That's all I've got to say. They knew that this would happen.......unless they're stupid. They're not stupid so I assume they want to buy back stock cheaper.
What I have an even bigger problem understanding is why Yahoo doesn't do anything about it. There seems to be no response to reporting a thread as abuse. There used to be a choice of "not related to the stock".
They must only be concerned about click count and not about quality of the information exchange process. That's also probably why they got rid of the notifications, reduced their click count / refresh counts.
Not only did he not ask a single question in the CC but he didn't even listen to it or read the transcript? This loser is incompetent or politically biased.
Oh! what a tangled web we weave
When first we practice to deceive!
-Walter Scott (1808)
I hear ya, It is difficult to catch everything in the CC audio, especially when you are listening live and can't skip back to replay yet. I like to read the transcript as soon as SA makes it available. Even better yet, read it while listening to the replay. Seeking Alpha made the transcript available that afternoon so go ahead and check it out. Reading everything in the 10Ks and 10Qs is mandatory too. The CFO and CEO by no means did a bad job, but they need to think ahead of the analysts negativity and spell things out a little more clearly so as to checkmate them before the game even begins.
Actually it is up around 2% vs -1.5% for the S&P500. Should make you feel a little better. CAB was -4.75%. Not sure what happened there, except maybe fears related to the overall demand Yr/Yr comps being soft in the coming months. Fortunately for SWHC their products are in much higher demand than reflected by Adj NICS Growth (overall demand) Yr/Yr and they are focusing in on upping production on the ones that they literally still can't make fast enough.
Keybanc analysts always seem to get cutesy with their lingo. The analyst was Brett something, standing in for Scott Hamann. Debney seemed to be annoyed by his use of the term "distributor appetites"......I know I was because it shows a lack of understanding that it is ultimately the end customer demand that drive the whole thing and it seemed like the analyst just wanted to make a tripe negative statement, when it was already stated that some models were still in short supply on retail shelves and that the distributors wanted to build up inventory so that they wouldn't get caught flat footed next time there is a surge. He was a dope and Debney seemed to be aware of it.
$41.6M was actually what Walther contributed to Revenue in ALL OF FY 2013, so there's no way $41.6M in revenue was lost in the first 2 qtrs of FY '14. This is according to the 10K, and the CFO also stated such in the CC.
The analysts are a joke. Usually analysts key in on margin, ignoring the bottom line, but they will focus in on just part of the equation that supports whatever position they want to push, ignoring the greater picture. I see this time and time again.
I will be willing to bet that losing the lower margin Walther contract will free up capital equipment assets that can now be devoted to higher margin products and will help the bottom line and their market share in the future. Investing is supposed to be forward looking right?
Ford to add jobs and plants in 2014 • 1:39 PM
Ford (F -0.4%) plans to add 5K new jobs next year in the U.S. as it plans for an increase in production.
The automaker says it will open three new manufacturing facilities in 2014 to help it launch a total of 23 new vehicles in global markets.
In November, Ford increased its market share in the U.S. while keeping a tighter reign on inventory than GM.
See my post below and the CC transcript for the answer to your 2nd question. Their "guess" was $15M to $20M in sales. Sometimes I think people don't read all the posts :-)
Cai Von Rumohr - Cowen and Company, LLC, Research Division
You mentioned a couple of disruptions, ERP disruption to shipping, the Thompson recall and your professional sales were down. Could you comment on the size of the impact of the first 2, the ERP shipping impact and the Thompson recall?
Jeffrey D. Buchanan - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer, Executive Vice President and Treasurer
Well, I think I would probably stand by the comments that we gave last time. Last time, we indicated the number of shipping days, and I think Andrea had asked me the question we -- if that could like fairly be -- construed to be $15 million to like $20 million. And it's a guess, but I think it's probably like the best guess we had. I mean, really, as James mentioned, the demand and the channel inventories have built and demand has softened obviously for things like modern sporting rifles. But that really is a more recent phenomenon that is occurring more in the September, October timeframe. And we were pretty much not shipping in August. So we clearly not only couldn't ship, but we missed revenue probably as a result of that so....
I'd like to know about the backlog details too.
PS: They also said in the CC that their wtd. avg fully diluted shares figures assumes that they don't buy back any more shares, but they have another $15M currently authorized for share buybacks. If they bought them all back at today's close that would be $15M / $12.60 per share = 1.19M shares. Adjusting the FY '14 wtd avg fully diluted shares by this amount gives 60.9M -1.19M = 59.7M shares
So adjusting further for this gives
FY '14 Rev Guidance adjusted for non-recurring items and $15M share buyback: $10.58 per share, +29.1% Yr/Yr
Hamann eat those numbers cause they don't lie.
Nice analysis puzzled.
I went and did the same thing for the FY '14 (Apr 30, 2014) Guidance of $610M to $620M vs $587.5M ($41.6M due to Walther) for FY '13 and wtd avg fully diluted shares of 60.9M for FY '14 vs 66.6M for FY '13 and I got:
FY '13: $8.20 per share
FY '14: $10.10 per share, +23.3% Yr/Yr
In the CC they said they estimate the non-recurring drag on Sales in FY'14 due to the ERP debacle and the Thompson recall to be $15M to $20M. Adjusting for these non-recurring items raises the FY '14 Rev and gives:
FY '14 Rev Guidance adjusted for non-recurring items: $10.39 per share, +26.7% Yr/Yr