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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

carlrich 225 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 26, 2015 6:30 PM Member since: Nov 22, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Keys for CC2???

    by privatesurfing12 Jul 26, 2015 6:13 PM
    carlrich carlrich Jul 26, 2015 6:30 PM Flag

    We already know production and sales #s, that they bought back some $35mm in sr debt and generated $10 in FCF. Ultra says we won't hear on the BLM deal till Sept.

    Throughput will be key (approaching 55-60k tpd).
    I also think we might hear a bit on cost cutting at MM, as well as SG&A.

    Perron will talk about how this is the worst price environment in more than a decade. Analysts then might ask how well TC can hold up with lower cu prices. Also, what do they see in the future for cu prices. (TC called the moly price decline pretty accurately).

    Finally, I'm always hoping for something unexpected and positive. We haven't had one of those in a while. Don't have any clue as to what I'd like to hear. Increased moly sales at very low cost? LMC doing better than expected. Some color on their debt.

    I can't see them buying back more debt, as they need to preserve cash given the drop in cu prices.

  • carlrich carlrich Jul 26, 2015 12:53 PM Flag

    If 10 yrs, where are we now. When are you starting the clock? Is Cldx is yr 7-8 now in your opinion.

    scr20022000 said in another recent post that while the rindo data have been--let's say okay--they haven't turned a lot of heads. We're not talking ibrutinib in MCL.

    So, will we get a Rintega approval? Plus, we've all been awaiting the approval some time this summer, most felt in July. Do you feel Cldx will get it in Aug or later in the fall. A lot of frustration on the MB.

  • A Chilean mining contract worker was shot dead by police on Friday during a protest against state-owned copper company Codelco, prompting union leaders to say a four-day strike would intensify. Contract workers with the Confederation of Copper Workers, or CTC, have blocked roads at Codelco projects around the country demanding the right to negotiate a benefits package similar to that offered to direct Codelco employees.

    The CTC did not elaborate on how it would escalate the labor dispute, which has already forced the suspension of operations at Codelco's Salvador mine. Last year the mine produced 54,000 tonnes, or just under 1 percent of the company's total copper output.

    "The conflict obviously will keep going and, in fact, it will intensify. We're not going to let the death of our colleague be in vain," CTC President Manuel Ahumada said by telephone.

  • carlrich carlrich Jul 24, 2015 7:58 PM Flag

    Disappointing. When does the govt get any work done? Ultra said Sept now.

  • Reply to

    How well can TC withstand low copper prices?

    by straightdope13 Jul 24, 2015 5:13 AM
    carlrich carlrich Jul 24, 2015 6:15 PM Flag

    It's part of the income statement but doesn't directly affect cash. When I account for it in the income statement, lately I've assumed the amount will equal capex. I probably misled you on that one.

    I have TC at zero FCF at about $2.20 for cu and $1000 for au.

    Don't see those prices lasting for the next 2 1/2 yrs. If the land swap ever gets approved, they could pick up some moly $$.

  • carlrich carlrich Jul 24, 2015 6:06 PM Flag

    Thx for all the info. Still digesting it.

  • carlrich carlrich Jul 24, 2015 6:05 PM Flag

    Ultra, lack of a final EIS. We haven't talked about this for nearly 6 mos. Do you have any knowledge of current status. I had expected an announcement on this at the May CC. Nothing. If they do get it/announce it, do you think they'd gear up the TCM operations a bit more. I figure they'd get $6.25 a lb less $4.25 cost for $2 times 25 mil lbs is $50mm. Costs might be lower. Thoughts? This helps to pay down debt.

  • carlrich carlrich Jul 24, 2015 6:00 PM Flag

    Maybe TC will do more buying of its debt if it's less than par.

  • Reply to

    How well can TC withstand low copper prices?

    by straightdope13 Jul 24, 2015 5:13 AM
    carlrich carlrich Jul 24, 2015 5:16 PM Flag

    Yes, add gold in at 48% of 125k @ $1050 at 52% of 125k at 435.
    Bump up SGA to 35-40mm.
    Add in @ net + $30mm for moly operations.
    Put in 15-20mm for leasing
    Depreciation will about equal capex
    Put MM costs close to $200mm.

