See my post below and the CC transcript for the answer to your 2nd question. Their "guess" was $15M to $20M in sales. Sometimes I think people don't read all the posts :-)
Cai Von Rumohr - Cowen and Company, LLC, Research Division
You mentioned a couple of disruptions, ERP disruption to shipping, the Thompson recall and your professional sales were down. Could you comment on the size of the impact of the first 2, the ERP shipping impact and the Thompson recall?
Jeffrey D. Buchanan - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer, Executive Vice President and Treasurer
Well, I think I would probably stand by the comments that we gave last time. Last time, we indicated the number of shipping days, and I think Andrea had asked me the question we -- if that could like fairly be -- construed to be $15 million to like $20 million. And it's a guess, but I think it's probably like the best guess we had. I mean, really, as James mentioned, the demand and the channel inventories have built and demand has softened obviously for things like modern sporting rifles. But that really is a more recent phenomenon that is occurring more in the September, October timeframe. And we were pretty much not shipping in August. So we clearly not only couldn't ship, but we missed revenue probably as a result of that so....
I'd like to know about the backlog details too.
PS: They also said in the CC that their wtd. avg fully diluted shares figures assumes that they don't buy back any more shares, but they have another $15M currently authorized for share buybacks. If they bought them all back at today's close that would be $15M / $12.60 per share = 1.19M shares. Adjusting the FY '14 wtd avg fully diluted shares by this amount gives 60.9M -1.19M = 59.7M shares
So adjusting further for this gives
FY '14 Rev Guidance adjusted for non-recurring items and $15M share buyback: $10.58 per share, +29.1% Yr/Yr
Hamann eat those numbers cause they don't lie.
Nice analysis puzzled.
I went and did the same thing for the FY '14 (Apr 30, 2014) Guidance of $610M to $620M vs $587.5M ($41.6M due to Walther) for FY '13 and wtd avg fully diluted shares of 60.9M for FY '14 vs 66.6M for FY '13 and I got:
FY '13: $8.20 per share
FY '14: $10.10 per share, +23.3% Yr/Yr
In the CC they said they estimate the non-recurring drag on Sales in FY'14 due to the ERP debacle and the Thompson recall to be $15M to $20M. Adjusting for these non-recurring items raises the FY '14 Rev and gives:
FY '14 Rev Guidance adjusted for non-recurring items: $10.39 per share, +26.7% Yr/Yr
I don't mind talking technicals sometimes, but I doubt many people here are interested. If you must know I made two successful scalps on the long side.
Maybe you should go to a daytrading chatroom or something. Most people here consider being right on fundamentals to be key.
Ignoring continuing operations adjustment is just plain despicable. Stuff like this makes me think the Sandy Hook massacre could have been a hoax.
I got it now. You have to copy the article headline to your clipboard, then go to google news site and search on the title. It comes up in its entirety that way.
It says in their quarterly report:
"Income from continuing operations for the second quarter was $17.1 million, or $0.28 per diluted share, compared with $16.4 million, or $0.24 per diluted share, for the second quarter last year."
The AP article is misreporting, perhaps by not comparing apples with apples, ie. "continuing operations". Perhaps they are including the Walther earnings in there, without showing the proper adjustment for continuing operations.
Bad liberal motivated Presstitute Journalism.
I can't even load the WSJ article. The server must be overloaded with people curious to see how they managed to put a negative slant on this.
The question was asked in the CC and they had the chance to say that they thought it prudent to be conservative or something to that effect but they did not. I also didn't hear any *wink* (lol).
scratch the "last yrs". Bad editing on my part. I posted a whole thread on the SWHC board about this and yahoo wished it into the cornfield on me.
There is already an AP article out that claims they reported a 20% loss of Net Income vs the +4.3% stated in the CC and that last yrs EPS growth was -9.7% vs the +16.7% stated in CC.
I hope he didn't lock himself in his precious metals safe with a note on his shirt, like I suggested once. I would actually feel "kinda" bad about that.
Yeah a bit disappointed that they only reiterated their full year (April) guidance despite beating their own guidance this quarter, and guiding above consensus next quarter. It will be the c*h*i*n*k in the armor that the short writers will go after. Nevertheless, they guided +4.7% Rev Growth and +8.6% EPS Growth for the full year
Nice synopsis. It certainly won't hurt Ruger if MSRs are soft since they never sold many compared to Smith. As far as the softness in the other rifles goes, I wonder if the Ruger American Rifle is taking share from Smith. I think it's quite likely. The Keybanc stand in for our favorite ANALyst Scott Hamann got appropriately dissed for trying to make them reiterate part of the prepared statement that everybody else heard just fine the first go around. He was just trying to highlight the negative, as usual for Keybanc.