Back of the envelop calculation - an additional $280mm (cu $3 to $4=$80mm; au $1200 to $1600=$50mm and 15mm lbs of moly at $14 vs 6mm lbs at $10=$150mm).
Always surprises me how this many shares can move through without the price changing, unless it's the market maker moving through a lot of shares that they had accumulated for someone.
Who do you think has shorted copper. I thought Goldman had as one of their strategies for 2014 to short copper. Did other investment banking houses jump on board? How does this jive with Red Kite buying up LME inventories. Do GS and others decide to cover the short once they see enough compelling evidence that China will continue to buy large quantities of copper (and that maybe cu supplies won't be in surplus?
With getting close to 100% design plus adding a 2nd crusher, how close to 100k do you think MM can get - 90k?
Plus, the buyer also gets a moly operation!
Thx for the correction. Their Q3 production # seems quite high - equaling the first 6 months of the year. If correct, they've turned things around in the last qtr.
Have looked at additional info on the Lumwana mine. In 2013, it produced 260k tonnes. But, in 2014, production through the first 9 mos was 138 mm lbs or @ 63k tons. This is way below last year's pace. Part of the problem in '14 was they had a partial collapse. Also, they stated their fully allocated costs at $2.98 for the first 9 mos of '14. (But, I also read that in Q3 they produced 34k tons at a cost of $1.84). If this is so, then they've gotten production back up to & even higher than their 2013 rate and have gotten their costs down. The dispute with the govt is over a royalty tax that is going up from 6% to 20% on Jan 1st. I guess now Barrick waits to see if the govt blinks first.
Let us know if ICSG continues to reduce their 2015 net surplus position. It should also give a good read on how demand is holding up.
Have read about more copper mine suspensions, namely in Zambia.
Konkala suspends operations at its Nchanga copper mine in Zambia due to reduced power supply (9/14)
Glenmore suspends operations at 2 of its copper mines in Zambia due to tax row.
1st Quantum made a similar move in Zambia.
Barrick Gold to stop production at its Lumwane copper mine (Zambia) due to tax increase from 6% to 20%.
Barrick also has stopped construction of its Pascua-Lama gold mine in Chile
Chile has ordered El Morro to stop its development due to sorting out regulatory issues
Maybe we won't be hearing as often from dime, muffin, do, superlite, iraq, dadufuss, armchair, etc.
Well said and well written. On Dec 31st, I'll raise a glass to 2105 and try to forget the past 4 mos.
Skimmed the Technical Report - as if that's possible!
Given the overall/LOM ratio of 1.8 to1.0, I've decided to use a 1.2:to 1 ratio for 2015 (to be conservative like Perron). Assuming TC produces 260K oz og gold in '15, they should produce 300+oz of silver for @ $5m in revenue. This still may be a little light.
For LMC, I'm moving my revenue estimate up to $20mm.
So, $25m for LMC and silver together. Hope it's more.
I assume these technical reports are very meticulous and hold up over time. The MM report is from 2009
Not sure where you are coming from re: silver. First, you write silver at MM? Then, you write their silver is probably worth $6-7m. Is that LOM? Your thoughts on my projecting $1m for silver in 2015. More?
There's a lot we don't know about Langeloth since they'll be embarking into new territory. We can't really estimate total volume processed, where it'll be sourced, the % that'll be ferro, oxide and other, success in sourcing moly concentrate, etc. etc. So, I just put Langeloth down for @ $18m in rev in 2015. Just a guess.
Check p75 of the 2013 10K. $200k for silver from MM for 3 mos. Maybe they get $1mm for a fiscal yr. As you say, all this stuff adds up.
I have LMC plus any silver revenue at $19mm for 2015.
Don't forget about $50-60mm in annual depreciation which becomes part of FCF. Plus, they won't be able to take out the 12/15 note until @ Mar '16 cause they need to give 60 day notification. So, another qtr will go by (Q4 '15). This will add another $25-30 m. They should be between $425-450mm in cash by then.