I am not to worried about the short term gyrations of this stock. It is going to happen. Slowly accumulating. The big risk to the company is the macro economic environment that could limit capital to this highly leveraged co and unfortunately take it to $0, high cost of capital/debt could also limit expected performance. If they are able to execute w/o the capital markets "freezing" the upside is substantial. JMHO
This may trade that low if the markets continue to sell off, which I think is possible.
If it gets to that price then this is selling for the current value of the Yieldcos and there would be no value attributed to SUNE itself. There is execution risk to this stock as the Yieldcos need to be able to access the equity markets and SUNE will probably need more debt. Even at this price you basically have an option against their business model. If they can pull off what they are attempting then the stake SUNE owns of the Yieldcos alone could be worth $10-15 or more in a few years. In my opinion the big risks are macroeconomic, if we have another liquidity shock like '08 and/or a bad recession/depression(I do think this could happen), then it could derail SUNEs biz model and/or erode the potential returns due to substantial dilution. Balance this share price against the macro and the execution risk and you see a stock that could be $0 vs a stock that could easily be $30+ in a few years. Not the worst risk reward for speculative money. JMHO
Yes markets are manipulated. I doubt that this stock will bounce and hold it for long. Look for $60s or below unless the fed can prop markets back up.
Unless there are structural problems that will end growth, slash margins, etc.. this looks to be a decent entry point. Approx 60% of mkt cap in cash and building, Just needs to continue growth and stay around BE cash flow or better. Both which appear likely if they can execute at all. Trade now til $12+ or build position over near term for long-term investment.
I certainly like buying this today on the weakness due to the cash on hand and pos. CF. This looks well priced to say the least. $20 though??? I doubt it, it has not traded there in a few years. Concerns are operational and macroeconomic, but with the current price/buybacks/CF this provides lots of positive catalysts for price appreciation. JMHO
Bwah... Doubtful, you better hope the entire market rallies a couple of percent to drag this up. This is really trading poorly, partially due to acq, but probably also due to expectations that Apple will miss. This has not been priced in yet. JMHO