I'm impressed with Andrew Fein, H.C. Wainright
Has a conservative target of $4
Lays out his argument for valuation and concludes:
"The Court also noted that PIP is entitled to “pre and post-judgement interest at the legal rate, compounded quarterly.” We understand this presumed interest rate to be equal to approximately 11.25%. When all of these assumptions are taken in totality, we believe the lump sum payment to PIP has the potential to near $350M, or in excess of $6/share.”
*not sure about his 11.25% interest rate, I am sure the interest rate is going to be painful and Siga shareholders (including Perelman) want the bad faith penalty they are paying to cease. Shouldn't be long folks.
(pay prejudgment interest)
Parson's telling Siga to think hard about appealing on the bad faith the Supreme Court and he agree upon.
June 30, 2014
Cash and cash equivalents $99,029,327
Total current assets.............$129,734,471
The Company received approximately $15.3 million for the delivery and acceptance in July of 115,000 courses.
By Jen Christensen, CNN
updated 3:07 PM EDT, Fri July 11, 2014
(CNN) -- At least two of the vials employees at the National Institutes of Health found in an unused storage room earlier this month contain viable samples of the deadly smallpox virus, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday.
Employees found six forgotten vials when they were preparing to move a lab from the Food and Drug Administration's Bethesda, Maryland, campus to a different location. The laboratory had been used by the NIH but was transferred to the FDA in 1972.
(and from CDC -)
CDC Media Statement on Newly Discovered Smallpox Specimens
On July 1, 2014, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) notified the appropriate regulatory agency, the Division of Select Agents and Toxins (DSAT) of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), that employees discovered vials labeled ”variola,” commonly known as smallpox, in an unused portion of a storage room in a Food and Drug Administration (FDA) laboratory located on the NIH Bethesda campus.
...The vials appear to date from the 1950s. Upon discovery, the vials were immediately secured in a CDC-registered select agent containment laboratory in Bethesda.
(((1950's))) - Looks like keeping the Tecovirimat, which is a cure not a vaccine, in stock for a few more decades does make sense. I suspect the security of the old USSR smallpox vials are in doubt also.
Thanks for sharing the news on Prescott. They did a lot of the hard work in preventing PIP management from screwing shareholders.
"Prescott Group Urges All PharmAthene Shareholders to Vote AGAINST Proposed Theraclone Merger
Special Meeting Scheduled to Take Place December 3rd, 2013"
They also had a keen insight on how PharmAthene may be heading for a payoff and possibly dissolving the company if the Siga has enough cash:
"The management of PharmAthene is also voting…with their feet: Although the transaction purports to be a “merger of equals,” in reality Theraclone will run the show after PharmAthene’s management team receives a multi-million dollar payment to abruptly exit."
Good to have Prescott on board in a bigger way. Siga, Perelman and MacAndrews & Forbes should be able to come up with the lump sum and hang onto Arestvyr.
Actual smallpox trials after recent CDC safety problems were exposed in press seem doubtful when you already have a smallpox antiviral pill. The Ebola hysteria being the last nail in the coffin to prevent any more testing with the smallpox virus stored at the CDC in Atlanta.
So, Siga please quit the never ending warning that you may not get future contracts BARDA intends to award.
November 15, 2006
...SIGA Technologies, Inc., [SIGA] says its smallpox drug, SIGA-246, has successfully completed two independent primate trials, one sponsored by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the other conducted at the Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases. Last month the company said the drug provides complete protection against human smallpox virus in nonhuman primates. In the two independent trials involved infection with high doses of monkeypox virus, which may be lethal in primates if left untreated. "Taken together with the recent breakthrough results from the smallpox virus study, the data continue to support the use of SIGA-246 as the first drug available to prevent and treat disease caused by pathogenic poxviruses without significant side effects,"
(CMX001 has failed a monkeypox trial and will probably never be tested with an actual smallpox trial, so future contracts look assured to stay with Tecovirimat (formerly known as ST-246 and Arestvyr)
Emergent BioSolutions’ (EBS) and BARDA
Emergent has signed a total of six multi-year contracts since 2004 for $2.6bn worth of BioThrax. The standing contract was signed in September of 2011 and extends through September of 2016 for a total of $1.25bn and up to 44.8 million doses of the drug.
Google it folks and you will see the numbers are real. The contract happens to be for the vaccine for pre-exposure prophylaxis of anthrax disease. Biothrax is an old drug FDA approved with a known history in humans. Something Sparvax will never be able to do because phase III testing in humans will never be allowed, maybe a big part of why Sparvax was put on the back burner by BARDA.
Anyhow, my main point is that Tecovirimat was a possible billion dollar drug in 2006. Looking forward to a last minute deal. Siga's team is fully aware of their "bad faith" and have heard from Judge Parsons and the Delaware Supreme Court that justice will be served with interest.
If Pharmathene gains possession through BK or whatever I suspect them to offer the government a much better price. Maybe close to the $100 the government thought possible. It will still be a lot of profit. Good for shareholders and taxpayers.
$1.2 billion, Maybe the bad faith boyz will come with the full amount Parsons awards Pharmathene and continue to "deal" with BARDA as they have in the past. Trying to get every last penny from anyone they deal with. Mr Perelman is a billionaire and then you have his McAndrews and assorted crew with plenty of cash and "bad faith" know how to get ever richer off this one deal.
GLTA the good people
For smallpox if you can't do human phase III studies (it's far too lethal so you can't) that the CMV monkey should be the second animal test to best prove a drugs potency and safety in humans.
