Went parabolic on 5/11, but 25% retracement. After next catalyst (PDUFA) should have another parabolic move, (followed by another retracement).
Upcoming news/catalysts should cause more parabolic moves:
2013 earnings report
With such a safe and well tolerated medication that at least a billion across the globe will want to take, Mike Murphy's projection seems inadequate.
Yes, I believe that ARNA will do better than AAPL, FB, GOOG or any other stock on the exchange for the foreseeable future.
If you don't yet own ARNA, you will miss out on the biggest financial return of your life.
There is only a finite amount of time before June 27 PDUFA.
There could be a surprise early approval.
Unlikely for any buyout news prior to full FDA approval.
Each day closer to June 27 also means less chatter about REMS.
The PPS should reflect what happened during the month before adcomm.
2 weeks before adcomm, the price spiked >20% and continued it's upward trajectory before going parabolic.
Barcharts rates this 100% long term buy, 100% medium buy and 80% short term buy.
Do not wait too long before buying. You have at most a couple of weeks. What's to say that shares won't start a steady climb to PDUFA starting on Monday.
According to the panelists and FDA itself at the adcomm, it is unfair to change the game plan for ARNA mid course. I really feel that FDA will approve LORQ early without any announcement for a required CVOT. However to settle any potential legal liability post market, ARNA will probably do their own. They are aware that KAul et al will not rest after FDA approval and will beat the drum of war against LORQ inciting negative media about LORQ to the benefit of Qnexa.
It's a high stakes game that ARNA MUST prepare for. Yes, I also agree that some of the funds raised by the SPO will be used for this purpose. I wonder if anyone with access can verify this with the company.
The future of FB is brighter than any other company. With a 28 year old Jewish Harvard man and a brilliant Chinese American Harvard doctor at his side, there will be no stopping them. May G_d bless them and their endeavors and may FB be His instrument to bring justice and peace to this world.
I followed the ad comm via a couple of live blogs. It seemed that all of the cardiologists on the panel, except for that fraud, Kaul had zero concern for valvulopathy. Kaul, a poor excuse for a physician, swayed a couple of panelist to offer EKG as a way to handicap Lorq. These same panelist had difficulty distinguishing the clinical indication for EKG vs ECHO. They also had no idea how prevalent valvulopathy is in the general population at large. If they read any of ARNA's original publications in NEJM, OBesity Journal, they would have seen that.
Not only will the FDA disregard these off the cuff suggestion with no scientific or empiric evidence, they will allow LORQ to be prescribed widely and freely by all physician as a bullet to combat the scourge of obesity sweeping across this nation and world.
Either you are in or out. We are at the cusp of medical history and breakthrough. Get of the way or be run over (especially if you are shorting).
FB lost 15% from $45. It might not go back to $45 for months. By then it will be too late to get ARNA for $5.50 since PDUFA is on 6/27 and PPS will go up much higher with full FDA approval. It seems prudent to sell most FB and return to ARNA
If this ever happens, I will buy 20K more shares. And if it goes to 4.5, I will buy another 40K shares.
You misunderstood my intentions here. I am currently long 65K ARNA. I am willing to keep accumulating, exponentially if PPS drops. However, if PPS spikes up I will be that much more wealthy and happier. Just saying that whether the PPS goes up or down, its a win win situation. That is Cramer's Pyramid Plan.
Let's just assume that both QNEXA and LORQ are approved by the FDA and come on the market around the same time.
If you are a physician, which would you prescribe 1st for your patient? Obviously, almost no physician would start both drugs for the patient at the same time.
I would chose Lorq 1st since it's mechanism of action is best understood and it has the least side effect profile. I think 99% of my colleagues will agree with me on this.
When we prescribe a chronic medication, such as for diabetes, hypertension, cholesterol, we almost never prescribe the most powerful. Instead, we chose the safest and best tolerated.
LORQ does not cause any birth defect. This will be a particular concern for the majority of our patients who are obese and of child bearing age. No physician wants to cause a bad outcome by having his/her patient give birth to a child with birth defects. This will be interpreted as malpractice by most docs. Likewise, physicians are very comfortable handling patients with valvulopathy. This is because almost all of our patients already have some. Just ask how many doctors see patients with mitral regurgitation, aortic regurgitation, aortic stenosis. Almost every other ECHO that is done shows some sort of valvulopathy in clinical practice.
What we are not comfortable accepting or facing are the consequences of birth defects, and memory problems. I think most of the non-clinicians on this message board have missed the boat when it comes to the side effect profile for LORQ. The valvulopathy is a NON issue. The only person who made it an issue was Dr. Kaul, obviously a shill for VVUS and QNEXA.
1. I predict 100% chance of approval for LORQ, if not early approval.
2. I predict 0% chance of REMS
3. I predict 100% of EMA approval on time without delay.
4. I predict 99% of docs will prescribe LORQ first.
5. I predict over 90% market domination by LORQ vs QNEXA
I cannot predict the PPS of ARNA.
Regardless of your views regarding where the company's stock is headed, you have to have compassion for your fellow humans suffering from the worst pandemic of this century. It is not poverty, malaria, war, malnutrition, religious persecution, racism, sexism, cancer, alcoholism, cigarettes, methamphetamines, heroin, cocaine, communism, capitalism, Obama, Romney, etc. it is the increasing BMI that is plaguing this nation and spreading all over the world.
Almost every patient I see in the hospital started out with obesity as their first problem. Then diabetes follows, hypertension, atherosclerosis, renal failure, heart failure, amputations, dialysis, respiratory failure, myocardial infarction, sepsis, stroke, and death. You would think the hospital beds are filled with people dying from cancer or damaged lungs from smoking. Wrong, the hospitals are filled to capacity with obese people.
Everyday, young obese patients end up on life support machines, unable to breath on their own, let along move or walk, their hearts, kidneys, lungs collapsing under the extreme weight. Even some lucky one's who get bariatric surgery only live a little longer after loosing 100 pounds, because it really is too late.
Wake up America. Arena is truly a force for good in this struggle against a scourge of mankind.
Knowing all this, do you still have the conscience to short? You will be called to accountability sooner rather than later.
My goal is to keep accumulating in a stepwise fashion if prices continue to drift lower. There is no telling if the FDA will announce approval pre PDUFA. There is absolutely no indication for REMS and a post-approval study can be announced at the time of the FDA approval. Obviously no one really knows where PPs will be next week, let alone a month from now. But we are headed forwards the finish line and nowhere else in the market today can you get the potential return on investment as ARNA can deliver. Case in point, I was hyped up about Facebook's IPO like everyone else, but what a let down! We all know that for FB to double or triple will take years, being a large cap north of $100 billion. Just look at how difficult it is for AAPL to maintain its gain.
Therefore, my thoughts are that since I have no doubt about lorcaserins efficacy and safety, along with obvious FDA support at the adcomm, ARNA will deliver the most in this mediocre/poor market. It is not ARNA's fault if PPS took a dip after the initial enthusiasm of ad comm and the secondary. Just look at what has happened to AAPL recently in this total market sell off.
Hold onto your shares and accumulate more if prices drop. You will be richly rewarded in just a little while.
Where does it say that? Can't find a guarantee anywhere on Schwab.com and I haven't been allocated yet. Thanks
$12 to $14 will be nice. Still won't justify me going all in but with PM trading going green my mood has brightened a bit.