All business in dealing with Siga's years and years of Bad Faith. Looks like they want blood when this thing is settled.
Siga is running around with the $170M minimum Flag and Pharmathene seems like it could care less. JMHO
within 15M of final settlement, could have some royalty negotiations even merger so that $54M in tax deferred benefits are not thrown away. May not be a cut and dry ending. The more complicated the higher the payoff likely for shareholders
Check Siga's Nov 4th filing
SIGA has recorded a loss accrual for expectation damages of $175 million as of September 30, 2014. This amount includes pre-judgment interest accrued through September 30, 2014, and it reflects the minimum amount within the range
After ebola hysteria I'm guessing BARDA had made noises bout the next round of Tecovirimat will be stockpiled. "Clear up this bad faith mess ASAP"
Based on these submissions to the Court of Chancery, SIGA has recorded a loss accrual for expectation damages of $175 million as of September 30, 2014. This amount includes pre-judgment interest accrued through September 30, 2014, and it reflects the minimum amount within the range of calculations submitted to the Court of Chancery dictated by the narrow constraints of the Remand Opinion and related order. Notwithstanding the Company's view that the range of calculations is inappropriate and will be appealed, the minimum of the range was selected because no amount in the range is a better estimate than any other amount.
The ultimate outcome of SIGA’s appeal of the Remand Opinion and related order of the Court of Chancery is unpredictable, and the ultimate amount of the loss may be significantly different than the amount accrued.
" non-cash charge of $54 million"
Is Perlman/McAndrews Forbes really going down this path? $54 million is a big hunk of cash and I suspect negotiations will be fruitful.
Maybe $2 bucks higher?
On October 17, the Company and PharmAthene separately submitted lump sum damages calculations to the Court of Chancery. PharmAthene’s submission noted a damages calculation, inclusive of pre-judgment interest, of approximately $233 million as of September 30, 2014. The Company’s submission noted a damages calculation, inclusive of pre-judgment interest, of approximately $173 million as of August 8, 2014 (the date of the Remand Opinion). The separate calculations submitted by PharmAthene and the Company are based on each parties’ interpretation of the adjusted valuation methodology the Court of Chancery directed the parties to utilize in the Remand Opinion. The ultimate loss to be incurred from this litigation is highly uncertain and may be significantly different from the range of calculations. In its submission, the Company stated that SIGA intends to argue on appeal that PharmAthene has no entitlement to any award of expectation damages, but, rather, should be limited to a recovery of its reliance interest of approximately $200,000 . Accordingly, the ultimate loss to be incurred from this litigation is highly uncertain and may be significantly different from the range of calculations set forth in the October 17 submissions to the Court of Chancery.
10Q filed 10-4- 2014
During the quarter ended September 30, 2014, the Company recorded a loss accrual for expectation damages of $175 million related to the PharmAthene litigation (see Note 14) and filed a voluntary petition for relief under chapter 11 of Title 11 of the United States Bankruptcy Code (see Note 2). Additionally, the PharmAthene litigation and recent chapter 11 filing raise substantial doubt about the Company's ability to continue as a going concern. As such, the Company has concluded that it could no longer realize its deferred tax assets on a more likely than not basis and recorded a non-cash charge of $54 million to establish a valuation allowance against all of its deferred tax assets. The amount of deferred tax asset considered realizable, however, could be adjusted if estimates of future taxable income during the carryforward period are increased or reduced or if objective negative evidence is no longer present.
Today's Bloomberg piece:
" The litigation, pending in Delaware state court, will continue during mediation, and any accord over a possible $232 million in damages reached by the companies will require bankruptcy court approval, Lane said."
Dow -vs_Rhome & Hass is a good examples of how markets mis-price an obvious outcome.
Dow tried to back out of a merger
Solid contract at $78/share. Rhome and Hass dropped to as low as $57.10. I bought in at cheap price and lived with paranoia of a stock underpriced (or not) maybe because I didn't fully understand corporate law. In a matter of months I got $78/share. It was hard at time to hold because It felt like smarter guys in the know were the reason the stock was at $57.
