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Iridium Communications Inc. Message Board

carne8ielaker 63 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 25, 2014 9:30 AM Member since: Jul 24, 2012
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  • carne8ielaker by carne8ielaker Sep 25, 2014 9:30 AM Flag

    This comes from OLED-Info this morning:
    "UBI Research estimates that the OLED lighting market will take off in 2015, and will grow to reach $4.7 billion in revenue by 2020. According to UBI within three years a 100x100 mm OLED lighting panel will cost under $5 to produce. This is assuming a large substrate (1270x1270 mm), a fast production process and a tandem structure."

    (interesting chart that one cant copy/paste showing percentage of costs...labor;materials;utility;investment...and how they shift over time

    "In such a scenario, the largest cost (over 80%) will be for the OLED materials. This means that at that stage companies will put most of their focus on lowering the material usage and cheaper OLED materials."

    So the question is: what % of that cost will be revenue for UDC? 80% of $4.7 billion equals $3.76 billion in OLED materials...under almost any assumption set UDC gets a LOT of revenue! And since the contribution margin for UDC is so high....the vast majority of that revenue will fall to the bottom line...

  • carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Sep 25, 2014 9:18 AM Flag

    I think that the implicit good news in this announcement, is that Aireon is getting a senior official from the FAA to join the Aireon team. I don;'t think he would make the jump if he didn;'t believe that the FAA was going to adopt Aireon...

  • carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Sep 25, 2014 9:13 AM Flag

    I think you are confusing what the real value of Aireon is...for ANSPs (the FAAs of the world) to be able to direct aircraft into flying lanes that are much more efficient. Right now, since there is no "radar" over the oceans, planes have to fly literally miles apart from each other, and thousands of feet apart in elevation, just to ensure that they don't inadvertently get too close/crash. Consequently, most planes are not allowed to fly with the most advantageous prevailing winds, nor the most direct route. In addition, because the ANSPs cant accurately predict when the plane will arrive in the landing pattern, pilots will fly their planes as fast as they can to "get into the landing queue" only to then have to circle the airport prior to landing. WIth Aireon, the plane will get an accurate landing time, and will then be able to optimize fuel burn/speed over the course of the entire trip. The combination of all of these will save airlines hundreds of millions in fuel savings (and passengers will have a more enjoyable experience since they wont feel like they are about to land, and then be frustrated that the plane is circling for 20 minutes.) Being able to find "lost planes" is just an added bonus of the system...not the primary purpose.

  • carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Sep 17, 2014 9:26 AM Flag

    gotta love the last paragraph..."market observers" don't think it necessarily indicates that Apple will consider it for iPhones etc. contrary to what "some analysts" have speculated...so who is more credible...a "market observer" or "some analysts"...?

    Bottom line is that Apple will have no choice but to move to OLED panels for their phones since flexibility/durability and the ability to create new form-factors will force their hand...we all knew that the iPhone6 would not have OLED, but if it takes 2 more years before the iPhone7 comes out, we can be sure that THAT phone will have an OLED screen, since by that time there will be enough capacity to supply Apple.

  • Reply to

    A question for fellow longs

    by eclipse20251 Sep 15, 2014 6:13 PM
    carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Sep 16, 2014 1:56 PM Flag

    Eclipse; not sure why it matters if you are long or short...in my mind there is only one "risk" worth talking about, and I personally believe it to be a "perceived" risk, rather that a real one....and it is the reason why the stock of a company that has both the historical as well as prospective growth demonstrated by UDC continues to sell as if it has little growth...and I also believe that it is the reason why the short interest remains high, regardless of the drum beat of positive news we have received for the last 6 months (and longer). That is the risk of a so-called "patent cliff" that occurs in late 2017 when some of the basic architecture patents that UDC owns do in fact expire. The bears will have you believe that UDC's entire business expires with it. If you believe what mgt has said, the SMD agreement expiration date had everything to do with the planning horizon of SMD and NOTHING to do with the expiration of patents...yet the bears think there is a correlation. What I believe (and public commentary from UDC mgt confirms) is that virtually every "product" (ie emitters and host) that UDC sells today, has patent protection through the early 2020's if not the end of that decade (for example the new green emitter that SMD is using has patent protection through 2029).

    There are 2 ways for this perceived risk to be debunked: 1) We can wait until 2018 comes around, and see what happens to UDC revenue. or 2) UDC signs a long term agreement with a major OEM (like LG) that runs well through the "cliff" period, proving to the market that an entity that has virtually unlimited resources (ie LG) believes that nothing will change in 2018

    To me the biggest risk is NOT owning OLED when that announcement comes...and it will come in the short term given all the public proclamations by LG vis a vis OLED TV production/profitablity.

  • Reply to

    samsung ventures invests in Kateeva

    by panl2b2 Sep 15, 2014 1:01 PM
    carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Sep 15, 2014 3:20 PM Flag

    I agree, but I think that the first game they will conquer will be on the lighting side. If you have a pixel here or there that doesn't light properly on a TV panel, the whole panel is junk; whereas the same "flaw" might be undetectable in a lighting panel. Plus, even if everyone in the world wanted a 55" OLED TV that would still be less m2 than if OLED lighting panels could roll out of an ink jet system....and since they are selling machines, they should want to attack the market with the demand for the most machines...lightling..

