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iShares TIPS Bond Message Board

captainwho2 63 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 18, 2014 9:28 AM Member since: Aug 6, 2011
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  • This is a telling figure since the comp is to Q1 '13 where their sell through was limited to their unit production and they were running flat out. In Q1 '13 they managed a +12% Y/Y unit production in their attempt to fill demand during the peak of the surge from the Sandy Hook Elementary School aftermath.

    Shows that they have been very successful so far at increasing production capacity.

  • captainwho2 captainwho2 May 22, 2014 11:39 PM Flag

    Especially with an Adj NICS of -22%, but then they've been repeatedly beating the NICS:

    FY '13 +18% sell thru vs +7% Adj. NICS, even with the Q1 '13 where they didn't have sufficient inventory to meet the huge demand for their products.

  • Reply to

    RGR's tanking for no apparent reason

    by landson4feet May 20, 2014 11:27 AM
    captainwho2 captainwho2 May 28, 2014 9:56 AM Flag

    The CA law will be found to be unconstitutional. If you require technology to be implemented which is not yet in existence in a workable form and/or is entirely not market feasible, you are effectively violating the 2nd Amendment. It is not enough for there to be a patent issued, all kinds of patents are issued without the idea being feasible.

  • When looking at the closing prices at the market closing dates of earnings announcements, since Obama initial election, the average P/E has been 13.5. The minimum was 8.0 and the maximum was 22.4. We are now getting close to that 8.0 minimum which occurred on Q3 and Q4 2009 earnings releases, which were on 10/28/09 and 2/24/10. Bear in mind when Obama was initially elected and when he was re-elected. The next thing to look at is when they bought back shares in the past and at what price, to come up with an estimate of what the P/E was at those times.

  • captainwho2 captainwho2 May 28, 2014 5:47 PM Flag

    Sometime during week ending 12/31/09 RGR traded as low as $8.96, which would've represented a P/E of 6.35 for that brief time. This was bracketed by those two earnings dates I gave above with the 8.0 P/E's (10/28/09 and 2/24/10). This has certainly been one helluva volatile stock.

  • captainwho2 captainwho2 May 28, 2014 6:08 PM Flag

    On 5/1/12, RGR traded as high as $58.42, which would've represented a peak P/E of 23.75 (since 2/24/09). The current P/E of the S&P500 is 19.06 vs RGR 10.8, the historical low was 5.31 on Dec 1917, historical high was 123.79 on May 2009, and the mean was 15.51 and median 14.55.

  • Reply to

    RGR's tanking for no apparent reason

    by landson4feet May 20, 2014 11:27 AM
    captainwho2 captainwho2 May 29, 2014 6:38 AM Flag

    gilgold2 -

    "Persons who own firearms for self-defense (the core of the Second Amendment, according to Heller) would be especially wary, since a gun which works 99.5% of the time is not sufficiently reliable for self-defense. Most people who have experience with fingerprint readers, magnetic key cards, etc., know that these devices are often convenient, but they are not reliable enough to bet one’s life on them. This is one reason why there has been zero adoption of personalized guns by law enforcement, even though the initial impetus for personalized gun research was for law enforcement use. Indeed, the New Jersey law exempts law enforcement; the exemption is an admission that personalized guns are insufficiently reliable for lawful defense of self and others. A recent article on the website of American Rifleman (a NRA member publication) details some potential problems with hacking or jamming of computer-dependent guns."

  • Reply to

    Are we missing something?

    by ferdinandoc May 29, 2014 6:14 AM
    captainwho2 captainwho2 May 29, 2014 6:43 AM Flag

    1) Ruger's sales were up 9% even though Adj NICS were down -22%
    2) Ruger doesn't even sell ammunition
    3) Smartguns are not feasible, as proven by the fact that law enforcement wants nothing to do with them.

  • captainwho2 captainwho2 May 29, 2014 11:10 AM Flag

    You think? Quite the opposite lol. I do think that he probably only cares about the long term investors, not the weak handed daytraders that freak out if they can't make their quick buck. His investors letter may have been with an angle of trying to get the stock to pull back to historically low P/Es to make their buybacks in best interest of long term holders. Only they know the bigger picture.

  • Reply to

    Time for a private equity deal

    by sheamanski May 28, 2014 11:42 PM
    captainwho2 captainwho2 May 31, 2014 4:48 AM Flag

    vkncaa - you have been very pessimistic on this board. Did your pessimism correctly predict that RGR would have a +13% EBITDA growth for Q1'14, which is comping to the most difficult surge quarter Q1'13? No I didn't think so.