The competition is CMX001 from Chimerix. I company I have owned for years and recently sold most of as I think it has reached a fair valuation. CMX001 is an effective drug to be used against in pox diseases in general, just not in CMV monkeys. You can google it and see all the problems and the workarounds they are attempting for smallpox.
Arestvyr (Tecovirimat) was injected up to 2 days following lethal injections of smallpox and the monkeys never had side effects from drug or disease. All lived healthy until they were put down for security concerns over having monkeys alive and around that were injected with a lethal dose of smallpox.
BARDA will not have that much trouble making a choice on which smallpox
Lump sum on anything that resembles the original 12 million courses Barda initially intended to order and Pharmathene owns Siga and the crew that stretched 'bad faith" into their personal wealth.
Should be an interesting takeover.
Proof of Concept, BIG done. Other inhalers used for COPD...have paved the way for proof of safety in long term studies. Analysts, hate MannKind and hate it more now that it has inked a worldwide deal with one of the best Big Pharmas you can find.
Hatred for a lifetime of needles? Close to unanimous. Buy the dips and enjoy a nice retirement in future years. Remember proof of concept is going to be huge as soon as a second drug starts using MannKind technology in a (Sanofi?) drug.
Siga needs to work a deal as soon as possible. Putting it all under Pharmathene and start to attack the remainder of the smallpox order as a respectable Biotech partner that really wants to work honestly with BARDA.
Sooner the better. Siga smells worse the more you look into their long history of bad faith with too many "partners".
In 2006 when the bad faith boys were playing games and using millions in lawyer fees to surprise Pharmathene the future for PharmAthene looked bright. HUGE funding was in place to fully stock the US with a second method of fighting smallpox, a major stated goal of BARDA. More than 10 million courses were wanted in the US stockpile.
It was a few years later that the "bad faith" boys totally pizzed off BARDA and had the order cut short term to $463 million with an option for the additional 12 million courses to be decided later.
Judge Parsons will make a lump sum award for what could have been possible in 2006.
Pay PharmAthene Lump Sum Expectation Damages
The "bad faith" boys were caught with dirty hands when Chimerix filed their complaint. 12 million more doses were put into jeopardy and how much relief do the "bad faith" boys deserve from what they should owe Pharmathene?
I'm a long time investor in Chimerix and have big doubts about awarding them any part of the BARDA contract for smallpox. I do understand their complaint with Siga and it's a whole nuther story if you want to google and see how the "bad faith" boys got into that disaster. CMX001 does have a very good chance of being approved for other pox infections. Just not for smallpox and the two animal studies that will never see phase III human trials.
New York, NY, October 18, 2006 - SIGA Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: SIGA) announced today that its lead drug, SIGA-246, is the first drug ever to demonstrate 100% protection against human smallpox virus in a primate trial conducted at the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). In this study, once-daily, oral administration of SIGA-246 protected cynomolgus monkeys from smallpox disease following intravenous high dosing with smallpox virus. The drug prevented symptoms of disease whether delivered at the same time as the virus or 24 hours later, supporting the drug's use for both post-exposure prophylaxis and treatment. SIGA-246 completely prevented lesion formation and reduced viral load to non-threatening levels in treated animals with no obvious toxicity. The study was conducted under rigorous bio-safety and -security conditions at the World Health Organization Collaborating Centers for Smallpox and Other Poxvirus Infections' BSL-4 laboratory located at the CDC in Atlanta and was funded by the Department of Health and Human Services, the CDC and the Department of Defense's Defense Threat Reduction Agency under the supervision of Dr. John Huggins, Chief of the Viral Therapeutics Branch, U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases.
The competitor is Chimerix, a company I am long and have just recently cut back to a small holding.
Chimerix has a good product CMX001 that has a major flaw that limits it's chances of being approved in an approval process that requires two animal models and no phase III trial will ever be done in humans.
The problem for CMX001
comparison of the levels of CDV-PP after i.v. CDV treatment versus i.m. CMX001 treatment (in healthy monkeys) revealed that the concentration of CDV-PP was much higher in the peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) of animals treated with i.v. CDV compared to those treated with i.m. CMX001 (Figure 2). This result is consistent with intracellular conversion of CMX001 to CDV being inefficient in monkeys. Because of this metabolic difference between monkeys and humans, data obtained with CMX001 in monkeys cannot be used to model human exposure.
12 million courses?What happened to the "bad faith" boys?
however, following a protest by a competitor of the Company, BARDA issued a contract modification on June 24, 2011 pursuant to which it deleted the option to purchase the additional courses. Under the BARDA Contract as modified
July 16, 2013 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- SIGA Technologies, Inc. (Nasdaq:SIGA
590,000 courses of Arestvyr (Tecovirimat) and has qualified for a payment of approximately $79 million for the courses delivered to date.
On May 13, 2011, the Company signed a contract with BARDA (the “BARDA Contract”) pursuant to which SIGA agreed to deliver two million courses of Tecovirimat, also known as ST-246 ®, to the U.S. Strategic National Stockpile (the “Strategic Stockpile”). The base contract, worth approximately $463 million , includes $54 million related to development and supportive activities and contains various options to be exercised at BARDA’s discretion. The period of performance for development and supportive activities runs until 2020. As originally issued, the BARDA Contract included an option for the purchase of up to 12 million additional courses of Tecovirimat;
Siga and everyone that has been profiting from the "bad faith" scam have "expensed" a lot on cost of goods for a very long time. Hope Judge Parsons and Delaware's Supreme Court can follow the money trail....