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Skullcandy, Inc. (SKUL) Message Board

cash2go 139 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 26, 2014 1:05 AM Member since: Feb 8, 2006
  • Reply to

    Just so everyone's been made aware

    by oogaboogabooga1459 Sep 10, 2014 2:46 PM
    cash2go cash2go Sep 10, 2014 3:51 PM Flag

    Appreciate any post on what calls and puts are saying. It is all hocus pocus to me but I do get insights from you guys that I find very interesting. Also find charting a helpful tool. PIP recently formed a golden cross in the charting department. Just needs to work off volume as a lot of owners have doubled their money from the lows and will likely sell quite a few shares before it as over in this sub $2.50 range.

    I can't even day trade profitably.

  • Dow -vs_Rhome & Hass is a good examples of how markets mis-price an obvious outcome.

    Dow tried to back out of a merger

    Solid contract at $78/share. Rhome and Hass dropped to as low as $57.10. I bought in at cheap price and lived with paranoia of a stock underpriced (or not) maybe because I didn't fully understand corporate law. In a matter of months I got $78/share. It was hard at time to hold because It felt like smarter guys in the know were the reason the stock was at $57.

    Just a matter of time before the speculators moved on and investors gain hold of more and more shares before the final negotiated deal is announced and we have an idea of what the final settlement will look like. Rhom and Hass slowly marched toward $78 as a court date waited. You could still make another $5/share the day the merger was announced on the court steps.

    Dow - vs - Rhome & Hass was a 15 billion merger and followed by the best of analyst and the stock price still allowed for buying heavily discounted shares.

    PharmAthene, a lot of clarity is now out there for anyone to read and get a feel for the value of PIP. I'm accumulating as the vast majority of speculation is now mathematical interpretation vs legal maneuvering . Nolt nearly as speculative to me.

    *LATS terms *84% probability *COGS * 1.4 billion courses at $100 * 13% cost because Parsons said so. * milestone payments * percentage of legal fees reimbursed

    My hope. Siga & Pharmathene are seriously negotiating and will use of tax loss carry forwards...and keep another $100 million or more as profits. A motivated Siga to achieve the most profitable outcome for all is also a new animal that could be very helpful to all in final stage negotiations.

  • Reply to

    Nanotherapeutics?

    by polgringo Sep 8, 2014 2:07 PM
    cash2go cash2go Sep 10, 2014 9:52 AM Flag

    Yum. Looks like good news became better news today. Picked up a few more shares today. If market dips and drags PIP's stock with it...yum again.

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    Buyout merger Negotations?

    by cash2go Sep 8, 2014 3:25 PM
    cash2go cash2go Sep 9, 2014 10:22 AM Flag

    Looking at the history of Siga I'll make another guess on negotiations. Siga would be willing to let their shareholders take the brunt of as much pain as possible resulting from a negotiated settlement. Best of luck to any of the small Siga shareholder. Hope they don't get more of the same from management as we are finally reaching the end.

  • Reply to

    Nanotherapeutics?

    by polgringo Sep 8, 2014 2:07 PM
    cash2go cash2go Sep 9, 2014 1:21 AM Flag

    Founded in 1999, Nanotherapeutics landed a massive Department of Defense contract in March of this year that could be worth as much as $360 million over 10 years to develop manufacturing processes for drugs to treat bioterrorism and radiological threats. The base contract was for $135.8 million and two years with options up to 10 years and $358.9 million.

    * looking at PR's on their site they seem pretty happy to announce their alliance with Pharmathene.
    * maybe more details coming from Rodman & Renshaw Conference Tuesday

  • Reply to

    Buyout merger Negotations?

    by cash2go Sep 8, 2014 3:25 PM
    cash2go cash2go Sep 9, 2014 12:39 AM Flag

    Prescott revealed something when they were fighting the Theraclone merger:

    "Prescott is concerned that the merger's timing has more to do with a recent 3rd party indication of interest to buy the entire company than good business judgment: Only after the SEC review process did PharmAthene revise its proxy statement to disclose that on June 10, 2013 it received a “non-binding indication of interest” from an undisclosed 3rd party to buy the entire Company. Why did PharmAthene not disclose this in their original proxy filing? Prescott is concerned that this may have improperly motivated the PharmAthene Board to enter into this transaction before waiting for the pending results of its valuable SIGA litigation."