Just a matter of time before the speculators moved on and investors gain hold of more and more shares before the final negotiated deal is announced and we have an idea of what the final settlement will look like. Rhom and Hass slowly marched toward $78 as a court date waited. You could still make another $5/share the day the merger was announced on the court steps.
Dow - vs - Rhome & Hass was a 15 billion merger and followed by the best of analyst and the stock price still allowed for buying heavily discounted shares.
PharmAthene, a lot of clarity is now out there for anyone to read and get a feel for the value of PIP. I'm accumulating as the vast majority of speculation is now mathematical interpretation vs legal maneuvering . Nolt nearly as speculative to me.
*LATS terms *84% probability *COGS * 1.4 billion courses at $100 * 13% cost because Parsons said so. * milestone payments * percentage of legal fees reimbursed
My hope. Siga & Pharmathene are seriously negotiating and will use of tax loss carry forwards...and keep another $100 million or more as profits. A motivated Siga to achieve the most profitable outcome for all is also a new animal that could be very helpful to all in final stage negotiations.
(reposted, just a reminder that I''m in the paranoid stage with PIP valuation)
"Revlon officials agreed to pay more than $9.2 million to resolve investors’ claims that Ronald Perelman, the controlling shareholder, shortchanged them in a deal designed to acquire common stock he didn’t already own."
("Bad faith" has an ugly definition in Delaware, we should know soon if Siga thinks continuing the lawsuit would only increase the losses)
Note the wording from the $230M release by Pharmathene:
SIGA expects it to be substantial - as much as $232 million (or more with post-judgment interest and attorneys' and expert fees) and "SIGA has assumed that any judgment to be entered in this matter will be no less than $180 million (inclusive of pre-judgment interest through the date of entry of judgment by the Court of Chancery as well as professional fees and expenses)."
Expectations in September 2006 were very high. Parsons and the Supreme Court are in agreement on that. Siga needs to swallow hard and make a deal with Pharmathene. JMHO
Portola has entered into Phase 2 and Phase 3 clinical collaboration agreements with all of the manufacturers of direct Factor Xa inhibitors – Bristol-Myers Squibb and Pfizer for Eliquis® (apixaban), Bayer HealthCare and Janssen Pharmaceuticals for XARELTO® (rivaroxaban), and Daiichi Sankyo for edoxaban.
Two ongoing randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled ANNEXA™ (Andexanet Alfa a Novel Antidote to the Anticoagulant Effects of fXA Inhibitors) Phase 3 studies are evaluating the safety and efficacy of andexanet alfa in reversing Eliquis- or XARELTO-induced anticoagulation rapidly after an IV bolus and sustaining that effect through a continuous infusion.
MY WILD GUESS, November is going to be a big month for investors to establish their position in this one for 2015.
COTO report was from May 16, 2011. In 2006 I have no doubt Siga had visions of billions when they went the bad faith path to get rid of Pharmathene agreement.
However Supremes said lump sum based expectation damages. Does Siga really want to appeal to that same supreme court or negotiate and hope to get a $400M follow on order in the future that would be all theirs?
Doing quick math myself and not using a CPA to do my math.
84% probability = 16%
23% = 23& because Parson's said so
15% COG = 15%
Equals 54% hit on expectations of $1.4B. That would actually be $476M. Not a CPA so I'm giving it a $300M value when experts do their thing with the total.
Supreme Court said expectation damages as of 2006.
BARDA awards $3 billion in vaccine contracts for eradicated smallpox
((COTO Report Full Spectrum Defiance))
In-Pharma Technologist reports, “On May 13 Siga Technologies revealed the US Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) had awarded it a five-year, $433m (#$%$306m) contract. However, two days later Siga was forced to suspend work on the contract after Chimerix filed a protest.”
If all the options in the contract are exercised, it is worth $2.8 billion to Siga, In-Pharma explained.
Think any of these no bid officials will go to jail for costing taxpayers millions. Hope so. Doubt it. Would love to see Relm go after the actual officials and name names in local papers.
It's Wall Street. Nobody pays a personal fine and nobody goes to jail. The guys that know how to set up these kind of scams and pockets their millions know how to protect their personal fortunes.