  • Reply to

    stand by what i sucks

    by joehook999 May 30, 2014 3:38 PM
    captainwho2 captainwho2 May 31, 2014 5:40 AM Flag

    He is defending his company. Stand by for shock and awe buyback. Just waiting for his ttm P/E trigger point to be hit. I don't believe he will let the fact that market is at all time highs stop him. This stock has a history of short term trading trends in opposition to market moves, especially in low volume periods. SWHC FQ4 (Apr) earnings in about 10 trading days will also serve as a catalyst.

  • Reply to

    Time for a private equity deal

    by sheamanski May 28, 2014 11:42 PM
    captainwho2 captainwho2 May 31, 2014 9:48 AM Flag

    YoY revenue growth is not a relevant factor in this case where there was a tidal wave surge to compare to. You have to smooth the data out to determine if the underlying growth trend is still intact. We saw this after Obama was first elected. There were plenty of chicken littles such as yourself back then too.

    By the way, this is a company specific message board.

  • captainwho2 captainwho2 Jun 2, 2014 7:39 PM Flag

    So if you compare Nov '13 thru May '14 to Nov '11 thru May '12 it still gives a +3.2% annualized growth for Adj. NICS, despite the fact that lots of sales were undoubtedly pulled from the future by the tidal wave surge of Nov '12 thru Mar '13 which was a combination of Obama reelection and Sandy Hook Elementary School event. Food and Beverage industry stocks with MUCH higher P/E's would kill for that annualized growth, and Ruger is taking market share, as proven by their sell through numbers from distributors to retailers repeatedly exceeding the Adj NICS by a respectable amount.

  • Reply to

    personal firearm identity-reliability

    by gilgold2 Jun 2, 2014 10:03 PM
    captainwho2 captainwho2 Jun 3, 2014 7:14 AM Flag

    gilgold2 - that is in fact one of the objections law enforcement and military has to smart guns. The same would apply to a wife who needs to use her husband's gun to protect her family from a madman intruder when her husband is away. But again, you don't want anything which uses potentially glitchy technologies and requires a rechargeable power source on a piece of equipment that has to function in a life and death emergency situation. Do they have batteries on fire extinguishers?

  • Reply to

    personal firearm identity-reliability

    by gilgold2 Jun 2, 2014 10:03 PM
    captainwho2 captainwho2 Jun 3, 2014 7:38 AM Flag

    PS: the basic premise of your argument is flawed anyway, since smart gun technologies would only decrease reliability further, since the more complicated a design the less reliable it is (KISS - keep it simple stupid). In other words, it is additive.

  • captainwho2 captainwho2 Jun 3, 2014 12:25 PM Flag

    I doubt that he ever makes note of his past record of being wrong in any of his "investors" notes.

  • Reply to

    personal firearm identity-reliability

    by gilgold2 Jun 2, 2014 10:03 PM
    captainwho2 captainwho2 Jun 5, 2014 6:07 AM Flag

    It's true of all devices......the more complicated they are made, the less reliable they are, but to think you will be able to put a number on it without a market feasible manufactured product in hand to test is silly. To think you will be able to project statistics based upon those guesses is bordering on ludicrous. You also forgot about the uncertainty of not knowing whether or not the battery will have enough charge for the weapon to function should an emergency arise. That will come down to a matter of human discipline of checking or charging or replacing the battery on a regular basis and we all know how reliable that is. Sometimes a little common sense is all that is needed.

    What state will be your guinea pig, especially when no manufacturer has come up with one that is market feasible (think price/cost)? Anyway, there are 3 kinds of lies: Lies, Damn lies, and statistics.

    PS: what type of gun will the criminals use?

  • Reply to

    Shares repurchase/ 25 million

    by n1funman Jun 4, 2014 6:51 PM
    captainwho2 captainwho2 Jun 5, 2014 6:17 AM Flag

    We will have to see how stubborn Fifer will be in sticking to his buy triggers for P/E and other valuation metrics. Only he knows what numbers he is waiting for but it is easy to determine what those numbers were when he last bought back shares. I have done that but hesitate to post it because I wouldn't want it to become a self fulfilling prophesy that the stock has to come down to those levels.

  • Reply to

    Lots of Action Without Any Apparent News

    by freddywaters Jun 13, 2014 12:28 PM
    captainwho2 captainwho2 Jun 13, 2014 7:17 PM Flag

    There was a report on Benzinga of chatter about a negative Nielsen report. I was unable to find any confirmation of this anywhere, but I also don't have access to the Nielsens data.

  • Reply to

    Interested in buying RGR

    by fishingman200 Jun 13, 2014 6:27 PM
    captainwho2 captainwho2 Jun 13, 2014 7:25 PM Flag

    Dividend is 40% of earnings. Since earnings in the financial world are analyzed on a year/year basis you must analyze the dividend that way also. If you do you will find is up y/y. You are making the mistake of looking at it mo/mo.

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