    * Behind closed doors so much is going on and Pharmathene shareholders really need to be updated. After the Prescott boys have bought their full allotment...?

  • Reply to

    Buyout merger Negotations?

    by cash2go Sep 8, 2014 3:25 PM
    cash2go cash2go Sep 9, 2014 12:17 AM Flag

    correction (at least one more $400 million plus contract likely in the next few years).

    Supreme Court found Siga guilt of "conscious doing of a wrong" with a "dishonest purpose" or "ill will," not merely acting negligently or with bad judgment. Is Siga really interested in negotiating with Pharmathene to bring the case to a settlement on terms that resemble the LATS? I'm guessing there is a lot to look forward too for Siga and it's shareholders once the terms of a settlement, merger or buyout are complete.
    $1.4 billion, do the math, throw in the math of the math of tax savings via a merger (both parties were content with a merger at one point) and...

  • Reply to

    Buyout merger Negotations?

    by cash2go Sep 8, 2014 3:25 PM
    cash2go cash2go Sep 8, 2014 3:31 PM Flag

    $40 MILLION CASH IN PERELMANS HANDS? With future milestone payments, additional orders (at least one more $400 contract seems likely.

    Settlement or appeal to a Supreme Court that has been brutal in saying lump sum is what Parson's should looking at.

  • When Siga decides that tick clock is too expesnive and the interest penalties are becoming a more serioius ticking problem daily.

    Not an accountant so I'm just guessing. Something could be surprising on the advantages of Siga settling out of court. Use of the tax loss carry forwards that it receives through an acquisition.

    Siga or PharmAthene would be looking at saving (tens of millions?) 40% tax rate? Hope the two parties are having some serious negotiations on how to most profitably settle this out of court. I'm sure Siga is even more motivated by the ticking interest penalty Parson's made as part of any court outcome.

    (a quick very nonprofessional example)

    Income before tax loss $100M
    tax loss carry forward ...$100M
    tax savings....................$40M

    GLTA

  • Reply to

    Ebola

    by cash2go Sep 3, 2014 9:39 AM
    cash2go cash2go Sep 3, 2014 9:42 AM Flag

    This is an antiviral and not a vaccination. Hope the animal trials announce good results soon.

  • cash2go by cash2go Sep 3, 2014 9:39 AM Flag

    I vitro. However, drug has beed through large safety studies and been effective in compassionate use for viral infections. Wouldn't take long to get OK for compassionate trial use for ebola.

  • cash2go cash2go Sep 3, 2014 1:16 AM Flag

    Supreme Court said:

    In the context of proposing terms substantially different than the term sheet, the court described “bad faith” as:
    ”not simply bad judgment or negligence, but rather it implies the conscious doing of a wrong because of dishonest purpose or moral obliquity; it is different from the negative idea of negligence in that it contemplates a state of mind affirmatively operating with furtive design or ill will.”

    * Term sheet = LATS

  • cash2go cash2go Sep 3, 2014 1:14 AM Flag

    Looking at Siga's 7-31-2014 10Q
    page 2
    June 30, 2014
    Cash and cash equivalents $99,029,327

    Deferred revenue................$188,081,857

    page 6
    The Company received approximately $15.3 million for the delivery and acceptance in July of 115,000 courses.

    *Negotiations going on now as Siga is facing the Appeal Bond and future interest if they want to appeal the "bad faith" settlement. The Supreme Court has decided a lump sum payment would be valid.
    The Supreme Court also agreed that PharmAthene is “entitled to recover contract expectation damages.” Settle out of court or...

  • cash2go cash2go Sep 2, 2014 1:52 AM Flag

    Parson's says do the math with a $1.4 billion contract.

    84% probablility
    23% hit because he said so
    15% COGS

    Out of court settlement of $343 million would be coming to PharmAthene. Siga wouldn't have an ugly guilty verdict of ill will overhanging them when BARDA announces CMX-001 is not going to be undergoing an actual smallpox trial and puts drug on hold for smallpox. I suspect at least another $400 million order will be forthcoming for Tecovirimat.
    PharmAthene and Siga negotiations are likely underway and both have a similar view of more BARDA orders are coming if they play nice.

