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Lululemon Athletica Inc. Message Board

cascademtnclimber 17 posts  |  Last Activity: May 14, 2014 11:40 AM Member since: Feb 25, 2003
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  • Reply to

    buses!!

    by helcopter May 12, 2014 9:09 PM
    cascademtnclimber cascademtnclimber May 14, 2014 11:40 AM Flag

    But these all electric buses and taxis don't use ultracapacitors unfortunately.

  • cascademtnclimber cascademtnclimber May 13, 2014 12:46 PM Flag

    Bend is in Oregon. I live 5-6 hours north in WA state. Bend is beautiful too, though.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cascademtnclimber by cascademtnclimber May 13, 2014 12:43 PM Flag

    If I were the CEO of Kandi, I would emulate certain things that Elon Musk does. After all, the Chinese are well known for copying...not necessarily for innovation (USA! USA!). So why not emulate the most followed CEO of them all in this space?

    I would consider putting out a longer quarterly shareholder letter that updates shareholders on the company's growth as Elon Musk does. It would be separate than what is released with his quarterly results. Something released concurrent with the quarterly report. I would suggest him consider showing things like the car sharing network on a map on Kandi's (or other) website. It's pretty simple to do and investors could get a feel for the growth potential of this car sharing concept. Finally, investors should consider contacting/donating to Aaron Rockett to send him back to China for a follow up high quality documentary/update. It would be like having our own research analyst on the ground over there. Basically you can send Aaron a bunch of questions and comments/suggestions to the CEO and have Aaron document Kandi's growth on video. It would be interesting to send him back every 6-8 months to follow Kandi's growth. He does have a way to donate to him via Paypal on his website. I have no clue what he has collected to date or how much more he requires, but it seems like a very cheap way to get in depth research. And I'd add it's been 6 months since his documentary was released so I assume its been 7-8 months since he filmed it.

    Finally, this is a side subject...it looks as if KNDI is backfilling this $12 - $13.50 area. Which is good technically. Before, it had pretty solid support in the mid $11's during horrific overall stock market days. As long as the trend of KNDI's support level keeps rising, that is bullish chartwise imo. And $40 mil revenue in the slowest quarter is extremely bullish, imo, fundamentally. When the chart and fundamentals come together, it has been my experience that it is a great time to buy and hold.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cascademtnclimber cascademtnclimber May 13, 2014 12:07 PM Flag

    Thank you. And yes, central WA state by the....Cascade range!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cascademtnclimber cascademtnclimber May 13, 2014 11:14 AM Flag

    Gotcha. Well what I think the VC or JV should do is do what Tesla has done in regards to its superchargers. Show a google map of Hangzhou (eventually other cities) and plot a dot to show where on the map after they complete a "vending machine". And possibly partial dots as to locations where they are building, but are not completed yet.

    It was/is fun to watch the Tesla Supercharger stations grow and "light up" for service. The same would be true for these ecar vending machines as they come online.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I've watched KNDI for awhile now but decided to take the plunge yesterday due to the revenue picture. The CEO said this is the slowest quarter of the year. The slowest quarter is producing $40 million in revenue. So, KNDI reported $94.5 million in all of 2013, and Q1 2014 produced $40mil in one quarter. It's slowest. Now a smart trader, or investor, can easily extrapolate what that means for the rest of this year. KNDI should exceed $250 million in revenue for 2014. And what are traders going to do before

    The people who are comparing KNDI to TSLA are simply preposterous. TSLA makes a best in breed car and is expanding worldwide, KNDI does no such thing and is in a completely different segment. KNDI is focusing mostly on small electric car rental/swap. KNDI, being in China, gets huge state subsidies, is partnered with respected manufacturer Geely, and is starting to expand into other large cities. They are building out many of these ecar vending machines...and this is how they compare to Tesla in that way. While Tesla builds out its superchargers for quick charging, KNDI is doing the same with its "vending machines" to give greater access to potential customers to make it easy to rent and return vehicles.

    I am buying KNDI because they are not just focusing on one large China city....but expanding to other large cities. So of course when you SPEND money to build and grow these vending machines with cars in them, you take a short term loss in order to reap a big time gain later on. Due to the rapid rate of revenue growth, the model is apparently working and working well.

    I'd suggest that people watch the very good you tube video called The Kandi Machine.

