This is a telling figure since the comp is to Q1 '13 where their sell through was limited to their unit production and they were running flat out. In Q1 '13 they managed a +12% Y/Y unit production in their attempt to fill demand during the peak of the surge from the Sandy Hook Elementary School aftermath.
Shows that they have been very successful so far at increasing production capacity.
Especially with an Adj NICS of -22%, but then they've been repeatedly beating the NICS:
FY '13 +18% sell thru vs +7% Adj. NICS, even with the Q1 '13 where they didn't have sufficient inventory to meet the huge demand for their products.
The CA law will be found to be unconstitutional. If you require technology to be implemented which is not yet in existence in a workable form and/or is entirely not market feasible, you are effectively violating the 2nd Amendment. It is not enough for there to be a patent issued, all kinds of patents are issued without the idea being feasible.
When looking at the closing prices at the market closing dates of earnings announcements, since Obama initial election, the average P/E has been 13.5. The minimum was 8.0 and the maximum was 22.4. We are now getting close to that 8.0 minimum which occurred on Q3 and Q4 2009 earnings releases, which were on 10/28/09 and 2/24/10. Bear in mind when Obama was initially elected and when he was re-elected. The next thing to look at is when they bought back shares in the past and at what price, to come up with an estimate of what the P/E was at those times.
Sometime during week ending 12/31/09 RGR traded as low as $8.96, which would've represented a P/E of 6.35 for that brief time. This was bracketed by those two earnings dates I gave above with the 8.0 P/E's (10/28/09 and 2/24/10). This has certainly been one helluva volatile stock.
On 5/1/12, RGR traded as high as $58.42, which would've represented a peak P/E of 23.75 (since 2/24/09). The current P/E of the S&P500 is 19.06 vs RGR 10.8, the historical low was 5.31 on Dec 1917, historical high was 123.79 on May 2009, and the mean was 15.51 and median 14.55.
"Persons who own firearms for self-defense (the core of the Second Amendment, according to Heller) would be especially wary, since a gun which works 99.5% of the time is not sufficiently reliable for self-defense. Most people who have experience with fingerprint readers, magnetic key cards, etc., know that these devices are often convenient, but they are not reliable enough to bet one’s life on them. This is one reason why there has been zero adoption of personalized guns by law enforcement, even though the initial impetus for personalized gun research was for law enforcement use. Indeed, the New Jersey law exempts law enforcement; the exemption is an admission that personalized guns are insufficiently reliable for lawful defense of self and others. A recent article on the website of American Rifleman (a NRA member publication) details some potential problems with hacking or jamming of computer-dependent guns."
1) Ruger's sales were up 9% even though Adj NICS were down -22%
2) Ruger doesn't even sell ammunition
3) Smartguns are not feasible, as proven by the fact that law enforcement wants nothing to do with them.
You think? Quite the opposite lol. I do think that he probably only cares about the long term investors, not the weak handed daytraders that freak out if they can't make their quick buck. His investors letter may have been with an angle of trying to get the stock to pull back to historically low P/Es to make their buybacks in best interest of long term holders. Only they know the bigger picture.
vkncaa - you have been very pessimistic on this board. Did your pessimism correctly predict that RGR would have a +13% EBITDA growth for Q1'14, which is comping to the most difficult surge quarter Q1'13? No I didn't think so.
He is defending his company. Stand by for shock and awe buyback. Just waiting for his ttm P/E trigger point to be hit. I don't believe he will let the fact that market is at all time highs stop him. This stock has a history of short term trading trends in opposition to market moves, especially in low volume periods. SWHC FQ4 (Apr) earnings in about 10 trading days will also serve as a catalyst.
YoY revenue growth is not a relevant factor in this case where there was a tidal wave surge to compare to. You have to smooth the data out to determine if the underlying growth trend is still intact. We saw this after Obama was first elected. There were plenty of chicken littles such as yourself back then too.
By the way, this is a company specific message board.
So if you compare Nov '13 thru May '14 to Nov '11 thru May '12 it still gives a +3.2% annualized growth for Adj. NICS, despite the fact that lots of sales were undoubtedly pulled from the future by the tidal wave surge of Nov '12 thru Mar '13 which was a combination of Obama reelection and Sandy Hook Elementary School event. Food and Beverage industry stocks with MUCH higher P/E's would kill for that annualized growth, and Ruger is taking market share, as proven by their sell through numbers from distributors to retailers repeatedly exceeding the Adj NICS by a respectable amount.
gilgold2 - that is in fact one of the objections law enforcement and military has to smart guns. The same would apply to a wife who needs to use her husband's gun to protect her family from a madman intruder when her husband is away. But again, you don't want anything which uses potentially glitchy technologies and requires a rechargeable power source on a piece of equipment that has to function in a life and death emergency situation. Do they have batteries on fire extinguishers?
PS: the basic premise of your argument is flawed anyway, since smart gun technologies would only decrease reliability further, since the more complicated a design the less reliable it is (KISS - keep it simple stupid). In other words, it is additive.
I doubt that he ever makes note of his past record of being wrong in any of his "investors" notes.
It's true of all devices......the more complicated they are made, the less reliable they are, but to think you will be able to put a number on it without a market feasible manufactured product in hand to test is silly. To think you will be able to project statistics based upon those guesses is bordering on ludicrous. You also forgot about the uncertainty of not knowing whether or not the battery will have enough charge for the weapon to function should an emergency arise. That will come down to a matter of human discipline of checking or charging or replacing the battery on a regular basis and we all know how reliable that is. Sometimes a little common sense is all that is needed.
What state will be your guinea pig, especially when no manufacturer has come up with one that is market feasible (think price/cost)? Anyway, there are 3 kinds of lies: Lies, Damn lies, and statistics.
PS: what type of gun will the criminals use?
We will have to see how stubborn Fifer will be in sticking to his buy triggers for P/E and other valuation metrics. Only he knows what numbers he is waiting for but it is easy to determine what those numbers were when he last bought back shares. I have done that but hesitate to post it because I wouldn't want it to become a self fulfilling prophesy that the stock has to come down to those levels.
There was a report on Benzinga of chatter about a negative Nielsen report. I was unable to find any confirmation of this anywhere, but I also don't have access to the Nielsens data.
Dividend is 40% of earnings. Since earnings in the financial world are analyzed on a year/year basis you must analyze the dividend that way also. If you do you will find is up y/y. You are making the mistake of looking at it mo/mo.