    GLTA

  • page 26

    As PharmAthene’s damages expert Baliban reported, the license agreement contemplated by the LATS would have apportioned to PharmAthene approximately 70% of the total return from ST-246.

  • Reply to

    Appeal Bond

    by mustyroger Aug 24, 2014 10:03 AM
    cash2go cash2go Aug 28, 2014 2:13 AM Flag

    Two Benefits for Siga Settling this Case,

    * No "Guilty" Verdict. In a trial, there's usually a "guilty" or "not guilty" verdict, but in a settlement the defendant, person or party on the defensive, may not want a record of guilt. Settling a case is a way to pay for a mistake, but not admit wrongdoing (bad faith as defined by Delaware Law is u-g-l-y)

    * Finality. Siga can focus on future contracts, real cash flow (no appeal bond, rising interest debt, legal expenses), significant milestone payment FDA approval

    Siga is in a (lose more situation) if they were to appeal at this stage. Feels like end game and here is how Siga put it in last PR:

    ...the risk that our internal controls will not be effective in detecting or preventing a misstatement in our financial statements, (xv) the risk that some amounts received and recorded as deferred revenue may someday be determined to have been more properly characterized as revenue when received, (xvi) the risk that some amounts received and recorded as deferred revenue ultimately may not be recognized as revenue, (xvii) the risk that any appeal of the post-remand opinion may not be successful and that such post-remand opinion will be upheld in whole or in part, or that an appeal, if any, by SIGA may result in a different, less favorable ruling that could materially and adversely affect the Company, (xviii) the risk that any appeal may result in extended and expensive litigation, (xix) the risk that continued litigation with PharmAthene, Inc. may impede SIGA’s efforts to continue to grow, and (xx) the risk that SIGA may not be able to establish its intended positions or otherwise may not prevail in any further court proceedings.

  • Reply to

    Appeal Bond

    by mustyroger Aug 24, 2014 10:03 AM
    cash2go cash2go Aug 27, 2014 11:24 PM Flag

    Thanks for posting about the possible Appeal Bond. Looks like Siga has more reason to negotiate in good faith and end the court case the Delaware Courts have used to point out Siga's somewhat criminal "bad faith" history.

    Appeal Bond, nice share. One more good reason Siga may be forced to stop legal maneuvers that only serve Perelman and so few Siga shareholders.

  • Reply to

    Siga running up an impressive cash position

    by cash2go Aug 27, 2014 10:59 PM
    cash2go cash2go Aug 27, 2014 11:09 PM Flag

    According to Yahoo Finance Enterprise Value (Aug 28, 2014)3: -23.82M

    Has Wall Street read the remedy from Parsons and placed a bet that Pharmathene's award will resemble LATS terms as Parsons said in his first finding? Siga must be doing some serious negotiating with PharmAthene to stay in the game for future milestone payments and at least one more sizeable order in the next couple of years.

    GLTA, some impressive Wall Street accumulation w/o running up PIP's price.

  • Looking at Siga's 7-31-2014 10Q
    page 2
    June 30, 2014
    Cash and cash equivalents $99,029,327
    Total current assets.............$129,734,471
    Deferred revenue................$188,081,857

    page 6
    The Company received approximately $15.3 million for the delivery and acceptance in July of 115,000 courses.
    * Also
    Completion of initial BARDA contract for $433 million to be completed by first quarter 2015

    Milestone for FDA approval will be worth $50 to $100 million more

    Settle out of court so that there is not a "guilty of bad faith" on their record will only help in pursuing further BARDA contracts. (Remember the Dealware definition of "bad faith")

    Milestone and further contracts I see much more likely following the March 14 2014 approval by FDA for compassionate use in monkeypox, smallpox & adverse reactions to smallpox vaccine (Vaccinia).

    Sizeable tax credits to use at Siga and Pharmathene.

SKUL
9.47-0.04(-0.42%)Nov 26 4:00 PMEST

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