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Валгрин Ко. Message Board

cash_is_king_now 161 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 27, 2015 11:23 AM Member since: Mar 9, 2003
  • Reply to

    HZNP action for next week

    by med_investor Nov 15, 2015 12:32 AM
    cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Nov 18, 2015 5:24 PM Flag

    But the stock is up 5.4% from last week anyway.
    If you followed him, you should thanks him.
    The way I see it, it up so far for this week and it still has an acquisition which MAY push it higher.
    As long as it is going up then we (excluding shorts and those who are not taking any action) be happy.

  • Reply to

    HZNP action for next week

    by med_investor Nov 15, 2015 12:32 AM
    cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Nov 18, 2015 4:29 PM Flag

    phil, he said "MY guess is...".
    He did not say that this will happen but he just guessed it.
    Now in response, you may say "My guess is that no acquisition happens on Monday or Wednesday".

  • cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Nov 18, 2015 4:24 PM Flag

    PBM is in business of changing prescription for patients who have compliances problems. Most old patients have and either forget or overdose themselves.
    What ESRX and CVS PBM are doing is to increase health care by billions to save a few millions which mostly go to their packets.
    100,000 hospitalization and 16,000 death is what ESRX and CVS are doing by misleading public.

  • While those pharmacies are pushed out of business then ESRX add them to its giant specialty pharmacy.
    Why to do business an honest way. Who can trust these guys who are taking advantage of the system.

  • cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Nov 18, 2015 3:48 PM Flag

    Actually, there are a few here who try hard to poison the board.

  • cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Nov 18, 2015 3:38 PM Flag

    Media is paid to write something in favor of payers. It is like advertisement for them even though mislead the public.
    Real cost is in hospitalization and other facts and pricing is smaller portion of costs.
    100,000 hospitalization is a high number for not compliance.

  • This a clear message from today's CC.
    Forget about LC that is doing less than 5% of HZNP net sale. HZNP can move to other specialty pharmacies quickly with no effect on net sale.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Grünenthal terminates license agreement with Actavis for cebranopadol
    An analysts asked DEPO why Actavis returned cebranopadol

    Monday, December 1, 2014
    Grünenthal, an independent, family-owned, international, research-based pharmaceutical company headquartered in Aachen, Germany, has terminated a license agreement with Actavis for the development and commercialization of cebranopadol, a novel analgesic for the treatment of chronic pain.

    Actavis’ subsidiary Forest Laboratories Ireland and Grünenthal had entered into a license agreement for cebranopadol in December 2010. This agreement included the co-development and commercialization of cebranopadol (GRT6005), with exclusive rights for Actavis in the U.S. and Canada, while Grünenthal held the rights in Europe and the rest of the world.

    Grünenthal continues the development program as planned. The termination of the license agreement does not have any impact on the enrollment status of patients who currently are participating in ongoing clinical trials in Europe and the U.S.

  • The Medicare Part D prescription drug benefit bucked the trend of government bloat and failure by introducing real consumer choice and competition among providers to keep costs down. It came in under budget and expanded drug treatment to lessen chronic medical conditions among seniors, thereby lessening the need for more expensive and acute treatments down the road.

    But that progress could be undone if the government does not act swiftly to ensure real competition is maintained by making sure small businesses are given genuine opportunity to compete for federal contracts.

    Every other federal program must ensure that at least 36 percent of all federal contracts go to small business. Yet the Medicare prescription-drug program is exempted from that requirement. Why? The only conclusion to draw is to protect the big pharmacy-network monopolies, sweetheart deals and windfall profits.

    Because small pharmacies are effectively excluded from the Part D program, the two biggest pharmacy-benefit managers cover more than half of all pharmacy benefits in the Medicare program. Add in the next two companies, and that market control climbs to 79 percent. This has led to anti-competitive practices that, if practiced in any other part of the Medicare system, would be considered illegal Medicare fraud.

    The government tried to restore small-business access to the Medicare prescription-drug program last year, but the big pharmacy-benefit managers and their Washington lobbyists killed those common-sense proposals by carpet-bombing Capitol Hill with lobbyists and money.

  • Imagine this, 6 small businesses are doing the same THING and when you the customer needs that THING, YOU CALL ALL 6 or 2.

    You get the best price.

    However when the monopoly takes over that business, first they cut prices for the customers (taking away customers) and raising prices on Small Businesses.

    After original Small Businesses are gone, 100's of people are jobless and customers are forced to pay higher prices for that THING...

    Higher prices and less jobs, so people have no choice but to pay more for things and work for less.
    This started just about 1983 (just about when NAFTA negotiations started) when our beloved government said....

  • Reply to

    HZNP action for next week

    by med_investor Nov 15, 2015 12:32 AM
    cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Nov 15, 2015 4:57 PM Flag

    ^^^^^*** It's just too hard to believe HZNP that would continue with any plans with any acquisition in the short term after this DEPO *** ^^^^^

    Well, it did not prevent HZNP to put outlook for 2015, 2016 and also 5 years plan up to 2020.
    Rain or Shine, the Master Plan will be executed.
    DEPO and ES are just a few bumps in the way but not significant to affect HZNP Mater Plan.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    HZNP action for next week

    by med_investor Nov 15, 2015 12:32 AM
    cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Nov 15, 2015 4:46 PM Flag

    Good job guys,
    I think we will have a busy and exciting week ahead of us

    1- Monday, possible a PR and some news
    2- Tuesday, LC court against ES
    3- Wednesday, Stifel CC at 10:15 AM ET, possible an announcement
    4- Thursday, Jerfferies CC at 5 AM ET (wow too early)
    5- Thursday, Goldman Sachs CC at 9:20 AM ET
    6- Thursday, DEPO Poison Pill at court
    7- Thursday, possible expansion of previous news like acquisition.
    8- Friday, relax and let the share price to zoom up