  • While everyone knows that Samsung Electronics (SME) was experiencing a slow down in their high end smartphone business, what we did NOT know, is whether Samsung DISPLAY (SMD) would be able to find other customers to ensure that they could continue to run their OLED fabs full out...So in the past few days we have seen a new Motorola phone and today, a new tablet from Dell. And now we have super-salesman Michael Dell touting the superiority of OLED technology. Bottom line; SMD will be able to sell as many OLED panels as they can produce (after the small hiccup in late Q2/earlyQ3) and the demand from LG will be additive, not substitutive...

  • Reply to

    LG and Apple - a thought

    by carne8ielaker Sep 9, 2014 9:17 AM
    carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Sep 9, 2014 10:39 AM Flag

    from an SEC perspective, it would have to go like this: UDC agrees (in concept) to adjust the purchase price back to July 1. In other words, IF (and WHEN) LG were to sign the agreement that has been proffered by UDC (maybe it was written on July 10th) , then the pricing would be effective at the beginning of the Q...but LG hasn't quite signed it yet...nobody knows what the hang-up is ;) since (after years of negotiation) the terms have been agreed to...but still LG sits on it....UDC can't "announce" a deal, when it hasn't been signed yet...so everybody gets what they want...UDC gets the deal; LG gets the pricing to start on July 1, and LGs customer (whoever that might be) gets to announce a few new products without the world receiving details about it through a contract signing (and SEC information needs) prior to today...I mean the big announcement day (whenever that occurs)...

  • carne8ielaker by carne8ielaker Sep 9, 2014 9:17 AM Flag

    Thinking out loud....is it possible that in Apple's desire for secrecy that they discouraged LG from consummating a long term agreement with UDC until AFTER the iWatch was released? In other words, could a LT agreement be on the short term horizon?

  • Reply to

    what time tomorrow is the apple release

    by dca1125 Sep 8, 2014 1:01 PM
    carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Sep 8, 2014 2:24 PM Flag

    confirmed via another credible source....10 PT 1 pm EDT

  • Reply to

    Mr Carl Icahn

    by robbsbeach Sep 8, 2014 10:52 AM
    carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Sep 8, 2014 12:07 PM Flag

    he was already nominated by Richard Handler of Luecadia/Jefferies...

  • Reply to

    Apple Invites Fashion Industry To 9/9 Event

    by dca1125 Sep 8, 2014 9:28 AM
    carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Sep 8, 2014 10:42 AM Flag

    I have a more simple request...that I may purchase the 10 millionth 77" OLED TV built by LG...one that flexes at the touch of a button....and may that purchase take place in 2016...if that comes to pass then perhaps I can own a fleet of G-5s as well...(all outfitted with OLED TVs throughout the cabin)

  • Reply to

    Apple Invites Fashion Industry To 9/9 Event

    by dca1125 Sep 8, 2014 9:28 AM
    carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Sep 8, 2014 9:41 AM Flag

    yes DCA...I think this is big news...as it seems to "confirm" that the iWatch will be part of the 9/9 event...and that Apple has something truly unique in the wearables market. Also, on the assumption that the iWatch will be OLED and that it will be produced by LG, I think it will also accelerate the need for LG to sign a long-term agreement with UDC...and for all the patent nay-sayers out there...a LT agreement that runs through the so-called patent cliff will be the last leg of the short story to fall...

  • carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Sep 5, 2014 9:31 AM Flag

    my first plasma (a Pioneer that I think I paid over $3k for) had a separate box and there were only two wires coming out of it...power cable, and a special cable that ran between the TV and the box...makes much more sense than having to plug HDMI cables into the TV whenever you want to add something. Back then, we thought we might even be able to eliminate the cable box by installing a "card" (cant remember the name of the cards) but the cable companies nixed that idea (they want their $8/month/box). TV guys should be moving towards thin/flat(not curved) with as few wires as possible...IMHO

  • carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Sep 5, 2014 9:01 AM Flag

    I agree...I wonder what % of people hang their flat screen vs keep it on a stand. If it stays on a stand, then curved probably works really well, since you can subtly shift it to be in the exact middle of your viewing area. But I would imagine that the majority of people with a 55+ TV want to hang it on the wall...and if its up there and not on, you don't want to notice it (and you will if it is curved). Longer term, however, the combination of curved and flexible will be the key...flat when you want it flat, and then you can "bend" it when you want it curved...

    Bottom line, if they offer a 65" non-curved version, I would pay up for it!

  • carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Sep 4, 2014 5:44 PM Flag

    here is a quote back in June from Rich: OLED "is still $25, going to the teens soon"...so the stock is up a mere 48% from then...and now he wants to declare victory since it didn't hold its high, but yet was up over 6% in a down tape...that short must be squeezing the round ones pretty good...

  • Reply to

    LUK Investor Meeting

    by dickeypiper1 Sep 3, 2014 9:09 AM
    carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Sep 3, 2014 2:09 PM Flag

    When you buy LUK you are buying a bunch of businesses at book value (or less) with very savvy management at the helm...and they have a lot of dry powder...the will not be promotional, but they will be patient...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Aug 28, 2014 3:45 PM Flag

    many thanks

  • carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Aug 28, 2014 1:59 PM Flag

    can we at least call the company by the right name? its UD "C" (which stands for corporation by the way...so it should be easy to remember)

  • Reply to

    data disply acquisition

    by dutchref Aug 15, 2014 9:02 AM
    carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Aug 26, 2014 9:34 AM Flag

    PCAR...one of the best long term stocks over the past 25+ years...family controlled...high dividend payout...

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