You must excuse my saying that this type of volume has never happened with the stock before. Of course it did happen several years back when the stock had it 's huge run, but I think my general point is still valid.
This seems much more than just a pre earnings run up for a little followed micro cap.
This has traded 1.4 million shares in the last 3 market days on no public news.
A few months ago it was trading 30k to 50 k shares on an average day.
As far as I can tell this kind of volume has NEVER occurred without news before. As far as I can tell it has never occurred even with news either.
It looks to me like someone had been accumulating Gv for a few weeks. I had the feeling that someone had been trying to soak up as many shares as they could without overtly running up the price these last few weeks.
Today they came out into the open. No way of knowing if they finished out their position today or not.
It's a good sign for where the stock could be headed over the coming months.
We have nearly identical views on this years earnings then.
The ability to still be able to buy the stock at these levels is a great opportunity. the only thing stopping me from buying more is that I try to not put too much of my trading account into any one stock. I own another stock that I am up about 15 percent profit on. I think it might have a bit more upside so I'm still holding on to it, but I'm tempted to sell it and put the proceeds to work in GV. The other stock has a little more left to go up I think, but GV can easy go to 3x the current price.
Sine no one else seems willing to make a guess at 2016 earnings I'll give my estimates.
I'm saying $0.32
still 9 and a half month left to go in 2016 and I think GV can get to a 15 to 20 pe sometime before the year ends. Plenty of time to do that.
People often talk about what they see as "fair value" for a stock, but I think that there is no such thing as any one specific fair value for a stock. I think you have to think in terms of a general range.
With the turnaround at GV effectively proved at this point I see the stock settling into the 15 to 20 multiple on 2016 earnings at some point this year. That 15 to 20 pe isn't anything special either. It's just your run of the mill stock valuation.
Was thinking about buying in,but not after the Q report.
I know that earning 7 cents in the quarter sounds good but the share count is very low here and in absolute numbers the company only made $440k in the quarter. If they do actually lose the remaining GMCR biz that could easily turn the company to loses. This mean that no one is going to buy the stock based on earning or any expectation of growth.
The company does not pay a divy, so no income investor is going to buy the stock either.
That leaves only value investors to have any interest at all in the stock. Value investors are fine people, but they only buy at value prices.
This is the way I see it and it's the reason I'm going to pass on the stock. It's going to take a year or longer to lose all the remaining GMCR biz and then you really have to wait another 2 or 3 quarters to see how they manage after GMCR is gone. Until these things have come to pass the only people that will have any interest in the stock are the value players. Fine people, but they only buy cheap, and that leaves the stock dead for about 2 years or more.