  • carlrich carlrich Jul 24, 2015 3:00 PM Flag

    TM, I've been following your numbers but not the implications. Where is this gold going - warehouses, Chinese govt purchases, other or all 3. China recently up dated their gold reserves. Thru what point in time 2014?? If govt is buying, were these included in what they recently released? Finally, you and this MB aren't the only ones who track this. The gold analysts at the investment houses know this as well. What do you think it's telling them? Does this still have something to do with the yuan becoming a reserve currency? If you've addressed any of this before, just give me a date that you wrote it and I'll track it down. Thx in advance.

  • Reply to

    Positive comments about China - part 2

    by carlrich Jul 23, 2015 9:16 PM
    carlrich carlrich Jul 23, 2015 9:19 PM Flag

    And part 3...

    China has invested more than 265.1 billion yuan (43.3 billion U.S. dollars) in domestic railway construction in the first half of the year, up 12.7 percent from one year earlier, China Railway Corporation said on Thursday.
    In the first six months, an additional 2,226 km of new railway lines were put into service, the company said in a statement to Xinhua.

    To bolster a slowing economy, the Chinese government has made railway infrastructure one of the seven prioritized sectors for investment. The rest include environmental protection, clean energy, the POWER GRID and health care.

  • Experts also believe the Chinese economy, whose performance also impacts the world economy, would continue at a stable pace in the second half of the year. "As the policies aiming at stabilizing the economy continue to take effect, the Chinese economy is expected to gain more momentum in the third quarter," Guo Feng, chief economist on China at the Institute of International Finance, told Xinhua.

    "China has a range of policies that will beneficially effect the economy in quarters to come: One Belt One Road, Internet Plus, and Made In China, to name a few," Ahern said, emphasizing that "continued focus on implementation of these policies will help mitigate Greece's turmoil in Europe and the continued low growth in the United States." The Silk Road Economic Belt, together with the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road, commonly known as the "Belt and Road" initiatives, were proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013. The initiatives bring together countries in Asia, Europe and even Africa via overland and maritime networks, with the purpose of boosting infrastructure building, financial cooperation and cultural exchanges in those regions.

  • China's economy in the second quarter stayed on track to hit the government's 7-percent growth target for the entire year, beating negative speculation over China's economic performance and winning applaud from overseas experts. In exclusive interviews with Xinhua and articles published by news media,the experts attributed the favorable half-year performance to the country's ongoing reform and flexible policies.

    "The first impression from the latest data is one of stability, with signs of restored momentum heading into the second half of the year. However, to the extent that growth was supported by financial sector gains from the stock market, it won't be sustained without further stimulus," Tom Orlik and Fielding Chen, Asia Economists for Bloomberg, told Xinhua.

    They also mentioned that data for June pointed to restored momentum at the end of the quarter: Industrial output accelerated to 6.8 percent annual growth from 6.1 percent in May; retail sales accelerated slightly and fixed asset investment held steady -- halting a series of falls in the growth rate.

    "Resilient growth likely reflects a combination of stimulus measures passing through to the real economy and frenetic activity on the equity market," the Bloomberg experts added. Igor Nikolayev, director of the FBK Strategic Analysis Institute of Russia, regarded the data as a "pleasant surprise" with key figures beyond expectations, beating former market forecast of 6.8 percent.

    In the eyes of Brendan Ahern, chief investment officer of a U.S. fund company Kraneshares, the economic data are "positive indications that China's economy is coming through a bottoming process." "Most impressive is the growth in retail sales which rose 10.6 percent, which shows the long run policy has benefited urbanization and raised domestic consumption," Ahern told reporters.

  • Reply to

    I exited my position

    by ultraiflc3 Jul 23, 2015 8:16 PM
    carlrich carlrich Jul 23, 2015 8:48 PM Flag

    Ran out of options to depress the pps so they impersonate a strong buy long. Should be reported.

  • carlrich carlrich Jul 23, 2015 8:11 PM Flag

    Good work TM...

    So, here's a few things we know.

    1) Through the 1st 6mos of 2015 car sales in China are up 5.2% (9.6mm to 10.1mm)

    2) Through the 1st 6mos, China's copper imports are within 1% of last year's imports.