    By the way, I believe the next catalyst to this stock moving higher is an analyst initiating coverage of the company. The partnership with Geely should be enough but anything that lends street credibility to this model of car sharing would be a big boon to this company's credibility going forward. Good Luck!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • When it popped on the earnings the other day, I thought the stock price got a little ahead of itself and so I sold shares in the mid $16's. And true to form, today we have seen MXWL likes to backfill in the chart before going higher. Before earnings where I thought $13.50 was the backstop, I now think it's $14.50- $14.80. The measurement has moved for several reasons. Stronger than expected earnings just reported, so that's out of the way. Revenue guidance for the current quarter, so that's out of the way. New CEO finally hired, so that's out of the way. Analyst upgrades which I normally don't give a care to what their price targets are, but I do care when they all seem to become more positive (neutral to buy, or increase their price target).

    And the biggest backstop of them all....is this exchange on the conference call about a large automotive contract:

    "Right, but what I'm asking specifically is just on when the actual design win occurs?"

    "I mean we are very confident it will happen this year. We are way past the RFQ stage. We've had lots of verbal discussions on it. We are in the process of doing the final...dotting the I's and crossing the T's, in essence going through their final checklist before they can grant us the award."

    Now on top of this, the chart of MXWL just backfilled by "filled the gap" created from before earnings release until after the earnings release. And it did so as I'm typing. And when it does that and then marches higher than where it filled in (low is currently 14.97, currently trading $15.20, that's technically considered very bullish if it closes above the gap level. Also, this is being done on extremely low volume...meaning MXWL is dropping in price even though there isn't strong conviction by traders to run to the exits. Strong volume while the price is dropping would be ominous. But weak volume tells me MM's want cheap shares.

    So, I decided to buyback or re-purchase shares of MXWL in the low $15's here.

    Good Luck!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Maxwell and Tesla?

    by cascademtnclimber May 5, 2014 12:51 PM
    cascademtnclimber cascademtnclimber May 6, 2014 1:48 AM Flag

    Going to make it easier. Just google "Findings at Supercapacitors USA 2013" and its the first google provided link.

  • Reply to

    Maxwell and Tesla?

    by cascademtnclimber May 5, 2014 12:51 PM
    cascademtnclimber cascademtnclimber May 6, 2014 1:40 AM Flag

    Google "idtechex november 2013" And hit the second link down that says "Supercapacitors USA 2014 LIVE NEWS FEED"

    Then scroll down, after hitting that link to the date of Dec 6 2013 that says "Findings of Supercapacitors USA 2013"

    And the second paragraph talks about what Maxwell presented regarding battery degradation decreasing by a factor of 2 in plug in hybrids.

  • Reply to

    Offshore wind

    by cascademtnclimber May 5, 2014 5:29 PM
    cascademtnclimber cascademtnclimber May 5, 2014 5:32 PM Flag

    Offshore wind power is set to grow six-fold by 2020, benefiting turbine makers including Vestas Wind Systems (VWDRY, VWSYF) and Gamesa Tecnologica (GCTAF), HSBC says.
    Total global installed capacity of wind turbines at sea is forecast to rise to 43 gw by 2020 from 6.5 gw at the end of 2013, with the U.K., China and Germany the biggest offshore wind markets, according to HSBC.
    The opportunity for manufacturers justifies a strategic long-term focus on the offshore segment, the firm advises; after 2015, “the rapid growth in offshore installations becomes a key to driving growth in wind technology."

  • Reply to

    Offshore wind

    by cascademtnclimber May 5, 2014 5:29 PM
    cascademtnclimber cascademtnclimber May 5, 2014 5:30 PM Flag

    From CC:

    "Ultracapacitor sales in the wind pitch-control systems continue to gain momentum as we are seeing early production ramp of our 2013 design win. We remain excited about our growth prospects for offshore turbine requiring high power and low maintenance ultracapacitors."

  • cascademtnclimber by cascademtnclimber May 5, 2014 5:29 PM Flag

    From the CC:

    "New design wins that transports large offshore turbine and our customers' continuing to take share are why we are confident we will continue to increase our share in the wind pitch-control market."

    From HSBC this past week:

    "Turbine companies to benefit from six-fold growth in offshore wind, says HSBC

    Offshore wind capacity will grow six-fold over the remainder of the decade, in a trend that is set to boost the value of three turbine manufacturers, according to new research by HSBC."

    Not just the turbine manufacturers....but UCAPS that are in them for maintenance free pitch control.

  • Reply to

    Maxwell and Tesla?

    by cascademtnclimber May 5, 2014 12:51 PM
    cascademtnclimber cascademtnclimber May 5, 2014 2:35 PM Flag

    Ugh. I hate when Yahoo doesn't allow copy/paste. Anyway, what I thought I had posted was something interesting from the IDTECHEX November 2013 conference. Do a google search and you'll find it.

