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carrix_fool 60 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: May 14, 2005
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  • Reply to

    What must happen on AD ?

    by henryzxu 11 hours ago
    carrix_fool carrix_fool 11 hours ago Flag

    That's a reasonable expectation going into AD.

    If both happens, then I'd like to see:

    1. the response curve of 3/4 mg. Is it steeper than 11/2mg? If so, this will mean escalating response curve as management has alluded to and will be very positive going into multi-dose study. I give this 80% probability.

    2. Which subgroup of chimps reached FC. I think the most likely outcome is ARC520+NUC will show FC with doses every 4 weeks. I give this 60% odds. I think there is 30% odds that it will take ARC520+NUC+IFN to get to FC with the same dose schedule. If they hit it out of the park with ARC520 alone to get to FC, then it's fireworks for all longs. I give this 10%.

    GLTA.

  • carrix_fool carrix_fool Aug 28, 2015 7:47 PM Flag

    tene,

    You are twisting what I said.

    I fully expect great P2a data and seminal chimp data. They simply didn't have time to show show extraordinary human trial results. FC will require multi-dose. The 9 chimps have had multi-dose regimes for 12-months. If ARC-520 is effective, then chimp data will show FC. Chimp data will show the market what's to come in human trials in the 12-18 months to come. P2a 3/4mg will show dose response above and beyond what 1 and 2 shows. That's good enough for me.

    Market is always forward looking. If a great crystal ball(chimp data) tells you 12-18 months ahead how human trials(multi-dose after 12-month) will read out, then the market will discount that right away and increase the market cap accordingly.

    GLTA.

  • carrix_fool carrix_fool Aug 28, 2015 6:51 PM Flag

    tene,

    You are kidding, right? FC in chimp has not been achieved by any investigational drugs at this time. If ARC-520 shows FC in chimps, this will be a seminal finding, whether it is by itself or in combo w/ NUCs and or IFN.

    No other investigational hepB drugs will get to test in chimps from this point on due to recently passed stricter laws. Not being able to test on chimps will add months if not years to any drug discovery programs at ABUS, GILD, ALNY, you name it.

    If we see an entire subgroup of chimps getting FC, then the same drug combo will cause FC in humans. It's a matter of when not IF.

    At this time, the market is questioning IF ARC-520 can be effective in treating HepB, if teh question turns into WHEN, then the market cap needs to go up several fold to reflect that.

    GLTA.

  • carrix_fool carrix_fool Aug 28, 2015 4:32 PM Flag

    It depends on the data. If ARC-520 alone renders FC, $30 instantly, and it will still have a long way to go until MC reaches $5B.

  • carrix_fool carrix_fool Aug 28, 2015 4:12 PM Flag

    If any of the subgroup chimps show FC, then the price will get back to $15 instantly. If the subgroup with ARC-520 alone shows FC, then we will see $30 or more instantly.

  • Reply to

    chances of licensing DPC to other companies

    by mr_red_rover Aug 27, 2015 1:33 PM
    carrix_fool carrix_fool Aug 27, 2015 3:58 PM Flag

    red,

    ARWR already licensed DPC to ALNY for their 5x15 target. The licensing cost was not disclosed.

    GLTA.

  • Reply to

    Does ARWR know or not...

    by onlytruthsayer Aug 9, 2015 2:14 PM
    carrix_fool carrix_fool Aug 9, 2015 10:10 PM Flag

    I strongly disagree. AD is a binary event, it either totally vindicates the management or decimate them. If mgmt is vindicated, then at the minimum, the price will get back to pre-Oct,8,2014 level to $15 and possibly much much higher. If the data disappoints, then the price will fall to $5 and stay there for another 6 months.

  • Reply to

    Does ARWR know or not...

    by onlytruthsayer Aug 9, 2015 2:14 PM
    carrix_fool carrix_fool Aug 9, 2015 10:05 PM Flag

    Well, when the underlying takes a hit, all call options will take a hit as well. $7 has a very high delta, so it will take a bigger hit than other low delta strikes such as $9, $10s.

  • Reply to

    Does ARWR know or not...

    by onlytruthsayer Aug 9, 2015 2:14 PM
    carrix_fool carrix_fool Aug 9, 2015 7:09 PM Flag

    Yes, ARWR absolutely knows the result of P2a 3 and 4mg/kg results by now even when the data is officially "blinded". For them to show such confidence in the CC and the fact that they went out of their way to host the meeting in NYC, there is only one explanation: 3 and 4mg/kg data meets their internal expectation. Of course, they have much more exciting news to share about the 9 chimp FC data. Yes, I did say FC.

    It's quite easy to see the KD in p2a as control group will not show any KD, period. The late biotech slaughter is a a blessing in disguise. If you don't have a full position yet, time to pick up Oct calls. They are ridiculously cheap. They are the best deal, even better than my Dec and Jan calls as I had to pay for a lot of time value.

    Market has misread the ARWR situation so badly now I rank this as one of the top 3 biotech bargains of 2015. $ESPR and $SRPT will be the other 2, IMHO.

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    Back to where we were

    by henryzxu Aug 7, 2015 3:03 PM
    carrix_fool carrix_fool Aug 7, 2015 3:07 PM Flag

    henry,

    Stop the BS. ARWR went down because the entire bioland is being slaughtered. I'm giddy like a 3-year old buying up BLUE, SRPT, ESPR. All will go up 50% by year end.

