$9? Guggenheim is talking about the "share" price, book vlaue. What would the share price be worth with a sell of a couple hundred milions in assets, clean books and merger/buyout into someone with cash? I'm thinking a little more than TBV
Tower also payed a quarterly dividend this month. Thought it was a strong statement at the time. Good to see more validation of assests by third parties entering into these agreements.
March 8, 2013 Tower provided the data as the merger closed with Canopius
Tower Tangible Book Value per Share*
(1) Includes Tower Group, Inc. at Dec. 31, 2012 and Canopius Holdings Bermuda Limited estimated as of
closing date of merger
(2) Pro Forma Dec. 31, 2012 with Canopius Holdings Bermuda Limited shares divided by stock conversion factor
(3) Pro Forma Dec. 31, 2012 with Tower Group, Inc. shares multiplied by stock conversion factor
* Pro forma includes estimate of $30.3 million for closing adjustments
A 15% hit to TBV sounds reasonable if forced into a distressed BK at this time. Which I no longer think is in the picture.
MAY 28, 2013 PCS stays at $18.75 billion industry loss estimate on hurricane Sandy
The latest re-survey of hurricane Sandy insurance industry loss estimates has now been completed and published by Property Claim Services (PCS). The loss estimate for Sandy has not changed after this re-survey, it remains at $18.75 billion, and PCS told us that it is going to perform another re-survey in 60 days time to ensure that the loss estimate is accurate and reliable.
Looks good for TWGP, per a reputable third party. Final claims for Sandy could be higher than even last PCS estimate in 2013 and yet manageable.. (Forced) Liquidating assests at far less than fire sale prices was the issue I was most worried about.
Enstar and Catalina could provide a liquidity bridge and allows selling assets to raise cash. Or, just a buyout?
Enstar and Catalina in the news, what I wanted to hear. It's back to tangible book assets. Short term funding to get over the crises is at hand. Maybe even a buyout? Wall Street sharks were swimming looking for assets at %50 off.
Enstar knows TBV and their interest should validate the process that going forward will not gouge shareholders. GLTA
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced Thursday that the Department of Financial Services is investigating the claims practices of three insurers following the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy.
The three insurers are: Narragansett Bay Insurance Company, Tower Insurance Company and Kingstone Insurance Company. The regulators said these insurers have had “much higher than average” complaints rate by consumers to the department.
Found in "Claims Journal", also noted the "much higher than average" wording. TWGP was one of only three Insurers with (much) higher complaints. Anyone see where company made this news public?
this quote, before earnings delays, could be ominous:
In the case of Tower, it sounds as though the insurer is increasingly willing to underwrite business in worker's comp (((and coastal P&C))). This is business that carries above-average risk, but both Chubb and Arch Capital have shown that when written properly, it's also potentially quite lucrative.
speaking of modeling for Hurricane Sandy:
Risk modeller AIR Worldwide has published an update to their estimate of insured losses resulting from hurricane Sandy today and the numbers have jumped considerably. AIR’s first estimate was published on the 30th October and in that update they gave a range of $7 billion to $15 billion of losses but said they expected it to rise. In today’s update AIR have given a tighter, but much higher estimated range of between $16 billion and $22 billion of losses to the insurance industry from Sandy. That’s a pretty significant jump, with the low-end estimate increasing by 128% from $7B-$16B, the mid-point estimate increasing by 72% from $11B-$19B and the high-end estimate increasing by 46% from $15B to $22B
Looking at what Hurricane Sandy losses were for another Insurer:
Germany’s Talanx AG announced that its estimated net claims burden related to hurricane “Sandy” are approximately €306 million [$410 million] for the entire Group.
The estimate includes the total burden of €261 million [$349 million] of estimated losses announced by Hannover Re.
from "Insurance Journal"
1 in 700 year Hurricane, how do you model for that?
TWGP pulled back from their original $60 to $110 million estimate and said in September :
"and at this time is not providing any projections". Followed in a few weeks by Chief Underwriter Officer exiting the company.