    Basically Maxwell said Argonne national labs and Rochester Institute of technology showed that Ultracaps in a plug in hybrid lab setting showed that cycle battery degradation decreased by a factor of 2 and impedance degradation decreased by a factor of 6. So basically Ultracaps decrease the total ownership of a car because they INCREASE the lifetime of the vehicle's battery pack by a factor of TWO. That is HUGE people.

    Now it's not a hybrid, but Tesla's model S all electric car I believe has a battery pack warranty for 8 years. What if Tesla could make that warranty 10, 12, or 15 years by simply adding ultracaps to the mix? How quickly does that add resell value to the vehicle? You already have a vehicle with almost no maintenance....but now you don't have to worry about the battery replacement either? That's huge in my opinion. And I can see Elon Musk, and others offering electrics and plug-in's, seeing the huge value proposition Ultracaps offer.

    I agree that a Big 3 Auto would be a bigger deal simply because they can produce cars faster than Tesla can currently. And start/stop would be just fine vs regenerative braking/acceleration function. But traders/investors believe Elon Musk is on the cutting edge of technology....so if HE starts using ultracaps, everyone is going to pay attention. I believe you could get a 5 point pop from a Big auto 3 company contract. But with a Tesla contract? 10 points minimum. Because Tesla traders are looking for any other way to play Tesla's success. And it's a lot easier to move a stock like MXWL with a fraction of the shares TSLA and has at a fraction of the $215 TSLA stock price and trading float. Good Luck!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Maxwell and Tesla?

    by cascademtnclimber May 5, 2014 12:51 PM
    cascademtnclimber cascademtnclimber May 5, 2014 2:19 PM Flag

    So it will be interesting if the first contract is a start/stop or a regenerative braking/acceleration application for automotive.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • cascademtnclimber by cascademtnclimber May 5, 2014 12:51 PM Flag

    Another thing is that there had been speculation that Tesla was the company Maxwell was going to announce in an automotive win. Maxwell said what they were working on was for a 2016 model that would start to be built in July 2015. Here's the problem. That build date does not match with either of Tesla's new vehicles coming out.

    The Tesla model X will start being built before July 2015...earlier in the spring. The Tesla model E won't be built until 2016. As much as I'd like to hear they are going into a Tesla vehicle, I just don't see it happening based on a July 2015 delivery time for a 2016 model vehicle as the COO stated.

  • cascademtnclimber cascademtnclimber May 5, 2014 12:41 PM Flag

    Also wanted to add, Maxwell was asked about why their inventory was building up.

    "And then in terms of the inventory I know it came down a bit in terms of days on hand, but it's still that you guys are holding a significant amount of inventory." and the response:

    "Well yes we did build up inventory to support initially the China plug-in hybrid bus ramp and potentially a diesel hybrid bus subsidy. So we burnt through some of that inventory but we still have more inventory on hand to support any rapid change in demand"

    The key is...what if there is simply steady demand (because Q2 rev is supposed to be the same as Q1revenue as stated on the CC) and not a rapid change in up demand?

    This is why getting more wind/auto contracts are key. So that China Bus demand (and the contracing China manufacturing) isn't impacting overall ultracap revenue to such a high degree (currently 41% of revs). What I'd like to see is 30% from bus, 25% from auto and 25% from wind.

  • Even though MXWL was bullish on car applications for Ultracaps in 2014, what Ive been focused on is how management has been, imo, reducing expectations in China buses recently. They weren't quite as bullish as they had been in investment conferences from Feb. And that worries me because of all the Maxwell Ultracap revenue, the majority of it, or 41% percent comes from China buses. While only 16% comes from cars.

    These CC statements worried me the most in the near term:

    "Therefore, we continue to be cautious about the near term ramp while fully prepared for the long-term market adoption of plug-in hybrid buses."

    "the china bus market provides only a small window of firm backlog therefore our visibility into solid demand remains very limited during this early stage and a plug-in hybrid bus ramp."

    Also on the revenue front, no big surprises for Q2: "As stated in today's press release based on current customer flow and orders we expect revenue for the second quarter of 2014 to be similar to the revenue reported in the first quarter of 2014."

    The manufacturing index has been contracting in China for the last 4 months. (latest report out tonight...Asia markets lower). So just keep that in mind. If China manufacturing continues to contract in size in successive months, I worry how that might affect Maxwell revenue forecasts going forward since the largest source of Maxwell revenue is China buses.

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