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The Blackstone Group L.P. Message Board

carolyn_novice 2711 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Feb 3, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Questions on short interest

    by simlogger Aug 26, 2014 9:29 PM
    carolyn_novice carolyn_novice 10 hours ago Flag

    Folks who own options sometime short, if stock goes up the option is exercised and stock is delivered. Also long-term and short term capital gains, based on tax rate.

    Institutions also short stock and dump before and around the date of option expiration. GS traders get 250,000 or more bonus.

    Derivatives written by big players, when stock was lower or higher price. It is long term option or leap.

    If stock makes a new high with very high volume then shorts cone into play, provided stock make gaps.

    GTAT is trading below new high so there is lot of overhead supply.

    Average daily volume is above 9,000,000 so it may take 10% move to cover the shorts. the company will take more than a few years before it makes money. By that time there are other research material which may effect price and demand.

    Always have a price and % you can afford to lose, and keep in mind it is material made in a factory. INTEL comes with new chip every year, but stock has lot of shorts and has not made a new high.

    Good luck!

    Sincerely,

    Carolyn Novice

  • carolyn_novice carolyn_novice 17 hours ago Flag

    I picked GTAT, for new AAPLE TV. Glass. I also have ST for all kind of sensor required. I will add SMCI more but it must trade above 25.50 for three days.

    Good luck!

    Sincerely,
    Carolyn Novice

  • Reply to

    Could laggards become leaders ABB 22.99

    by carolyn_novice Aug 26, 2014 11:04 AM
    carolyn_novice carolyn_novice 19 hours ago Flag

    Please see Aug 27, 2014 WSJ and there is a very good article on Germany's gamble on renewable energy.

    Also now Israel and Gaza is quiet, ABB should get back to work, building it. ABB should get good contracts.

    More latter I am watching SMCI ,TRN ,ST and GILD as well as GTAT.

    Good luck!

    Sincerely,

    Carolyn Novice

  • carolyn_novice carolyn_novice 19 hours ago Flag

    Could be pre Labor Day short covering, before long weekend, and then to the beach. So far the trading activity is more like accumulation. There is no rush to take it up 25 cents, on 20,000 shares of buying and then slowly distribution of 100,000 shares, in the past few weeks.

    SMCI is still holding at 25.22, with 145,830 shares. Will it go above 25.28 and the volume pick up?

    Good luck!

    Sincerely,

    Carolyn Novice

    Sentiment: Buy

  • SMCI went down while market moved to new high, now the market seems to consolidate, could it be SMCI is ready to move higher?

    Volume very respectable,

    25.00 ….24.70….25.00…. Volume 42,500

    These are good signs that institutional are active. We need to see more than 200,000 volumes by noon. Folks in California are just getting up. I have not seem 1500 or 2500 bid volume.

    Good luck!

    Sincerely,

    Carolyn Novice

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Volatility is the difference between the weekly high and low

    Weekly----------High---------- Low----------Volatility ----------Avg 10 week Volatility
    2-Jun ---------- 22.06 ----------20.82 ----------1.24 ---------- 1.85
    9-Jun ---------- 23.12 ----------21.76 ---------- 1.36 ---------- 1.89
    16-Jun ---------- 26.80 ----------23.11 ---------- 3.69 ---------- 2.08
    23-Jun ---------- 26.25 ----------24.57 ---------- 1.68 ---------- 2.09
    30-Jun ---------- 26.02 ----------24.61 ---------- 1.41 ---------- 1.81
    14-Jul ---------- 25.46 ----------24.09 ---------- 1.37 ---------- 1.79
    21-Jul ---------- 27.28 ----------24.74 ---------- 2.54 ---------- 1.83
    28-Jul ---------- 26.76 ----------24.64 ---------- 2.12 ---------- 1.78
    4-Aug ---------- 26.98 ----------23.35 ---------- 3.63 ---------- 1.98
    11-Aug---------- 25.87---------- 24.12 ---------- 1.75 ---------- 2.08
    18-Aug---------- 26.05---------- 24.14 ---------- 1.91 ---------- 2.15
    25-Aug---------- 25.23---------- 24.50 ---------- 0.73 ---------

    1. For the week started on August 25, 2014 so far volatility is only 0.73
    2. Since Aug 4, 2014 the low 23.35…..24.12….24.14….24.50 is moving higher
    3. For this week we could go back 24.15 and still be higher lows
    4. If 24.15 holds we can expect stock above last weeks 26.05

    We are coming closer to breakout below 24.14, which becomes very risky, holding above 24.14 means stock must move higher above $26 based on volatility

    Any move above or below with daily volume exceeding Average Daily Volume above 400,000 will give us green light.

