Poor spelling on my part for web address I gave. Correct spelling is clinicaltrialsgov (and add the dot between the s and g. Hope that helps
Its public information available to all. Got my heads up on it from going back and reading the posts made on the ihub biotech values board from shortly after the CNDO pr. came out. Lot of smart biotech investors on that board and I try and look at the board in reference to what they have to say about biotech events.Go to clinicaltraialsgov website (Yahoo does not allow posting links so you will have to add a dot between the s.and g in this address. Search there for and you will find the CNDO autism trial and you can read yourself that it has 3 primary outcome measures that are not the efficacy measure that the pr talks about. I think I searched for something like Coronado + autism or something like that.
Found it. It took me awhile but I found what the market see.
It seems that the actual autism trial they are running has 3 primary endpoints and these endpoints ARE NOT the efficacy measures that the company talked about in the pr from Thursday evening
Sold some of my shares in the AH Thursday evening after the pr came out,. Then gladly dumped the last of my shares shortly after the Friday AM spike to $2.70. The Friday shares went @ $2.49
The stock traded badly Friday. Gaped up and spiked to $2.70 and then spent the rest of the day withering. Don't know what it is that the market thinks is wrong, but I've been trading and investing for nearly 25 years now and Friday mornings trading is the way a stock trades when the market thinks it over for a couple of hours and then says BS
I believe the stock will be back to the $1.78 where it closed the regular session on Thursday (before the after hours pr came out) in a week or two.
Thought that I would bump up my old post from where I went long in the $1.30's
Thought I would do so because I posted this evening about having sold 2500 of my shares to take some profit and got harangued by some clowns that think I am a short. So much Hostility on message boards these days. Getting to the point where you can't even make a simple post about taking a little profit without being atacked
Decided to sell off 2500 of my shares in the AH. Turned them lose @ $2.24
Still holding 5000, but decided to take some profit by selling 2500 shares.
Understand that I'm not knocking the great AH news, but I bought all my shares in the $1.30's not so long ago and taking some profits here was just to tempting. Absolutely not trying to give anyone else advise to buy or sell here. What anyone else does is their own business and no one else's.
I personally have decided to keep my remaining 5000 for now, and I have also decided to buy back the other 2500 that I just sold if the stock price dips back to $2.00
Well yes, top line data from the trial will be released well before the full data set for the trial is published somewhere. This is always the way it is done.
A better question is whether top line data for the primary phase of the trial will be released before they have top line data from the full completion of the trial, because top line data from the primary phase will absolutely be known by year end (if it isn't already known)
Hint trial goes like this: Each prospective subject is monitored to establish a baseline of their disease ( detectable lesions) They are then enrolled in the treatment (primary) phase of the trial if they still meet trial criteria after this baseline is established for them. This primary or treatment phase lasts 10 months and at the end of those 10 months of treatments each subject is monitored for 4 months in the secondary phase of the trial to see what happens to them after treatment stops (i.e. to see if they get worse after treatment stops)
Now we know that the primary phase of the trial completed in October, which is simply a way of saying that the last person enrolled in the trial completed treatment in October. We also know that enrollment in the trial was a gradual thing occurring over time. It is then very possible that this one person that completed treatment in Oct. is also the only one that has not yet completed the secondary trial phase.
The Hint 2 trial is basically over. Most of the people in it will have completed the full trial some time ago.
Now the question is will they release top line data from the treatment (primary) phase of the trial and tell us how the people in the trial were doing at 10 months of treatment in relation to their baselines, or will they wait till this last person who completed treatment in Oct. also complete the secondary phase in Feb. That's the question
Lots of people do indeed wait to buy a stock until after it has run up in price and end up with too high a cost basis.
I understand that those who bought earlier this year got hurt bad here, BUT I believe anyone buying now will be well rewarded in 2014.
Funny how often it works that way When you buy and what price you pay is often as - or more- important than what you buy.
I probably won't post here much more until we get 2013 over. Got my full position and I will just put this to bed for 2013.
This is a stock you buy today and tuck away for 2014
Hello turtle. I bought 3,100 more shares on Friday myself. I think I talked myself into after I composed my post and I just couldn't stop thinking about the wonderful opportunity for making money here.
I have been actively trading/investing for about 25 years now and I can tell you this kind of deal is something you seldom get a chance at. Situations like this rarely come around and if you don't take them you look back on things at some future point and you just kinda say " It was right there in front of me and I would have made out like a bandit if I had acted, BUT I WAS TO STUPID TO DO ANYTHING WHEN IT WAS RIGHT IN FRONT OF ME."
I wonder if we are the only 2 that realize the kind of money that can be made with CNDO right now
Yesterdays closing price was @ half the company's net cash per share AND furthermore the cash burn here is small enough that in a year from now the next cash per share will still be higher than the current stock price.
Now think about how the stock can move higher in the next twelve months. Management knows the position they are in (observe the personal changes made the other day). They know they are going to have to ward off things like activist investors, hedge funds, and buy out offers from other bios, because of the huge cash pile the company is sitting on. This should cause management to actively promote the stock every chance they get because if they don't get the stock price up (and soon) someone is going to try and make a move on the company and that means they lose their cushy jobs.
