Sounds about right. Not much action in the short term.
But 12-18 months out, if economy China picks up (and take a lot at FXI - what a run!) there could be a turn around in oil demand.
This idea was floated by Stan Druckenmiller who was a head trader for Soros. He believes the comeback of China and oil to be 2 big surprises on the horizon.
Check out transcript of a speech he gave in the hedge fund community.
Marfi, can you explain to me the significance of what a "last wave five of primary three" means in terms that someone not versed in Eliot wave would understand.
Thanks a lot.
You can also call Charles Schwab and they can explain the foreign tax on A shares to you. I believe you don't want to own the A shares in a retirement account because you can't recoup the foreign tax credit. (if you're an American )
For me, it's easier to own B shares because I'm constantly buying more shares with the dividends and I get to keep and reinvest the whole amount more quickly.
Look, I wouldn't have been a buyer if I didn't think it would go up. It's just that your target of 100 seems overly optimistic in your time frame.
Gotta be patient in a stock like Shell. This isn't a quick trade for me.
The market definitely thinks Shell overpaid but still this could look very smart a few years out. Perhaps there was too much risk that XOM would swoop in and try to get the same assets. Hence the high bid.
Then again BG was down 30% so really the premium was 20% over what BG was trading at before its decline.
I think Van Buerden - a 30 year veteran of the company - knows what he's doing and can pull it off. At least I'm voting with my money that way.
Well that part about 100 in 2 years put a smile on my face - even if it was foolishness.
I think the CEO was right to be a first mover and go for the asset that fits best with Shell. If he overpaid, that is still better to have done that than not to have done something at all.
Going big gives Shell options. At the same time, it replenishes reserves, secures the dividend, and gives Shell a great position in natural gas.
Of course, it would have been nice to have paid less. But I think it shows how much they wanted to reposition themselves with this acquisition.
Cramer panned the deal and it's always a good idea to fade Cramer. Remember Lehman? I rest my case.
When you compare this yield to the rate on treasuries and corporate bonds it looks great. Also, there will be 25 billion spent on buybacks which will also support the stock at these levels.
I think it's great entry for a 3-5 year play.
And who knows - if Van Buerdan is correct, the price of oil could be back at 90 by 2019. I am happy I bought a boatload today.
I don't agree. This makes sense to me. Raymond James thinks there's value in it. It allows Shell to wait out any price decline in oil while paying dividends and doing buybacks.
I used up half of free cash today to buy. Still have a lot of cash but I just feel uncomfortable not being more fully invested and missing out on the dividends. (ex date is around May 16th or so I think)
So if it goes back down to the year's low but if it doesn't retreat that far at least I'm halfway in. I think of this as hedging my bets.
Besides, I never expect to but at the absolute low or sell at the absolute high. There's still money to be made at these low prices.
Even if the sanctions are lifted, they aren't going to be lifted in their entirety. It will be a gradual roll back because they need to keep some sanctions on in order to have leverage over Iran in case of a screw up.
For once I got in very close to lows. But I am have mistakenly bought this many, many times only to see it drift down.
I trimmed a position in another stock so I have plenty of dry powder. My plan is to buy more every time a new low is made.
We may have to wait but hey, I'm a long term player with a 5year outlook. So I reinvest the dividends and scoop up shares when they look cheap.
Agree. The dividend is safe at least for 2 years out and then the price of oil may be increasing by then.
I'm a fairly aggressive investor and I can afford to be patient so I am a buyer right at these prices.
Can it go lower? Maybe. But the dividend is too good to pass up.
On Feb 11th Zack's lowered its rating on GABUX to "STRONG SELL" category 5. In other words, GABUX has the lowest possible rating.
Ignore if you want but I'm just saying.......
Sentiment: Strong Sell