If they release prod #s, they should be out @ Oct 7-9. One would think there'd be a slow rise in the pps going into those #s or at least once the #s come out. Most pricing and prod #s should be roughly the same or slightly better than Q2 which would lead to continued cash build.
Seems like they are taking out stops and shaking the trees. But, it's being done with very little volume. Assuming it's a bunch of 100 sh short sell trades. Seems like a bottom.
All you guys who wanted a lower price, you've got it now. Hasn't been this low since early May. Since May, we've had two very good earnings reports, cash build, numerous financial conferences, cu prices have held and moly still higher than last May. Yet, volume remains low and the pps is off some 18%.
Though it depends upon the type of stk option he had, he'll get taxed at capital gains rates, from here on up, rather than as regular compensation.
A for shepherding MM to a very solid start. D on communications and being overly conservative. Though he got a solid B on his most recent talk.
With respect to giving us an earnings projection, I admit it's difficult given the fluctuation in metals prices. AU seems to go up/down on variables that can't be anticipated. CU and moly generally depend on world economies and supply variables. However, with TC mine, he could have been more forthcoming. Seems the difference in cost between C&M and slow stripping are pretty small. Take the TC mine revenue.
Seems Perron may now be more solidly focused on building cash. And, if so, this will go on till 12/15 when some debt gets paid off and hopefully much of the rest is restructured.
Agreed that miners are down, especially sm and midcaps. Also, small caps are down across the board.
The analysts baffle me. Not convinced about TC burning them in the past. Most of the current crop are newer and may not know/care about the past. They probably don't spend a lot of time on it.
Hate to mention buyout. Somebody always does when the price seems unreasonably low. But, my gosh, someone could offer double the current price and get a heck of a deal. Plus they get to restructure the debt asap. My calculations suggest they'd get MM at cost and for only 200mm get 2 moly mines and Langeloth.
Volume anemic. In fact, volume has exceeded ave volume only a few times for a month now. Pretty easy for traders to keep prices down when only a couple of hundred thousand shares have been traded like today. They just have to keep sending in those 100 sh trades any time the price pops up. Most sellers are holding for news and won't sell at these prices.
SG hasn't begun producing yet. It must be steel production hasn't kicked from the summer shutdowns. General slowdown in the world economies? Plus, the China #s a few days ago concerned some.
Doesn't it function much like a royalty stream? Except, versus our deal with Royal Gold, the price moves according to market prices and is not held at a single price for the life of the contract.
What continues to be confusing is TC's situation today vs a year ago. PPS is at 2.77 down 23% from this time last year at 3.59. But... 1) Moly prices are up 30% ($10 vs $13). 2) MM is up and running towards full production. Last Sept, there were all kinds of questions about the MM ramp up. 3) TC has $215mm in cash vs last year when it had $345mm. But, a portion of that money was for final MM capex expenses. 4) In Q2 '14 TC made $67mm vs last year's Q3 period when it made $12mm. 4) TC gets closer to EIS permitting each month. 5) Macro issues are roughly the same though we are quickly learning that both moly and copper may soon be in short supply. 6) The tMeds are converted. Done. Short interest removed. 7) TC has broader institution ownership than a year ago with GG & Oner selling.
But, TC is still down 23%. Let's be honest. Most of us expected the pps to at least be at $4 by now. I recall Dragon, I believe, projecting $5 by year end. He could still be correct. What gives?
I believe TC's pps right now is trading on issues directly related to the company and not metal prices. Company issues include how high TC can ramp up MM production and whether more capex (crusher) is required (and when it's required), whether or not TC goes on C&M (most think so but most don't know for how long) and how much cash they will generate by 12/2015. Once those issues are fairly well resolved, then TC will trade more on metal prices - maybe in 2016 unless, of course, metal prices go really crazy one way or the other. But, TC is much better diversified now with MM than what it used to be with just moly.
If China makes both purchases (2700&2300 tonnes), that'll be @ 11mm lbs. I believe that represents 2% of annual supply. That should help support the price and send a signal to traders that the market is very tight.
China buying is a very good signal.
I picked up the comment from Mike who seemed to have a good review of the presentation. Mike wrote "They can probably sell stockpile through most of next year, and if they strip as they please to generate extra cash they need they can buy themselves some time and clarity.."
I felt Perron gave a good presentation. He was direct, positive and emphasized how well things were going (at MM). He was smoother and answered questions directly & briefly without getting bogged down by details like the hardness of rock.
They are testing a crusher now. He made clear that they may not need a secondary crushing for a few years yet because they can blend different rock hardnesses, hence buying some time on the cash outlay for another crusher.
He emphasized building cash. He may be convinced TC can't do anything about their debt at this point other than to build cash.
TC mine essentially comes down to how much supply comes out of Sierra Gorda and what is the imp[act on moly prices. If the market can absorb the supply without prices dropping, then it seemed Perron suggested they would at least do a modified strip of Ph 8 with or without a partner. I couldn't tell if they had enough TC mine moly available to sell throughout 2015.
Mike has put together a very good summary of the presentation on another thread. Other thoughts?
Sounds confusing. They're going on C&M, yet stripping makes a lot of sense above $12 moly. Moly's at $13. No! We've discussed moly supply extensively on the MB and have concluded it'll be very tight vs demand. Perron's comments on the TC mine has confused for months now. Do you think going on C&M is just thru June?
Yes, this seemed new to me. Excluding K & J. Douglas, these listed institutions represent 30% of shares. Kevin and James plus other insiders represent 6%. NASDAQ figures from June 30th showed 40% institutions. So, don't know whether the % held by tudes has gone down or up since June as I'm comparing apples and oranges.
Agreed. Maybe it'll take off with a buyout offer. With all the valuations I've seen on this MB, TC is a bargain in a stable country with all permitting done.