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Black Diamond, Inc. Message Board

carne8ielaker 77 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 10, 2014 2:11 PM Member since: Jul 24, 2012
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  • carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Jul 10, 2014 2:11 PM Flag

    I wonder if people know that Ron publishes OLED-INFO...so he is not some fresh college graduate trying to make a name for himself making outrageous predictions; this is a guy who has forgotten more about the OLED industry than the rest of us know...

  • Reply to

    Street Authority Article is Absurd

    by dca1125 Jul 10, 2014 12:17 PM
    carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Jul 10, 2014 1:39 PM Flag

    I don't think he is "totally wrong"...he misses a few key things and doesn't give any catalysts (ie a long term agreement with LG) but in general it is a positive article...would you rather have a "short driven" totally incorrect article written? :)

  • Reply to

    Samsung Earnings

    by abqnorseman Jul 8, 2014 9:32 AM
    carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Jul 8, 2014 9:55 AM Flag

    the things that jumped out at me with regard to UDC is that while high end smart phone sales held up fairly well (ie good for OLED) the lower end (those without OLED screens) we weak, with sales going to cheaper competitors. Additionally tablet sales were weak. Bit of course that is before the release of the TabS, which we all know is being launched with a strong marketing push. My takeaway from the Samsung results is that the company needs to keep pushing the concept that AMOLED is far superior to LCD screens, since AMOLED is one of the differentiating features for Samsung products...since without such a differentiating feature, Samsung risks getting commoditized.

  • carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Jul 8, 2014 7:05 AM Flag

    if there are enough of these sold to move the needle for UDC, we are all in trouble...

  • Reply to

    ordered my Tab S

    by carne8ielaker Jul 3, 2014 11:57 AM
    carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Jul 3, 2014 2:56 PM Flag

    my wife has an iPad case that doubles as a keyboard (uses Blue tooth) and its made by Logitech...really works well, so I am hoping that Logitech will have one for the TabS in short order, and I will get one of those....but I will report my "typing" experience on the S after I get it on Monday

  • carne8ielaker by carne8ielaker Jul 3, 2014 11:57 AM Flag

    A few months ago I pulled my iPad out of my briefcase, and it was underneath a bunch of other stuff...when I finally got it out, I must have flexed it too much and the screen looked like a bullet had hit it...but it continued to work so I didn't replace it. So NOW I have a good excuse to buy a 10 inch TabS which I just did, and it will be delivered on Monday...so I will report in on my impressions (although I am clearly biased to like it considering my OLED holdings)

    The reason I explained WHY I needed a new tablet is also to point out that when "flexible" screens become the norm (and that can only happen with an OLED screen) they will become a whole lot more durable, and durability (along with brighter colors, thinner design, better battery life etc.) will become another selling point for OLED screens on anything portable...

  • Reply to

    Analyst multiples? huh?

    by investmenttankerblogspot Jul 2, 2014 8:02 PM
    carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Jul 3, 2014 11:18 AM Flag

    tanker is correct in that UDC will make more $ without a LT contract in place, and if UDC were a private company, that might be the strategy to pursue. Thankfully for us, however, UDC is a public company, and in order to be accorded a high multiple on impressive financials a LT agreement is key (ie agree with Troper). We also need to remember that the market likes smooth and abhors lumpy...so the smoother the revenue stream can become (all things being equal) the less likely you will get a "negative surprise" and then the multiple will be better as well. While most people might not realize, UDC would have been hurting big time in 2012 had they not had the kind of deal they actually struck with SMD. The market had hoped that UDC would have a materials and royalty arrangement, but instead UDC ended up with a materials (with minimum purchase requirements) and a license agreement, with the difference of course being that a royalty pays on units actually shipped/sold while the license was/is paid regardless of production. In Q3 of '12 when SMD pushed out production and material sales disappointed (and perhaps held up by min purchase requirements) the stock was slammed, but it would have been a lot bloodier had there been a royalty rather than a license payment coming.

    Looking at it a bit differently, assume that WITH a LT agreement LG will represent $1 of 2015 EPS earnings whereas WITHOUT a LT agreement, LG might represent $1.20 of 2015 EPS. I would argue that the market will assign a 30+ multiple with an agreement in place while only assigning a 20+ multiple without one. For the sake of easy math, assume that other customers (including Samsung) represent $1.50 of EPS...so UDC can earn $2.50 WITH and agreement or $2.70 WITHOUT an agreement....if the stock will get a 30 x multiple WITH an agreement, OLED goes to $75 (30x$2.50) but if there is NO agreement and we only get a 20x multiple, then the stock will only go to $54. I'll take $75 over $54.

