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Валгрин Ко. Message Board

cash_is_king_now 121 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 8, 2016 12:42 PM Member since: Mar 9, 2003
  • cash_is_king_now by cash_is_king_now Jan 9, 2016 8:24 PM Flag

    So, the supports at Mid BB around $21 and 50 DMA around $20 were broken last week.
    Currently, Lower BB around $18.82 act as a support but all depends on the market. If the market continues to drop with 3 digits numbers (Dow and Nas) then it forces most stocks, including HZNP to drop but not as steep as last week. In a worse case scenario, HZNP may go to $17s but rebound will be fast and furious.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cash_is_king_now by cash_is_king_now Jan 8, 2016 1:42 PM Flag

    Investors who owns the stock and hold until Wednesday will get dividend.

  • cash_is_king_now by cash_is_king_now Jan 6, 2016 2:36 PM Flag

    Mid BB is sitting at $21.06 and it should act as a support. It is likely that the stock closes above this support.
    The second strong support is at 50 DMA at $20.
    HZNP has done well in this red market. This is 5 days in a row that the market goes red and HZNP has held well so far and it will do well when market returns to normal action.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Jan 2, 2016 4:42 PM Flag

    Conclusion:
    HZNP was trading above $30 while expecting $1.36 per share for 2015 and $1.90 for 2016 of income.
    Now HZNP is trading at high $21, almost 30% below $30 price while its income for 2015 increased to $1.94 (43% improvement compare to mid year estimates) and $2.37 for 2016 (25% improvement to mid year estimates).
    DEPO acquisition which added most of negativity was cancelled. Crealta acquisition diversified HZNP further and the company is putting more money in R&D to and switching from a pure roll-up to company with more R&D. International marketing and more acquisition will be the next company attention.
    Cash position will be strong and the company may do some refinancing for future acquisition.
    Fear and misinformation were cause of most bearishness in second half of 2015 but picture is more clear now and I am expecting fast recovery to prices over $30 in first half of 20016.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Jan 2, 2016 4:15 PM Flag

    Part 3, continued from previous posts.
    9- November 11, just a few days after the earnings, ES came out with its intentional news that excluded two of HZNP drugs. Back to square one again and HZNP lost most of its gain from earnings. Even though the stock dropped over 18%, AO stayed positive to indicate that the drop was temporarily.

    10- November 11 to December 31, the stock recovered most of the losses induced by ES. It is sitting at high $21 now but below prices after the Q3 earnings. AO is positive sitting at 28 indicating that positive trend to continue. As long as AO stays positive the trend and direction of the stock is positive. In addition to Aroon Oscillator, the stock is above 50 DMA which is trending upward. Bollinger Bands are also trending up or flat. The stock is looking at next strong resistance level which is at 200 DMA around $27.
    In the same period, HZNP got EU approval for Ravicti, agreed to acquiring Crealta and started Phase I of Actimmune with PD-1 and PD-L1 and Phase III of FA continues. HZNP planned business strategy up to 2020 with a clear path. Estimate for 2015, 2016 have been raised significantly. Still some fears bother some investors but DEPO is out of the picture and ES cannot do more to damage HZNP. The company will have more positive news with Q4 earnings in the way and adding cash in its balance sheet ($100m per quarter) while spending some money in R&D.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Jan 2, 2016 4:02 PM Flag

    Part 2, continue from previous post.
    5- September 21 to September 29 was the worst HZNP performance where the price was halved in 7 trading days. HZNP went down from $32 to $16 in that period. Did HZNP fundamentals change? No, but misinformation implied a change in fundamentals. Fear consumed most investors. The fear was so high that some investors were expecting warnings and other bad news to be released for Q3 while media, DEPO and even some analysts pictured the worst scenario for HZNP.

    6- From October 20 to October 26, just in 5 trading days, 90m shares were traded while the stock recoded its lowest price of $12.86 on October 22 since early January. This was capitulation and the bottom. Meanwhile, the company didn't communicate correctly with investors while it knew that Q3 was a stellar earnings and all those fears were baseless. Instead, the company was pressing for DEPO acquisition while investors seeing it as high price, dilutions and unnecessary debt which will come with the acquisition.

    7- After capitulation, some investors got interested in HZNP again. From October 26 to November 5, the stock recovered from its lows to prices around $17. Investors were waiting for Q3 to see if implied negativity has any meaning.

    8- On November 6, Q3 earnings was released with record revenue and income. The stock gained about 20% and jumped to prices around $22. Not only the earnings was a stellar but also the outlook was raised significantly. