If it takes up to a year from now to get approval, that would be downright unforgivable. People who suffer this disease need help now, not a year from now. From everything I've read on this MB and in the press, Rintega is safe and provides better efficacy than anything else available.
Plus, if Cldx must wait another year, then they certainly starting ramping up their hiring way too early.
I've read, if they file, than the odds of approval are very high. I hope so.
Finally, a chance to report better news. Moly rose 23 cents yesterday and now stands at $6.24. Let's hope it bottomed at 6.01. Enough mines should be shuttered by now to let prices rise. However, SG cu production with its moly byproduct will start up in earnest soon.
Thx for the input - wondering what happened at the end of the day.
Only thing that has chged is the timing. I assume you mean it has gotten delayed? Delayed how long? The deleveraging can't really begin until Dec when the GSO's can begin to be paid off.
Good assessment , armchair. There are days I wake up up thinking the future for copper will look exactly as you've outlined above. But, there are other days, more optimistic days, perhaps, when I view the glass as half full and not half empty. On these days, I believe stimulus efforts in China will begin to have a positive impact on manufacturing and housing. That China will ramp up their grid investment after getting off to a slow start this year. These are the days where I see continued progress in the U.S., Europe and elsewhere in manufacturing and alternative power investments. And, with 7 mos left in the year, there will undoubtedly be more disruptions in production. Just yesterday Iamgold cut gold production in half at one of their mines due to a seismic event. Ultimately, demand is what controls pricing. With increased demand, all these mining boats will float higher in the water.
China manufacturing per the PMI starting to stabilize; Eurozone PMI at highest level in yrs.
China housing starting to bottom. U.S. housing looks good.
Alternative energy (wind, solar, etc) favorable longer term trends for cu
Inventories are edging down a bit
With all these positives, demand not able to trend up, yet.
Big problem seems to be the China grid. Have only spent 20% of plan through
April. Seems part of the problem is related to a corruption scandal.
Any thoughts on demand (and supply) in the 2nd half of the year?
I think demand for concentrates will be fine (since Chinese smelter needs it).
Even though cu is priced around $2.63, I assume refined, scrap and concentrate each has their own
pricing structure. What I'm wondering is whether we'll see firmer prices for concentrate vs refined?
Yes, though I am using production #s that aren't far off what TC projected for this year. With improved thru put of 60k tpd next year, don't you think they can achieve these numbers?
Who would bet against gold averaging just $100 more next yr.
Copper? $3.35? I could be a year or half a year early on that one but 15 cents less won't make much difference to total sales.
Saw this quote today.
China’s apparent demand for copper last year was about 10 million tonnes, while future demand is likely to peak at 16 million tonnes, Wu Yuneng, vp of Jiangxi Copper, the country’s largest copper smelter, said at the Jinchuan Maike Resources Forum held in Shanghai.
Also saw an interesting article about how much copper is used in hybrids (110lbs) and electric cars (165lbs), as well as in wind turbines and in the solar and geothermal industries. Check out how much copper will be needed by Tesla when their gigafactory is built.
Shorter term, Eurozone PMI was up to 54.1 - a 49 mo high!
More cu demand is coming (and the supply is declining) - just how quickly this can happen is the question.
If we get $3.35 copper in 2016 (with 100mil lbs of prod) and 250k oz of gold (and let's assume gold rises $100 with all that's going on with the Chinese yuan, Greece & the world in general), what will TC's sales look like? Plus, throw in Langloth.
LIMA, June 26 (Reuters) - Southern Copper Corp hopes to reach an agreement with angry neighbors of its planned $1.4 billion Tia Maria mine in Peru, and end deadly protests in time to begin construction of the project before the end of 2015, the company's chief executive said on Friday. If it does so, Tia Maria could start producing copper in early 2018,
China copper imports for May...
Refined 275kT -2.7%
Scrap 285kT -6.1%
Concentrate 984kT +39.9%
All Other 84kT
Total equivalent copper = 915kT
About 85kT soft for the month but still not bad. With China stimulus efforts, an uptick in their housing market and some cu purchases for the grid, 2nd half of '15 could well be better.
She's right. Those are the rules. They are ok for the past 30 days. Good news from production numbers in a couple of weeks and they'll be ok again. Maybe officers will be buying at the end of each month.
Another reason TCK needs TC. See news release below...
TORONTO, June 25 (Reuters) - Canada's Teck Resources Ltd said it will suspend copper cathode production at its Quebrada Blanca operations in northern Chile after unexpected ground movement was observed near its plant on Thursday. The duration of the production interruption and impact on production are unknown, the base metals miner said. Teck said its preliminary investigation into the cause of the movement is expected to take at least one week. Mine operations not affected by the plant are continuing, said the company.
Another possible supply disruption.
Tm, I agree with you. However, I would argue only moly is totally dependent on the world economy. Copper, though dependent on the world economy, is also facing a looming shortage. That fact is not going to change. A soft world economy may prevent copper from getting to $4+ but a shortage may get it to $3.60.
Also, gold prices don't depend upon the world economy. Some might argue the opposite.
My guess in 12mos is moly at $8, copper at $3.25 and gold at $1300.
I know this is early to begin talking about the Q2 CC but with 240k in volume yesterday, there is not much else to discuss at the moment. So, here are my top 10! While they are not overly ambitious, they would show solid progress.
1. Confirmation that MM averaged close to if not over 55 tpd in June.
2. With 2 extra shipments, that TC was cash flow positive in Q2 and even ran a profit.
3. Expenses reduced, if only because of weakness in the Cn $.
4. Temporary hold on non-essential capex
5. Public announcement that the BLM/land swap has been finalized
6. Minor bond purchases at a discount
7. Cash build - maybe up to $250mm
8. Langloth continues to show growth
9. Moly sales from inventory of 2-3mm lbs resulting in $20mil revenue
10. A surprise that has some degree of positive impact
240k shares traded today. I checked back 4-5 mos and didn't see any day with fewer shares traded. It may well be the lowest number in years.
You guys that know trading patterns. No buying interest? Or, nothing for sale at these prices? Both? If a large holder wanted to increase their position, it'd be pretty difficult at these volume levels, unless, of course, they made a better bid.
I meant things may be looking up for cu in the 2nd half of '15. According to an article I read recently they stated 75% of copper is used in wiring. If that is true, shows the importance of housing. Hybrid and electric cars very important, as well.
More on China housing...
In May, building sales increased by 3.1% year-over-year. This is the first time since December 2013 that building sales have increased on an annual basis
I don't believe it's 700kT of copper from concentrate but rather 700kT of concentrate (use 27.5% for thecu yield). Copper from concentrate has been averaging @ 275kT per month this year. There will also be scrap of @ 285kT in May plus @ 100kT of semis and anodes.