They also have some early stage stuff going on over the next twelve months and its not too hard to put a good spin on the generally ambiguous early stage stuff and management will actively be doing that sort of thing here because of the pressure they are now under. That combined with the huge cash per share, and the natural fluctuation that occurs in a stocks price over, time should allow this to get back into the low to upper $2's sometime in the next twelve months.
Low $2's is 75% up from here. Upper $2's is 100% up from here.
On the other hand, they might get some concrete positive results on some of there other things within the next twelve months. Then you are probably talking the stock going to $5 or better.
Graham was absolutely correct about the rewards that are to be had by buyings stocks at deep discounts to hard assets and there is no harder asset than cash.
Bought some shares in the $1.30's
Ben Graham would love this stock. How often does a company have a market cap that is half of it's net cash balance?
The company is hedge fund bait at the current price. Even at a 50 percent premium to the closing stock price, a hedge fund would be paying only about $65 million for the company and that is more than $20 million less than the companys net cash balance
I appreciate your comments, but I do not feel that my opinion of RDCM is excessively pessimistic.
I do not hold a position here so it took me a few days to get around to looking at the Q results in a little more detail, BUT having done so I find that there is substantial reason (at least as I see it) to be pessimistic here- at least as far as the current quarter is concerned.
Take note that in the Q results they only reported $1.7 million in deferred revenue and advances from customers at Q end. Striping out the $800k of revenue whose recognition was delayed a few days into the current Q and you have only $900k of deferred revenue and advances at the end of the 3rd Q.
Deferred revenues and customer advances tend to be an indication of how much "work in progress" a company has going on at a particular moment in time. $900k would tend to indicate to me that things were kinda slow at RDCM going into the current 4th Q.
For example check out how deferred revenues and customer advances were compared with forward Q revenues in each of the last 3 quarters at RDCM.
In the just published 3rd Q 2013 results, RDCM reported $4.8 million in revenues (or $5.6 million if you add back the $800k that slipped past the end of the 3rd Q by a few days) and this followed RDCM reporting deferred revenues and customer advances of $2.6 million at the end of the 2nd Q 2013.
For the 2nd Q of 2013 RDCM reported revenues of $5.44 million and this followed RDCM reporting $3.25 million in deferred revenues and customer advances at the end of the 1st Q of 2013.
For the 1st Q of 2013 RDCM reported $4.6 million in revenues and this followed RDCM reporting $2.1 million in deferred revenues and customer advances at the end of the 4th Q of 2012.
Now at the end of the just reported 3rd Q they have only $900k in deferred revenue and customer advances (after taking out the $800k in revenues that slipped a few days past the end of the quarter)and to me this is a warning sign for Q4
Could just close in the red today. Too many hot money day traders here. Those that bought near the high are already down 15% and if this edges lower the day traders that were looking to make a quick buck may make a run for the exit
About a week ago I was thinking about buying into this and holding through earnings.
Seeing the Q results this morning I am very happy that I did not. Revenues declined from the prior quarter and they went from a profit last quarter to a meaningful loss this quarter.
The main reason I did not buy was the way the stock was trading (very badly) heading into earning and it being a non US based microcap.
This will likely get hit pretty good today and be ground down into oblivion between now and the next Q report.
I got out of RVM awhile back with a minor loss that I have since recovered on a daytrade in UNXL.
I have kept in touch with how things were going with RVM just in case it looked like it might be a good idea to jump back in (depending on how the news went).
Came home today and saw the news. Sorry for those that held on after the Octagon report came out. That report was a clarion call to get out of the stock because it showed that the NPV of the troy mine was negative even if the D drive succeeded (which we now know it did not) and because it showed that management was not being completely open about the not so good aspects of the troy mine situation. The Octagon report should have been everyones wake up call to sell. As I said in my original post here, its worth taking a small loss to avoid the possibility of taking a much larger one somewhere down the road.
To put it briefly the company had previously been trying its drug in a clinical trial as a treatment for hep c when it was found that the drug had issues with harming the livers of people who took the drug in the trials. at that point the FDA put the drug on clinical hold. This is simply a way of saying that the FDA stopped the company from testing the drug any further and asked the company for information about the drug to see if the drug could be found safe enough to resume trying it as a treatment for hep c.
The company went on to supply the information to the FDA, but today the company said the FDA still does not see the drug as being safe enough to resuming testing it as a treatment for hep c and the FDA therefore left the clinical hold in place. This effectively means that the drug is finished
Anybody buying here with the hope of getting a bounce on Monday will likely be disappointed.
Everybody should be aware that institutions own about 90 percent of the outstanding stock here and many of them will want to get this turkey off their books before the quarter ends.
Unfortunately that happens to be Monday. The sell off on Monday is probably going to be far worse than what you are seeing in the AH now as many institutions will just dump the stock on the last chance they have before the quarter ends.
If you are looking to play this a bounce you better consider just how ugly things could get on Monday. $4 could look expensive come monday