    Good luck!

    Sincerely,

    Carolyn Novice

  • Reply to

    Low Volume No Trend Could Surprise SMCI 24.76

    by carolyn_novice Aug 26, 2014 10:38 AM
    carolyn_novice carolyn_novice Aug 26, 2014 4:00 PM Flag

    The ony difference this time we had very good earning, and future guidance. That is why small investors either bought or did not sell it. By now buyers and sellers tug of war should be over. But near the close daily gains vanishes. Next day strong opening followed by selling, same old trend. One of these days we will get heavy volume and change in down trend will begin. We could get after the Labor Day.

    Today there were no sale around noon for six minutes with bid 24.59...24.60...

    Good luck!

    Sincerely,

    Carolyn Novice

  • Reply to

    Low Volume No Trend Could Surprise SMCI 24.76

    by carolyn_novice Aug 26, 2014 10:38 AM
    carolyn_novice carolyn_novice Aug 26, 2014 1:05 PM Flag

    It does participate on the upside with the market, there is only other option, and you are right. I am afraid to jump in until it is all resolved. I still have a small amount to keep me still interested.

    Good luck!

    Sincerely,
    Carolyn Novice

  • 1. Please see ABB on YouTube.
    2. After long decline and do nothing, it is first time showing strength, price 23 is the highest in 10 days.
    3. Is Distribution is over?
    4. Next few days higher volume and price could be the beginning of accumulation.
    5. It is Swiss GE, and has lot of consolidation going on.
    6. Nearly everyone had a sell order, who is left to sell?
    7. Time to watch the Volume increase as first sign of progress
    8. Price move of more than 20 cents will give momentum
    9. Follow through of few days up is what gives bullish sign
    10. How about if everyone says sell, and stock moves up?

    What are the consequences of buying when everyone is selling?

    Good luck!

    Sincerely,

    Carolyn Novice

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Traders are getting tired watching SMCI move close to $25 and then trend down. It could be close to a surprise down or up one way or the other.

    Volume in high so far and there are some nice bids by other than traders.

    24.82….24.54….24.76……57,904

    Good luck!

    Sincerely,

    Carolyn Novice

  • Reply to

    New 52 week high

    by wvwvwv12399 Aug 21, 2014 11:47 AM
    carolyn_novice carolyn_novice Aug 25, 2014 3:17 PM Flag

    There are 160 new highs today, generally market leaders which make new high with the market have long way to move higer. Even though it has moved more than expected, still there is lack of profit taking. There are enough shorts, but so far it looks like it is all quiet on the Western Front. We need some gaps up to confirm shorts are now trying to undo what everyone is telling, a 10% correction any time.

    I will hold till Labor Day, to see if there is a blow off or consolidation at these levels.

    Good luck!

    Sincerely,

    Carolyn Novice

    Sentiment: Buy

  • carolyn_novice by carolyn_novice Aug 25, 2014 11:10 AM Flag

    Very low volume 80,000….25.23….24.79…..25.15

    It is very over sold, and after crossing 25, it has backed down number of times. Only thing we have the volume is better than average, there are some trades of 1500 shares and bids of 500, which shows some interest by new players

    With market making new high SMCI has been a laggard.

    Will it create a turn around situation, which is what we need to be concentrating and doing our research?

    We will know after noon and closing if this is genuine rally. As of now there is no indication of short covering. If short covering rally then bids should increase and offers should increase after every move of 25 cents.

    Good luck!

    Sincerely,

    Carolyn Novice

  • Today’s news may help after SMCI has been in an over sold conditions, let us observe the volume if it expands, and price trickles up.

    Avago Demonstrates Virtual Hybrid Cloud in Collaboration With Supermicro and VMware at VMworld 2014

    VMware Virtual SAN Enables New Tier of High Performance, Elastic Hypervisor-Converged Storage

    Please read on the other side, some time collaboration can result in mergers pr buy outs.

    Good luck!

    Sincerely,

    Carolyn Novice

  • carolyn_novice carolyn_novice Aug 24, 2014 8:55 PM Flag

    There are lot of Option holders, it will change the GREEDY picture at the opening. The same is true for Biotech mutual funds holding millions of shares.

    Good luck!

    Sincerely,
    Carolyn Novice

  • California Earthquake could be WSJ headlines, but for ……Big story will also be ITMN.

    Question for all, where will the sellers of ITMN stock and options, invest their funds?

