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The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. Message Board

captainwho2 44 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 17, 2014 5:10 PM Member since: Aug 6, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Now below $30 in after hours trading...

    by beefstu57 Jul 17, 2014 4:27 PM
    captainwho2 captainwho2 Jul 17, 2014 5:10 PM Flag

    Net sales (including recently acquired brands) +26.1%
    Base business net sales +2.8%
    Adjusted net income +1.4%
    Adj EBITDA +8.6%
    Adj dil. EPS +0% (flat)

    Hardly "blow away" numbers, but not terrible considering their significant acquisition expenses.

    Lowered Guidance of Adj dil EPS by 3.1% to 1.57 at the midpoint would represent -9.8% y/y.....not good.

    The revenue growth is great but how long will it take for the acquisitions to be accretive to EPS so that growth can resume?

    It's a little hard for me to believe that they will average 0.43 Adj. EPS per qtr in the second half, when they only achieved 0.38 and 0.33 in the first two quarters.

    $30 per share will represent a +4.53% yield, assuming they don't increase the divvy again. The stock needs to get down to $27.20 for a +5% yield.

  • captainwho2 captainwho2 Jul 8, 2014 4:00 AM Flag

    @jrhauri....."RGR needs demand products. If they can produce, they will also exceed NICS numbers and gain market share like SWHC."

    LOL, you make it sound like they haven't been. In their most recently reported qtr (Q1 '14): est unit sell thru +10% y/y, unit prod +19% y/y, Adj NICS -22% y/y

  • captainwho2 captainwho2 Jun 27, 2014 6:42 AM Flag

    If they are still working on fulfilling their backlog and getting distributor inventories up even though retail demand is declining, it is sell through that will suffer, not revenue. It is conceivable that another demand surge could occur due to some political move before O leaves office which would make that inventory build and production expansion a very wise move. Unfortunately you cannot foretell the future any better than I.

  • captainwho2 captainwho2 Jun 26, 2014 10:28 PM Flag

    You're being an idiot. Every investor's meeting they are awarded more shares as part of their executive compensation. For god's sake get a hobby and cease your rantings here until you come up with something worthwhile. You may not be datbe but you have the same negative fervor.

  • Reply to

    Where did all the dumb sheep go ?

    by kashkow57 Jun 24, 2014 1:33 PM
    captainwho2 captainwho2 Jun 25, 2014 11:54 AM Flag

    An armed populace is STILL a deterrent to a would be tyrannical government IMHO.

  • Reply to

    Free cash flow....

    by libertee4all Jun 24, 2014 10:38 AM
    captainwho2 captainwho2 Jun 25, 2014 8:26 AM Flag

    Why did you change your screen name from illlorac libertee4all? Are you being paid to post and feel you needed to be more convincing with a new name?

  • Reply to

    personal firearm identity-reliability

    by gilgold2 Jun 2, 2014 10:03 PM
    captainwho2 captainwho2 Jun 18, 2014 11:22 AM Flag

    I think my point was clear enough......... to most. Smoke alarms have "backup" batteries but are best hard wired into the house's electrical system. Why do you think that is? We cannot assess how glitchy a product is without having that product in hand to test. Taking a product from a pure mechanical mechanism to a combined solid state electronics / mechanical product is bound to be potentially less reliable. Common sense. Whether or not the cost to benefit ratio is worth it, is very hard to judge, especially without a product in hand. If you still do not get my point then I can't help you. What might be acceptable cost and added complexity for a pure target shooter vs a home defense weapon are two different things.

  • Reply to

    Interested in buying RGR

    by fishingman200 Jun 13, 2014 6:27 PM
    captainwho2 captainwho2 Jun 13, 2014 7:25 PM Flag

    Dividend is 40% of earnings. Since earnings in the financial world are analyzed on a year/year basis you must analyze the dividend that way also. If you do you will find is up y/y. You are making the mistake of looking at it mo/mo.

  • Reply to

    Lots of Action Without Any Apparent News

    by freddywaters Jun 13, 2014 12:28 PM
    captainwho2 captainwho2 Jun 13, 2014 7:17 PM Flag

    There was a report on Benzinga of chatter about a negative Nielsen report. I was unable to find any confirmation of this anywhere, but I also don't have access to the Nielsens data.

  • Reply to

    Shares repurchase/ 25 million

    by n1funman Jun 4, 2014 6:51 PM
    captainwho2 captainwho2 Jun 5, 2014 6:17 AM Flag

    We will have to see how stubborn Fifer will be in sticking to his buy triggers for P/E and other valuation metrics. Only he knows what numbers he is waiting for but it is easy to determine what those numbers were when he last bought back shares. I have done that but hesitate to post it because I wouldn't want it to become a self fulfilling prophesy that the stock has to come down to those levels.