    3) Using ICSG's figures, through April, ww copper production was 64k mT more than usage. This is on a base of 7.3mm mT And, in April alone usage exceeded production by 82k mT.

    4) In China, the total sale of commercial bldgs as of June vs YA was +10%.

    This is just a sampling of a few statistics relevant to copper. Now, one can say the figures are in error. Maybe, but then were they also in error a year ago as well? One can say this is looking backward. But, looking forward, things look like they are slowing. Of course. But, China has been providing some stimulus and it takes time to work its way into the economy. Will it provide the needed boost? Who knows. But, it's probably slowing any decline.

    It is hard to say things are so dire as to support a cu price of $2.38.

    Then, one can draw on all the statistics that support supply disruptions that will cause a reduction in copper production, which the miners themselves have acknowledged.

    Maybe Goldman, with their stream of press releases, is scaring the h%^%^ out of people and,in fact, are contributing to the decline in copper prices they are predicting. (Heck, copper prices are only .17 cents from Goldman's prediction for the end of 2016). Many other investment houses are predicting higher copper prices later this year.

  • carlrich carlrich Jul 23, 2015 4:08 PM Flag

    Almost as bad as TC's 10.88% decline.

  • Reply to


    by arnoldboils Jul 23, 2015 7:46 AM
    carlrich carlrich Jul 23, 2015 9:52 AM Flag

    Boils, you say. they've lost money on the Jan 15 puts. Then, bought Jan 16 puts at a loss to close a position and have rolled them out to Mar 16. So far, they've lost money. And, seem to be short of cash At what price is this person looking for TC in Jan 16 and Mar 16?

  • carlrich carlrich Jul 22, 2015 9:06 PM Flag

    I need to stop reading copper news for a while. Never have seen so much negative. Starting with Ultra's favorite investment house, Goldman. They are predicting copper prices get cut by 44% to 2018. No sure what ..." to 2018" even means. They are also predicting copper to drop 16% by end of year to $2.05.
    If it fell 44% from today's prices, that'd be $1.37. The only copper that would be available would be scrap because no one would be producing at $1.36. Would they?

    Then I read inventories in LME approved warehouses have doubled since Jan to 340k mT.

    What I do know is that China imported nearly as much copper from Jan-June in '15 as they did in '14. That BHP has forecast 200k mT less production in its next fiscal year. Plus all the other production cutbacks that Ultra has been reporting on. At the current price and with all the disruptions/grade declines at so many of the world's copper mines, supply will be dropping.

    Just today workers are striking in Chile once again.

  • carlrich carlrich Jul 22, 2015 5:30 PM Flag

    Read this a few minutes ago...

    The number of requests to withdraw copper from London Metal Exchange warehouses relative to the level of global inventories tracked by the bourse dropped this week to the lowest since March 2013. That shows consumption has almost dried up for the stockpiles that have doubled over the past year.

    Slower economic growth in China, the world’s biggest metals user, helps to explain the drop in demand. For commodity investors, it’s a bad omen because copper has historically been used as an indicator for what’s to come in raw materials and as a gauge of global expansion. “Concerns about copper prices and Chinese demand for copper, that’s a good reason to be worried more generally about demand for industrial metals and a wide variety of other commodities as well.”

    Copper futures for August delivery declined 1.7 percent to $2.433 a pound at 11 a.m. on the Comex in New York, heading for the biggest loss in two weeks.
    “On a fundamental basis, at the moment, the market is still extremely well supplied with material,” Matthew Wonnacott, a senior consultant at CRU Group in London, said in a telephone interview. “There’s really no reason why anybody should need to withdraw material from an exchange for consumption. Demand in the market is just disappointing this year. It’s not just China, in general demand is poor.”

  • carlrich carlrich Jul 22, 2015 5:16 PM Flag

    With weak production in Chile (and even in China) plus reasonably solid copper demand in 1H 2015 (based on the recent numbers) and that inventories are not particularly growing, it is very surprising prices have dipped again down to $2.43. When is this deficit going to become apparent. So many investment advisers continue to predict lower prices right through the end of the year.

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