    Fidelity Select Biotechnology (FBIOX)

    Total assets….. 8.22B

    Security…………………………………….. Net Assets
    1. Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)…………………… 12.97%
    2. Biogen Idec Inc (BIIB)……………………………….. 5.29%
    3. Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)….. ………………………5.01%
    4. Amgen Inc (AMGN)….. …………………………………………4.74%
    5. Intercept Pharmaceuticals Inc (ICPT) …………………………..3.18%
    6. InterMune Inc (ITMN)…………………………………………………….. 2.70%

    6. Security ……..InterMune Inc

    Portfolio Weight % = 2.70
    Shares Owned = 5,286,810

    Short interest
    Settlement Date…. Short Interest ….. Avg Daily Share…… Days To Cover
    7/31/2014……. .. 9,575,169 …….. … 1,796,186 …………. 5.330834

    Will be interesting preopening, and opening on Monday, August 25, 2014

    Options expired on August 22, 2014 had no clues, but he new options coming tomorrow will have heavy volume.

    Good luck!

    Sincerely,

    Carolyn Novice

  • Reply to

    Director sells 14,000 Shares SMCI 24.55

    by carolyn_novice Aug 22, 2014 7:06 PM
    carolyn_novice carolyn_novice Aug 23, 2014 10:00 AM Flag

    Stock closed at 24.55, please read the message in detail, I simply took the information received from the company.

    Sincerely,

    Carolyn Novice

  • I got this from an email to stockholders at 6:00pm

    Tsai Hwei-Ming Fred Super Micro Computer, Inc. [ SMCI ] Director

    ………………………………Shares sold…………….Securities left ….. Sold
    Common Stock ….8/20/2014…..5000…D….$25.70 ……301,000 ……..$128,500.00
    Common Stock …..8/21/2014…..5000…D….$25.15…. .296,000 ………$125,750.00
    Common Stock ….8/22/2014……4000….D…$24.70 …..292,000……….$98,800.00
    Total sale……………………. $353,050.00

    5. Amount of Securities Beneficially Owned Following Reported Transaction(s)
    (Instr. 3 and 4)

    4. Securities Acquired (A) or Disposed of (D)
    Explanation of Responses:

    The reported sale was effected pursuant to a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted by the Reporting Person on February 6, 2014.

    Reporting Owners, Reporting Owner Name / Address
    Relationships, Director …..10% Owner …..Officer

    Tsai Hwei-Ming Fred
    SUPER MICRO COMPUTER, INC.
    980 ROCK AVE
    SAN JOSE, CA 95131

    Signatures
    /s/Howard Hideshima, Attorney-In-Fact
    Date 8/22/2014
    ** Signature of Reporting Person

    Sincerely,

    Carolyn Novice

  • Reply to

    Buying

    by ramilapatel83 Aug 22, 2014 2:54 PM
    carolyn_novice carolyn_novice Aug 22, 2014 3:52 PM Flag

    Please see Major Holders Under the message, your buying and selling only has the impact on your research and portfolio.

    When major holders decide to load or unload a few thousand shares of this stock, the volatility increases.

    This stock should only be bought for long-term with research. As of now there are more sellers than buyer, and stock is under performing.

    Last few minutes low volume up or down has no significance.

    Pew need to see daily volume and price increase for at least three days, to say the trend may have changed.

    Good luck!

    Sincerely,

    Carolyn Novice

  • Reply to

    Time to buy or add

    by ramilapatel83 Aug 21, 2014 9:27 AM
    carolyn_novice carolyn_novice Aug 21, 2014 3:49 PM Flag

    Aug 26, 2014 around 10:10 am there is a conference and you can call and ask a question. It will be very helpful. Also MM do not sit around watching SMCI stock, they have more than 20 stocks to worry about. But knowing if a institution is willing to buy or sell, they can work to increase or reduce the inventory. After the earning we all expected SMCI to explode, but someone decided to sell when there was demand.

    Will the same group buy or sell at lower price, I leave up to you to figure out.

    Very busy trading.

    Sincerely,
    Carolyn Novice

  • Reply to

    This stock is manipulated by the MM's short term.

    by oritm123 Aug 21, 2014 12:30 PM
    carolyn_novice carolyn_novice Aug 21, 2014 3:20 PM Flag

    After the close put a sell order for 500 shares 25 cents to 50 cents higher. MM is not willing to buy or sell for one hour, why will he or she change their mind. It is computer balancing act between buy and sell. A few times I was able to sell SMCI more than $1.25 higher for 1500 shares, I was thinking of just 25 cents, but made a mistake, but someone else also made the mistake. Next day stock opened 12 cents lower on 1800 shares.

    MM will bring the price higher or lower where there some buyer or sellers. He can give you from inventory like today 2500 shares around 25.16. But then stock went down to fill his inventory,

    Sincerely,

    Carolyn Novice

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