close over $10

    by wesam120283 Aug 5, 2015 11:19 AM
    capntrps capntrps Aug 5, 2015 1:00 PM Flag

    Unless there are structural problems that will end growth, slash margins, etc.. this looks to be a decent entry point. Approx 60% of mkt cap in cash and building, Just needs to continue growth and stay around BE cash flow or better. Both which appear likely if they can execute at all. Trade now til $12+ or build position over near term for long-term investment.

  • capntrps by capntrps Jul 1, 2015 1:00 PM Flag

    This has got to see CF projections and value of assets on the book erode. Sorry, I think this has quite a ways on the downside, hope to see sub $100 soon... Tough to hold unless oil and gas recover strongly.

  • capntrps by capntrps May 14, 2015 2:45 PM Flag

    While I agree with most that the fundamentals do not justify the current mkt cap, I also believe that this stock is going to trade a lot higher. Why, because when you compare the fundamentals of this co. with the fundamentals of most of the other low float stocks out there, this thing looks dirt cheep. In this market we could easily see pops to $6+ if not higher. I am in for the trade, and hey, if their actually is a fundamental story here, well that is fine too. JMHO

  • capntrps by capntrps May 8, 2015 12:14 PM Flag

    Follow up to my last post. I sold today at $4.4 and will look for a very quick repositioning as I see this moving quite a bit higher. Just too big a move up and will hope to reposition at $4.1 to 3.9. No one knows short term movements, but this will hopefully get me positioned for a move to $5+. JMHO.

  • capntrps by capntrps May 7, 2015 10:27 AM Flag

    I think that this pull back will present a nice near term trading opp. This co looks likely to have a pop to $5+ in the near term, maybe more as these low float stocks can really move when they catch some volume. JMHO, will hold near term for the swing trade and see if I am correct.

  • capntrps by capntrps Mar 27, 2015 11:18 AM Flag

    I focked up based on my last post. I did not repurchase when this fell toward $3.50 and now I am chasing. I how that this is going to set higher lows and higher highs relative to the past trading range in the $2s to $4s. Hopin' for the best.

  • Reply to

    Catch a falling knife?

    by itsa1188 Mar 26, 2015 9:00 PM
    capntrps capntrps Mar 27, 2015 11:15 AM Flag

    I think that is the correct action and have also made 2x purchases a week ago and today. Not sure about the long term of this co. but have had success trading these low float stocks when I purchase them "low" and wait for a pop. Based on mkt cap this can easily pop 50% from these levels if there is good news reported.

  • capntrps by capntrps Mar 23, 2015 2:22 PM Flag

    My last post I said to buy in the $2's and sell in the $4's. Not certain if we will see that again in the near term, or if we will see higher highs. Higher highs may be a better bet at this time. JMHO

  • Reply to

    SRPT

    by capntrps Mar 10, 2015 2:51 PM
    capntrps capntrps Mar 11, 2015 12:35 PM Flag

    Why do you see a cap on price if they receive approval in the next six months.

  • Reply to

    SRPT

    by capntrps Mar 10, 2015 2:51 PM
    capntrps capntrps Mar 11, 2015 11:41 AM Flag

    I agree with most of this and would not be surprised by another delay, I doubt they would 'need' more capital, but they 'may' raise capital which would certainly hurt the potential upside valuation if they were to be revenue generating company. Hope for smooth sailing and this should have a much higher price within a year.

  • capntrps by capntrps Mar 10, 2015 2:51 PM Flag

    I am expecting a 50% chance of approval for DMD or better. Putting that in context of the current share price and cash on the books, this stock has a very favorable risk profile. 50% downside if they do not get approval and multiples to the upside if they do. Having a drug with this level of expected sales would allow this co. a ton of flexibility to bring out some of their other technologies and or buy things raise capital, etc... Their is a pretty good track record of scientists behind this company, they may have a platform technology and you can buy them at a pretty decent price today. JMHO but this is one of the more compelling biotech values out there today, Due to the binary outcome in the near future it will determine which direction the investment goes.

  • Reply to

    Big drop in NAV per share from $6.28 to $5.74 Y-Y

    by donf22 Feb 25, 2015 2:34 PM
    capntrps capntrps Mar 5, 2015 2:38 PM Flag

    I believe that the primary cause of NAV drop would be depreciation. This should be $110-130mil/yr. CSG holds all RE on the books at purchase price then depreciates. Then most income is paid out in divs. I have not been through the 'books' to review everything, but this appears most likely. JMHO

  • capntrps by capntrps Mar 3, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    This has been a good Q and year. The co has really built(rebuilt) value cash flow and financial flexibility. I expect this breakout will see some follow through with downside protection if the price slips. Mainly concerned about a macro breakdown. JMHO

  • capntrps by capntrps Feb 19, 2015 10:08 AM Flag

    I hold a small position in this stock. I expect this could continue to show pops like we have seen over the past few months and hit some higher levels. Due to current market conditions and low dollar/float of this stock, when this pops it can move a lot in a day or two. Over all not a bad fundamental play and should continue to have big swings for traders. JMHO

  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by kevinpatkelly Dec 4, 2014 9:09 PM
    capntrps capntrps Dec 5, 2014 11:02 AM Flag

    I agree that this could be under some near term pressure due to expected capital needs. They show some concerns that they will not be able to create a substantial positive margin on sales and that the company will not be worth that much. If they are able to continue growth and show a light at the end of the tunnel(positive cash flow), then this company could be worth substantially more. I expect a purchase soon, and another if the price continues to drop near term, I expect a much better stock price within a year.

  • capntrps by capntrps Oct 3, 2014 1:59 PM Flag

    Surprised there is not more volume and price action w all the news. Seems strange. I would bet on another move to .23+ into the upcoming meeting. JMHO

  • capntrps by capntrps Sep 10, 2014 12:09 PM Flag

    I am very impressed with the trading of late. Unless the market really tanks,this appears to be showing some relative strength and I would expect higher prices over the next six months to a year. I suspect I will be adding to position. JMHO

  • capntrps by capntrps Sep 10, 2014 10:44 AM Flag

    This move was pretty obvious, as there was no way APPL was going to use this til they could handle the volume appl requires(if they will every use it at all). Easy trade into yesterday, and dump after the news.

    I will say that I still think this stock is WAY overvalued and they are in huge dilution, there will be some positive catalysts coming up and the potential for more significant revenue. Not sure if this comes even close to justifying valuation, but I think there could be a nice trade back to $.23-.24 in the near term.

  • capntrps by capntrps Sep 4, 2014 3:55 PM Flag

    It looks like this stock is getting ready to rally. If the mkt falls it may hold it lower, otherwise I would expect decent things in the near term. Longer term I think this is very cheep and could do really well($100+). JMHO

  • capntrps by capntrps Sep 4, 2014 3:30 PM Flag

    This stock needs volume to get any follow through. Need a couple mil to finish the day to see a new near term high. I would still look to sell b4 the ninth. JMHO

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