  • Reply to

    personal firearm identity-reliability

    by gilgold2 Jun 2, 2014 10:03 PM
    captainwho2 captainwho2 Jun 5, 2014 6:07 AM Flag

    It's true of all devices......the more complicated they are made, the less reliable they are, but to think you will be able to put a number on it without a market feasible manufactured product in hand to test is silly. To think you will be able to project statistics based upon those guesses is bordering on ludicrous. You also forgot about the uncertainty of not knowing whether or not the battery will have enough charge for the weapon to function should an emergency arise. That will come down to a matter of human discipline of checking or charging or replacing the battery on a regular basis and we all know how reliable that is. Sometimes a little common sense is all that is needed.

    What state will be your guinea pig, especially when no manufacturer has come up with one that is market feasible (think price/cost)? Anyway, there are 3 kinds of lies: Lies, Damn lies, and statistics.

    PS: what type of gun will the criminals use?

  • captainwho2 captainwho2 Jun 3, 2014 12:25 PM Flag

    I doubt that he ever makes note of his past record of being wrong in any of his "investors" notes.

  • Reply to

    personal firearm identity-reliability

    by gilgold2 Jun 2, 2014 10:03 PM
    captainwho2 captainwho2 Jun 3, 2014 7:38 AM Flag

    PS: the basic premise of your argument is flawed anyway, since smart gun technologies would only decrease reliability further, since the more complicated a design the less reliable it is (KISS - keep it simple stupid). In other words, it is additive.

  • Reply to

    personal firearm identity-reliability

    by gilgold2 Jun 2, 2014 10:03 PM
    captainwho2 captainwho2 Jun 3, 2014 7:14 AM Flag

    gilgold2 - that is in fact one of the objections law enforcement and military has to smart guns. The same would apply to a wife who needs to use her husband's gun to protect her family from a madman intruder when her husband is away. But again, you don't want anything which uses potentially glitchy technologies and requires a rechargeable power source on a piece of equipment that has to function in a life and death emergency situation. Do they have batteries on fire extinguishers?

  • captainwho2 captainwho2 Jun 2, 2014 7:39 PM Flag

    So if you compare Nov '13 thru May '14 to Nov '11 thru May '12 it still gives a +3.2% annualized growth for Adj. NICS, despite the fact that lots of sales were undoubtedly pulled from the future by the tidal wave surge of Nov '12 thru Mar '13 which was a combination of Obama reelection and Sandy Hook Elementary School event. Food and Beverage industry stocks with MUCH higher P/E's would kill for that annualized growth, and Ruger is taking market share, as proven by their sell through numbers from distributors to retailers repeatedly exceeding the Adj NICS by a respectable amount.

  • Reply to

    Time for a private equity deal

    by sheamanski May 28, 2014 11:42 PM
    captainwho2 captainwho2 May 31, 2014 9:48 AM Flag

    YoY revenue growth is not a relevant factor in this case where there was a tidal wave surge to compare to. You have to smooth the data out to determine if the underlying growth trend is still intact. We saw this after Obama was first elected. There were plenty of chicken littles such as yourself back then too.

    By the way, this is a company specific message board.

  • Reply to

    stand by what i sucks

    by joehook999 May 30, 2014 3:38 PM
    captainwho2 captainwho2 May 31, 2014 5:40 AM Flag

    He is defending his company. Stand by for shock and awe buyback. Just waiting for his ttm P/E trigger point to be hit. I don't believe he will let the fact that market is at all time highs stop him. This stock has a history of short term trading trends in opposition to market moves, especially in low volume periods. SWHC FQ4 (Apr) earnings in about 10 trading days will also serve as a catalyst.

  • Reply to

    Time for a private equity deal

    by sheamanski May 28, 2014 11:42 PM
    captainwho2 captainwho2 May 31, 2014 4:48 AM Flag

    vkncaa - you have been very pessimistic on this board. Did your pessimism correctly predict that RGR would have a +13% EBITDA growth for Q1'14, which is comping to the most difficult surge quarter Q1'13? No I didn't think so.

  • captainwho2 captainwho2 May 29, 2014 11:10 AM Flag

    You think? Quite the opposite lol. I do think that he probably only cares about the long term investors, not the weak handed daytraders that freak out if they can't make their quick buck. His investors letter may have been with an angle of trying to get the stock to pull back to historically low P/Es to make their buybacks in best interest of long term holders. Only they know the bigger picture.

  • Reply to

    Are we missing something?

    by ferdinandoc May 29, 2014 6:14 AM
    captainwho2 captainwho2 May 29, 2014 6:43 AM Flag

    1) Ruger's sales were up 9% even though Adj NICS were down -22%
    2) Ruger doesn't even sell ammunition
    3) Smartguns are not feasible, as proven by the fact that law enforcement wants nothing to do with them.

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