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Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. Message Board

carne8ielaker 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 13, 2016 3:32 PM Member since: Jul 24, 2012
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  • carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Jan 13, 2016 3:32 PM Flag

    This was a very adroit purchase on Dyadic's part. In rough terms, prior to this announcement you had 40 million shares outstanding and cash on the balance sheet of about $1.85/share (perhaps closer to $1.90). Therefore, DYAI was able to buy shares for about 50 cents cheaper per share than the cash/share on the balance sheet or it is like buying a dollar bill for 73 cents. In other words, the share count as been reduced by over now we have about 38 million shares outstanding.

    Mgt (who own boucoup shares) has committed to a very lean licensing strategy...spending only about $4 million per year, much of which could be reimbursed by partners. The sizzle is that if C1 really works well for the pharma business (and early indications are very positive), then you are essentially buying a free call on that upside with cash providing firm downside protection. (you also get a free call on the potential legal settlement).

    As a PLATFORM company, these guys could conceivably get royalty payments on 10's if not 100's of drugs (if they are manufactured using c1). On the downside, if nothing transpires in the next 18 months or so, it is likely that they will sell they remaining pharma rights to someone (DD perhaps?) and then liquidate the company. If they stick to their promises, that liquidation value 18 months from now would still be higher than today's 1.65 stock price.

  • carne8ielaker by carne8ielaker Nov 19, 2015 2:21 PM Flag

    For all of the hand wringing that occurred after the $33 million write off (released after the market closed on August 6th) we are now over $3/share higher. Since OLED has been a (successful) playtoy of the shorts these past few years, I am sure that part of the reason the stock got down to $33 on October 1st was due to shorting, while at the same time, this recent move upwards has at least been partially fueled by short covering. But as Sid mentioned in today's Q&A, the market opportunity long term for OLED TVs is ginormous. He didn't overtly say that, but he DID mention that of the 235 million TVs projected to be sold in 2015, a mere 400-500 thousand of them will be OLED. That leaves some pretty solid market share opportunities going forward.

    While we may back fill a little in the days to come, it is also possible that Brian Lee (GS analyst) decides to reverse course and change his rating....after all, it will look pretty silly if everybody comes away from your OLED meeting thinking positive, and you (as the host) stay negative...

  • carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Nov 19, 2015 8:55 AM Flag

    Pure q& should be info filled

  • carne8ielaker by carne8ielaker Nov 15, 2015 9:56 PM Flag

    started out with 34.1 million shares outstanding..the '11 convert has a 1.28 strike price which creates 2.220 million shares. The '15 convert is also at 1.28 and creates 1.562 million shares.. the last convert has an exercise price of 1.48 which creates 2.579 million shares...before options and warrants I get 40.505 million shares. The straight debt is about $1.424 million (which will be paid off).

    Two things to remember...the value of C1 to the pharma industry could be worth a multiple of the DuPont deal. In addtion, the company is on record stating that they will spend about 3-4 million per year operating their licensing business (and $1 million of that is outsourced R&D which they should get back from prospective licensees. It is highly likely that Sanofi will sign a deal within the next year...$10 million up front and a 2% royalty...if the Sanofi vaccine is a $1 billion/year product, that translates into $20 million/year (NPV of ?) If they can sign 3 or 4 other pharma entities (Teva perhaps) per year (at a license fee of $10 million per) and then hope to see 2% royalties 3-5 years down the road...what is THAT business worth.

    And of course there is the prediction - GT settles for $20-25 million...

  • carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Nov 15, 2015 9:17 PM Flag

    some people would posit that the reason UDC reached $55 earlier this year was based on Apple euphoria - and it faded when it became apparent that it was not (yet) in the cards. There are so many investors/traders/Cramers of the world looking for the Apple derivative "play", that if this news could be confirmed, the euphoria would start yesterday...

  • carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Nov 15, 2015 9:11 PM Flag

    I am not a close follower of Apple, but I was under the impression that they NEVER had a sole source provider if a key component. Given that LG has been the major LCD supplier (and LG supplies the OLED screen for the watch) it would seem more plausible for Samsung to be another OLED supplier....on the other hand, Sammy's phone panel production has been running at high gear for years now, and LG doesn't even use UDC maybe this is merely a "short term" (ie for the first 3 years) exclusive supply relationship.

    ...interesting stuff nevertheless...

  • Reply to

    Samsung win CES 2016

    by qtmmnutcase Nov 12, 2015 5:13 AM
    carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Nov 12, 2015 7:51 AM Flag

    Hmmm....any common denominator here?

  • Reply to

    Apple/Gordon Kelly

    by jjflojack Nov 12, 2015 7:03 AM
    carne8ielaker carne8ielaker Nov 12, 2015 7:49 AM Flag


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