From what I've read the reinsurer would be hit if/as claims passed the $10 billion mark. Claims were nearing $25 billion. Fitch also said the insurers diversification would have been vital. Everyone knows TWGP is Northeast focused and mainly New York City.
"and at this time is not providing any projections", couldn't the news about CUO resignation have come after Oct 7? TWGP should be more sensitive to their shareholders needs. Or, is it that bad?
Hurricane Sandy a 1-in-700-Year Event Says NASA Study
TWGP's Chief Underwriting Officer quit. Is Hurricane Sandy the gift that keeps on giving?
more from Fitch report:
Fitch says that most insurance-company losses are a manageable 7 percent or less of shareholder equity with an overall average of 3 percent. Only three companies were higher: Tower Group Inc. (8 percent), Validus Holdings, Ltd. (8.1 percent), and The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (8 percent).
The rating service notes that all three companies grew by acquisitions in recent years, “resulting in increased exposure to Northeast U.S. catastrophe risk.”
2006 A.M. Best
Due to the group's concentration in New York City, Tower's capital position is highly exposed to both natural and man-made catastrophe losses. A.M. Best has stress-tested Tower's capitalization on a risk-adjusted basis. The group's capitalization withstood these stress-tests at current rating levels; however, A.M. Best will continue to monitor Tower's risk management and data aggregation practices due to the sensitivity of the group's capital base to catastrophe exposures.
Jan 2013 Fitch says
Models Miss Sandy Losses, Need Adjustment: Fitch
Fitch adds that overall losses will fall within the high-end of loss estimates, reaching $20 billion and coming close to the $25 billion mark. It says companies have reported losses of approximately $16 billion to $17 billion ((so far)).
* My guess, TWGP is seeing losses well out of expected range
"reserve crisis", never heard this from management. TWGP should as minimum clarify if banks have been contacted and a little about why.
No bounce at closing...more margin calls and forced selling coming Monday? Unless, Management decides to get in front of their shareholders crises Monday AM. Booked my loss after not seeing management willing to address shareholders in distress.
"reserve crisis", if true management should have a new ballpark figure as to what is likely by Oct 7.
Wild Guess, A.M. Best has talked to management and can only downgrade with this kind of news. How much of a downgrade is the question.
Howdy albucucu, I had to step back from the markets. Slipping into day trader status is a bad thing for me. I really suck as a day trader and tend to lose precious money.
Taking myself off probation and hope to get rich slowly
AUGUST 12, 2013
financial strength rating (FSR) of A-....placed under review with negative implications.
How much of a downgrade is possible from the leaked "reserve crises"? I'm guessing some institutions would be forced into selling if this happened. Management really needs to open communications with shareholders, this has become a serious loss for many.
A.M. Best should be coming out with some news?
As we near the Oct 7 deadline TWGP sees forced insider selling and the exit of chief underwriting officer (somebody needed to go?). Huge amount of downside protection must be in place?
Think Wall Street sees blood in the water and wants a big discount on TWGP assets. Leads to Tower Group floating a buyout to halt a huge discount on their investment portfolio and cash equivalents?
Canopias Merger (3-13)
Tower Group Terminates Deal To Buy American Safety Reinsurance (8-19)
Tower has acquired the ongoing Marine and Energy business written by the U.S. office of ANV (7-9)
equals - Tower Group postpones release of financial results. Wall Street sharks have their way with shareholders, hmmm?! Friday, a good day for the downside boyz to play the last panic button. GLTA
Forced selling begets more selling in a spiral that seems to be seeing the beginning of stabilizing. Until October 7 and wild headlines can stir up another round of selling at ever lower prices. I've been buying in the low 8's and will add if price go even lower.
I'm not here for a huge bounce. I think this has become a long term investor story. The week of October 7 will be when I go all in, if I like the news. Plan on a boring long term hold to make big bucks. How low can this go short term? Any price anyone throws out has legit standing. Don't expect and help from management until the week of Oct 7.
Feels like a bottom here, I would personally love more shares much cheaper. However, current long standing shareholders may get help from management as with todays buyout rumor.