    My guess is the acquisition will be announced on Wednesday if not Monday.
    But any day is a good day even if HZNP waits for Monday Nov 23.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Ignore noises by opportunist who are seeing a conflict with their interest.
    Look at the facts. This ES has no material effect on HZNP total plan since the company has a much larger plan than to be worry about 5% of its business. After all, this 5% is not lost but it is delayed and HZNP will get it soon and more. The PPS has been punished as if HZNP has lost most of its business. If that was the case then analysts could come up with 8 downgrades and lower HZNP estimates immediately. However, this is not the case. As a matter of fact, this event makes HZNP stronger since it will put all sorts of preventions to avoid future fumble. It did it for V and D drugs and these two drugs are ramping up and they are producing record revenue and income now.
    Focus should be on new acquisitions and HZNP pipeline for new drugs. I do not see any company in the sector to be active as much as HZNP is. Look at big guys like GILD with $20 billion cash but its shareholders are suffering because of lack innovation and acquisition. GILD management becomes conservative and they are not willing to take any risk and action but an easy way to buyback its share. When a company puts money in buyback then it ends its growth and innovation. IBM has done it for past few years and AAPL is doing the same and look what is happening to them.
    Bottom line, this event will be history soon and the winner will be HZNP. PPS will recover and it will reach new highs and these days will be missed. How many times I have seen the same scenario is countless. I remember when PCYC around this time of year a few years back. There was a noise and it dropped from $16 to $12. I stepped in and there were many people who were predicting zero share price. Last year, PCYC was sold to ABBV over $257 per share, and that was only 1/2 of PCYC, the other half belongs to JNJ.
    Believe it or not, this is the best opportunity for investors who want a good return in near and far future.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Less than 5% of revenue

    by med_investor Nov 12, 2015 10:28 AM
    cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Nov 12, 2015 10:47 AM Flag

    Exactly, 5% for a month or so for HZNP to switch and adjust.
    5% is about $11m revenue and it about 2 pennies per share for the quarter. HZNP just raised the quarter by over $.20.
    So, 20% drop is caused by noise and short sellers to cover.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    We will retest the 3 month intraday low around 12

    by bkozak33 Nov 11, 2015 6:39 PM
    cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Nov 11, 2015 7:19 PM Flag

    Technically speaking, the stock filled the gap from earnings day and also closed above Mid BB. A good sign.
    The company cannot be punished 20% while less than 5% is affected by current news.
    After all, this 5% is not lost permanently. At worst case scenario, HZNP will group the 5% with D and V drugs and business will continue as usual. ES also may comprise and honor its contract until next year, I mean court will force ES to stay put.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Nov 11, 2015 7:09 PM Flag

    I am sitting and watching the tape. I am relaxed and not worry a bit at all. Overall, this is driven by shorts.
    I am 100% sure it will be different in next few days and weeks. We need to pass Nov 20.
    Only short term and inexperienced investors are worry and tricked to sell their shares.
    A friend of mine called me, he was panicking. I told him not to look at his account, relax and give it a little time. I have been in this situation many times and I only changed my mind if fundamentals were changed significantly. This is less than 5% of HZNP revenue and I am sure that TW and his team will find a better way to do it with their plan. Just look at HZNP history when V and D drugs were removed by ES and CVS. Now, they are doing much better today and bringing more revenue than before.
    In hands of TW, this 5% business will become 10% with an alternative way.
    So, please do not panic, ES cannot cut somebody this way since patients need to get their medicine and ES cannot replace the drug with anything else. They may try but that will be in expense of patients who do not know about replacement. which may hurt them. ES tries to act like patients doctors but that is wrong. This is what doctor described and this is what patients should get regardless of costs.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • cash_is_king_now by cash_is_king_now Nov 11, 2015 11:13 AM Flag

    I see support at Mid Bollinger Band which is sitting at $17.65.
    Already hit it and should rebound from this point on.
    In addition, the GAP was from mid and high $17 to $20.
    I think, HZNP will be much stronger from this point on and today to the end of the year.
    I still expect over $24 for this year and that will happen when HZNP announces acquisitions and EU approval.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Linden's Countersuit

    by geringerart Nov 11, 2015 10:41 AM
    cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Nov 11, 2015 10:42 AM Flag

    "Express Scripts is not only a pharmacy benefit manager that has significant control over prescriptions that flow to specialty pharmacies, it also operates its own mail-order pharmacy and thus is a direct competitor of small, independent specialty pharmacies throughout the United States. This competitive role, in our view, creates a clear conflict of interest, as Express Scripts stands as both a pharmacy's overseer and competitor. In fact, Express Scripts' specialty pharmacy, Accredo Health Group, Inc., is the largest in the United States with more than 28 percent market share. Based on its Accredo ownership, it's not surprising that Express Scripts would target small, competitive independent specialty pharmacies in order to force those pharmacies from its network, attempt to dominate the U.S. specialty pharmacy medicine distribution channel and further boost its own profits at the expense of patients. As the New York Times reported on July 15, 2015, independent specialty pharmacies believe that insurers and pharmacy benefit managers funnel business to their own pharmacies, even if others may provide better service."

  • cash_is_king_now by cash_is_king_now Nov 11, 2015 10:36 AM Flag

    Conflict of interest.
    ES monopoly will be ended.
    ES tries to force small companies out of business.

  • cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Nov 11, 2015 10:25 AM Flag

    HZ short interest went up by 58% in short 10 trading days.
    Unless ES shared the info or this is timed with DEPO there is no other reason.