  • Reply to

    Tiernan Ray is one of the bad guys

    by dca1125 Jul 2, 2014 2:08 PM
    carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Jul 2, 2014 5:51 PM Flag

    tanker...I think you merely read his report incorrectly, or maybe you didn't see the actual report and someone passed along bad info. On the first page of the report you will see his (Gabelli analyst) earnings estimates for '14 is 0.92 and then 1.55 for '15 and finally 2.15 for 2016...if you take those numbers, and divide them by the closing price listed on his report of $32.10 you will get a CURRENT P/E for those earnings estimates. In other words, $32.10/$2.15 = (about) 14.7 (not sure why the decimals aren't exact, but they are all close) So he is pointing out how CHEAP the stock is today, since it is only trading at a 14.7 times multiple of 2016 earnings. He arrives at a price target of $66 for NEXT year by combining a higher PE as well as the Gabelli PMV (private market value) that he calculates on Table 2 of his report. Hope that helps clear that up.

  • Reply to

    Seems obvious to me...

    by jmuronis Jul 1, 2014 10:06 AM
    carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Jul 1, 2014 2:40 PM Flag

    remind me again how you calculate short interest?

  • Reply to

    Seems obvious to me...

    by jmuronis Jul 1, 2014 10:06 AM
    carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Jul 1, 2014 11:55 AM Flag

    DCA is one of the most thoughtful people on this board...as to your question, the purpose of a share buyback is simply the allocation of capital (at least the good ones are). UDC has over $275 million in cash on their B/S and will be generating cash from now on. They see the fundamental progress the company is making, and they see the share price depressed. So they are allocating capital to purchase an undervalued asset. Buying shares does not "make the share price go up" but rather it improves EPS by shrinking the outstanding shares. If the fundamentals continue to improve, then the buyback will have been smart...if fundamentals deteriorate (see ADT last year) then what ever boost to demand the buyback creates will get washed away by the fundamentals. As a large long, I believe the fundamentals are now on a hockey stick improvement slope.

  • carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Jun 30, 2014 2:21 PM Flag

    POS is right...OLED is up over 22% in June while the market is up 2%...so listen closely to the guy who claims that there is only a 4% short position in the stock...he is just trying to give you "solid, legitimate, truly useful investing advice"

  • carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Jun 30, 2014 2:14 PM Flag

    don't confuse tax accrual with cash taxes paid...I am not an accountant, but I am pretty sure that FASB requires that you accrue an accurate tax liability incurred for the purposes of book income...but when it comes to tax income, that is where the NOLs start to kick in. BTW it also helps from the "expectation game" to be accruing for taxes, since you don't want analysts having way-off estimates because of taxes, nor do you want to have EPS growth to change dramatically once cash taxes are payable. If you want to follow how many $ a company actually paid in taxes, go to the cash flow statement and it will back out a line item something like "taxes accrued but not paid". In other words if a company creates a tax liability in a given year for GAAP purposes of say $40 million, but yet due to NOLs they don't pay any taxes, then the $40 million will show up on the cash flow statement. Its not exact, but I hope that helps...

  • carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Jun 27, 2014 4:32 PM Flag

    Carpenters...

  • carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Jun 27, 2014 4:22 PM Flag

    you are partly correct, but rebalancing occurs only at a price where the number of buyers and sellers (shares) match...so there is no way of knowing whether the "buyers" on close were index rebalance buyers or short cover-ers...as it is also possible that a fair amount of the sellers could be new short positions...

  • carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Jun 27, 2014 4:18 PM Flag

    I notice that you quote others, rather than quote the piece itself; clearly because you have no access to institutional research. If you want to prove that you have today's report, just tell me how many catalysts are cited on the first page and what the first word is for every catalyst...and BTW, if the OLED opinion was out there on June 13th, and now GS comes out with a piece dated June 26 then someone is going to jail...

  • carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Jun 27, 2014 4:00 PM Flag

    funny...when I read the GS report from the 13th I didn't see much meat there; and a $42 target, whereas today I see a relatively in-depth 14 page piece including some bullish scenarios that have them earning over $5 in 2016; and of course an upgraded PT to $44. and BTW I have been adding both shares and options this whole month because I could see all the little pieces coming together...but I am smart enough to not only know how to calculate a short interest ratio, but also to recognize the power of a Goldman Sachs opinion! I am not saying that upgrade and downgrades by wire house analysts are always correct (many times they are late) but I DO know that there are a lot of lemmings out there who listen to what they say, and act accordingly.

  • carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Jun 27, 2014 3:10 PM Flag

    not from these levels....you want the stock to run to $75 and THEN have someone put a 50% premium on it...sure as heck not $56!

  • carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Jun 27, 2014 3:01 PM Flag

    I see...so today's price movement has nothing to do with the fact that " Goldman, a long-time Universal Display (OLED +7.3%) bull, has issued another upbeat note: The firm sees a variety of upcoming mobile, TV, and wearables product launches boosting Universal's growth." (from a Seeking Alpha auto email that went out at 12:16 today.

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