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Zillow Group, Inc. Message Board

capntrps 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 27, 2015 11:18 AM Member since: Apr 1, 1998
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  • capntrps by capntrps Feb 19, 2015 10:08 AM Flag

    I hold a small position in this stock. I expect this could continue to show pops like we have seen over the past few months and hit some higher levels. Due to current market conditions and low dollar/float of this stock, when this pops it can move a lot in a day or two. Over all not a bad fundamental play and should continue to have big swings for traders. JMHO

  • capntrps by capntrps Mar 3, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    This has been a good Q and year. The co has really built(rebuilt) value cash flow and financial flexibility. I expect this breakout will see some follow through with downside protection if the price slips. Mainly concerned about a macro breakdown. JMHO

  • Reply to

    Big drop in NAV per share from $6.28 to $5.74 Y-Y

    by donf22 Feb 25, 2015 2:34 PM
    capntrps capntrps Mar 5, 2015 2:38 PM Flag

    I believe that the primary cause of NAV drop would be depreciation. This should be $110-130mil/yr. CSG holds all RE on the books at purchase price then depreciates. Then most income is paid out in divs. I have not been through the 'books' to review everything, but this appears most likely. JMHO

  • capntrps by capntrps Mar 10, 2015 2:51 PM Flag

    I am expecting a 50% chance of approval for DMD or better. Putting that in context of the current share price and cash on the books, this stock has a very favorable risk profile. 50% downside if they do not get approval and multiples to the upside if they do. Having a drug with this level of expected sales would allow this co. a ton of flexibility to bring out some of their other technologies and or buy things raise capital, etc... Their is a pretty good track record of scientists behind this company, they may have a platform technology and you can buy them at a pretty decent price today. JMHO but this is one of the more compelling biotech values out there today, Due to the binary outcome in the near future it will determine which direction the investment goes.

  • Reply to

    SRPT

    by capntrps Mar 10, 2015 2:51 PM
    capntrps capntrps Mar 11, 2015 11:41 AM Flag

    I agree with most of this and would not be surprised by another delay, I doubt they would 'need' more capital, but they 'may' raise capital which would certainly hurt the potential upside valuation if they were to be revenue generating company. Hope for smooth sailing and this should have a much higher price within a year.

  • Reply to

    SRPT

    by capntrps Mar 10, 2015 2:51 PM
    capntrps capntrps Mar 11, 2015 12:35 PM Flag

    Why do you see a cap on price if they receive approval in the next six months.

  • capntrps by capntrps Mar 23, 2015 2:22 PM Flag

    My last post I said to buy in the $2's and sell in the $4's. Not certain if we will see that again in the near term, or if we will see higher highs. Higher highs may be a better bet at this time. JMHO

  • Reply to

    Catch a falling knife?

    by itsa1188 Mar 26, 2015 9:00 PM
    capntrps capntrps Mar 27, 2015 11:15 AM Flag

    I think that is the correct action and have also made 2x purchases a week ago and today. Not sure about the long term of this co. but have had success trading these low float stocks when I purchase them "low" and wait for a pop. Based on mkt cap this can easily pop 50% from these levels if there is good news reported.

  • capntrps by capntrps Mar 27, 2015 11:18 AM Flag

    I focked up based on my last post. I did not repurchase when this fell toward $3.50 and now I am chasing. I how that this is going to set higher lows and higher highs relative to the past trading range in the $2s to $4s. Hopin' for the best.

Z
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