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    Am I Missing Something?

    by qbeing1010 Aug 5, 2015 7:26 PM
    carrix_fool carrix_fool Aug 5, 2015 8:14 PM Flag

    q,

    There are many ways this can go wrong. The field of biotech is littered with companies who had good science but couldn't manage their business. Science alone is not enough to survive and thrive in biotech. I will give some potential reasons ARWR can go in flames:

    1. new SAEs in any of the new trials
    2. IP challenges from other parties
    3. poor cash management causing capital raises at inopportune times

    The above apply to any and all small biotechs, not unique to ARWR. Take a look at ARNA, MNKD, DNDN, HGSI, DECODE GENETICS, they all have/had great science but look where they are.

    It's incredibly hard to be successful in biotech. The odds are against investors especially when market cap is

  • Reply to

    How is it possible

    by jackbauer24hour Aug 5, 2015 7:39 PM
    carrix_fool carrix_fool Aug 5, 2015 8:06 PM Flag

    jack,

    The simple answer is TKMR(ABUS) has a team of scientists who used to work in Pharmasette's HCV team. So it's a credibility issue.

    GLTY

  • Reply to

    I think I know what the 3 cohorts are.

    by carrix_fool May 12, 2015 12:43 AM
    carrix_fool carrix_fool Aug 4, 2015 7:27 PM Flag

    Have not listened to teh CC myself, but sounds like hparch confirmed my guess?

  • Reply to

    Got more Dec $7 calls

    by carrix_fool Aug 3, 2015 3:18 PM
    carrix_fool carrix_fool Aug 4, 2015 4:40 PM Flag

    henry,

    "A delay of AD looks like a sure thing", now you should have realized that was FEAR working in you. The fear in you caused you to reach a conclusion that's not based on rationality but pure human emotion.

    IMO, FEAR will be working for longs soon. This time, it's the FEAR of missing out. I suspect we will see some type of run-up: the elements for a run-up are all hear: a high impact binary event with a set date.

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    Got more Dec $7 calls

    by carrix_fool Aug 3, 2015 3:18 PM
    carrix_fool carrix_fool Aug 4, 2015 1:36 PM Flag

    henry,

    I agree, shorts are not stupid and they are smart and more cunning than longs. And if AD delay is a sure thing, wouldn't they spike the price and then short to make more money? Why would they depress the price to induce more people to sell? Hmm, could it be they are indeed cunning and are harvesting stops and are actually buying?

    GLTY.

  • Reply to

    Got more Dec $7 calls

    by carrix_fool Aug 3, 2015 3:18 PM
    carrix_fool carrix_fool Aug 3, 2015 6:59 PM Flag

    Haha, if you ask other longs, they probably will question why my target is so low. LOL

    Anyways, to get to $15, I expect something seminal from the mgmt, such as a clear path to reach FC, either as mono-therapy or in a combo.

  • Reply to

    Got more Dec $7 calls

    by carrix_fool Aug 3, 2015 3:18 PM
    carrix_fool carrix_fool Aug 3, 2015 6:58 PM Flag

    In that case, my apologies. GLTY

  • Reply to

    Got more Dec $7 calls

    by carrix_fool Aug 3, 2015 3:18 PM
    carrix_fool carrix_fool Aug 3, 2015 6:14 PM Flag

    jack,

    You are preaching to the choir.

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    Got more Dec $7 calls

    by carrix_fool Aug 3, 2015 3:18 PM
    carrix_fool carrix_fool Aug 3, 2015 6:13 PM Flag

    post,

    Were you the one that said you had a standing order to buy 20000 contracts of Jan $7 call for $1.45 and couldn't? Where have you been? OI is only 3549 and last trade is $1.15.

    The BS I read on this board! LOL

  • Reply to

    Got more Dec $7 calls

    by carrix_fool Aug 3, 2015 3:18 PM
    carrix_fool carrix_fool Aug 3, 2015 5:21 PM Flag

    henry,

    The CC probably will not have any substance, one way or the other. Therefore, shorts are not afraid. And if history is any guidance, then yes, I say shorts expects a certain odds that mgmt will delay the results in some form. Make no mistake: if mgmt does delay, however slightly(say from Sept to Oct), however plausible(cohort 5 is late to full dosing), the price will get pummeled again in short-term.

    So it's actually easy to be a short in the stock, because the trend is your friend now. I can even argue the management is your friend now based on their past behavior. So it doesn't take a genius to be short.

    On the flip side, it's extremely hard to be a long right now. It take a stomach of steel to absorb blow after blow. You have to be thoroughly convinced that your pain will pay off based on the science we know so far. Not easy at all.

    So what do we know? Well, much have been said about the science. So I don't wan't to repeat most of that. However, I want to emphasize one thing and one thing only. We know ARC-520 is exhibiting appropriate dose-response in 1 and 2mg/kg. Do you think the dose response will continue into 3 and 4mg/kg? Does the preponderance of evidence support that thesis? If it does, will that support a $300MM market cap? And that's exactly how think about the AD result. I'm only concentrating on this one thing and everything else is just gravy.

    So IMO, shorting the stock is actually the easy trade; staying long is the hard trade. History taught us easy trades are typically not profitable.

    Regardless, ARWR is an extremely speculative stock and you have to make sure you size your trade accordingly. In another words, don't gamble with what you can't afford to lose. I laugh at posters who say they have 50000 shares in ARWR. That's insane. Unless you have a liquid asset of over $10 mil, yo have no business investing $300k in a spec biotech.

    GLTA

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