Merck planing to crank up more indications in trials in 2014. Endocyte plans starting up trials for new drug's' in coming year.
2014 could be a very good year.
Share short per NASDAQ site
IF Endocyte doesn't get the OK for Vintafolide on phase II data and the stock drops I will be adding. Thought it was a nice validation that the drug is getting serious consideration by EMA on limited data.
MPM and HealthCare Ventures are invested in both. Isn't that what this "merger of equals is all about? If Parsons gives a good deal on the Siga litigation Pharmathene can back out of the "equal" merger for $3 to $4 million? Wild guess, Pharmathene is more than happy to pay $3 to $4 million so that PIP shareholders benefit from sweeter settlements than expected.
Matador's Glasscock Ranch is north of Crimsons land and would be good news on how widespread the sweet spot is. Is Matador drilling that area?
Later, I think the mail order was a problem due to the RIMS program. The local pharmacist have experience and understanding with the patients and can fully explain in questions they may have. Expecting 2014 to be a very good year for this very effective drug and it's REMS program.
Look at ACCutane and it's really horrible REMS program. It was a highly effective drug and the doctors, patients and pharmacist worked together so that patients that needed Accutane were able to access and properly use a very very effective drug. Accutane became a blockbuster drug in sales with a great REMS system.
$3 bucks and a load of debt was taken on, close to $300M? I did think it was odd that the two rushed into the merger before buda results.
Thought $18 was EMA approved price.
My thinking, if vintafolide were an already approved drug now on the market it would easily get EMA approval for relapsed ressistant ovarian cancer. Having a diagnostic agent that identifies patients likely to benefit AND a very reasonable side effect profile would make it an easy approval.
Being a new agent not yet on the market may guide the EMA towards caution since a phase III trial is ongoing and could have more substantial trial results in a one & one-half years to approve a drug on PFS. The "no" is my wild guess and I plan to add when/if that occurs.
One worry, there are 2 or 3 vintafolide trials expected to get started or announced in the last qt '13 that may instill their own momentum in the stock. Thus, the worry this may be the low you get with a EMA "no".
Pullback has priced in a "no" on early European approval? Plus, I'm seeing a lot of carnage in biotech in general.
Won't complain if I get another chance to add sub $10. GLTA
"In addition, the DSMB recommended investigators and patients be advised that vintafolide monotherapy is not likely to be declared superior to docetaxel in progression-free survival or PFS at the end of the study, and patients currently on vintafolide monotherapy may continue treatment based on guidance from their investigator."
By not d/c the monotherapy as futile I'm guessing they see results similar to docetaxel. DSMB wouldn't want to put patients through needless side effects if no benefit. I'm seeing this as an unexpected plus
Remembering why I liked the drug technology here:
Otis Brawley, chief medical officer of the American Cancer Society, was quoted as saying, “We desperately need to figure out a way to predict the folks who are going to respond to the drug versus the folks who will only get side effects of the drug.” This seems precisely what the vintafolide and etarfolatide combination is able to do: identify the patients most likely to respond and then provide a drug specifically targeted for them.
Wish I had sold some on the run higher and used the cash to buy back at these lower prices. GLTA
Need second quarter numbers to even make a wild guess. Lawsuits from shareholders, policy holders and reinsurance partners. Has anyone from Canopious weighed in on the recent merger? If Canopious isn't filing against Tower as the share price fell from $20 to $4 post merger something is funny???
It was during the final review of Tower numbers to finalize the Canopious merger that this disaster unfolded. Outside auditors were brought in at that point. Maybe something will come out when Q2 is finally released. Should be a very well attended CC. At least one more shoe to be dropped?,my guess.
re: dividend will at best be put on hiatus
I'm expecting a .01 dividend for the next couple of quarters. I was stunned by the .16 dividend paid out last quarter, so who knows. The second quarter report will tell a lot about the strategy going forward. It will be the "kitchen sink" quarter to clean out the closet.
What I liked from 10-7's 8-K:
* Since 2010, Tower has been shifting its business mix, significantly de-emphasizing the lines that contributed to the reserve strengthening and modifying its book of commercial lines business.
* Tower’s U.S. insurance subsidiaries continue to maintain risk based capital levels in excess of those required by their respective domiciliary states.
* $365M - with the assistance of its independent actuarial consultants, a comprehensive review of the Company's loss reserves as of June 30, 2013. As a result of the review, the Company expects to strengthen loss reserves by approximately $365 million....The reserve strengthening reflects adverse loss emergence, coupled with changes in judgment, including actuarial factors.
So it looks like the reserve includes losses that include looking forward, as it should.
((6%)) dividend and a couple of quarters to prove Tower Group will be a viable corporate bussiness going forward......
If I see a 6% yield surviving after 2nd quarter results I plan to buy and hold. 16 % dividend that looks like it may be maintained will not be at $4 for long.
When do they release 2nd quarter earnings? So much important info to be revealed
Maintain the going forward and you will be surprised what the stock can do. Valuation of assets on the books are not taking a hit and that holds huge promise for TBV. A $360M hit on assets would leave a lot of TBV?
Looking forward to the complete filing of the 2nd quarter and their decision on can they continue the dividend, while keeping head above water. I think it's possible if the assets Tower holds have been good to great choices.
16.2% is huge, GLTA
OK, thanks for posting the AM Best update. Scary:
* potential for further adverse reserve development
*competitive challenges and due to the ratings downgrade
*potential actions taken by third party reinsurers and lenders
Classic Buffet entry points does not mean the trading low is in. GLTA on the big week coming, expecting Tower Group to clean out the closets and expose everything plus the kitchen sink. Seems like everything plus a rotten kitchen sink is now priced into the stock.
One more panic sell session?
You raise capital short to medium term that pays higher interest rates and/or converts that rewards private capital for the risk in providing liquidity (((now))). It's the (((now))) time period that will/may force Tower Group into raising liquidity under onerous terms.
Who leaked info on late Friday PM? So many leaks.
Expecting more good news before week of Oct 7. If possible company will get ratios safely into areas AM Best likes. Good news on Friday PM would be very effective.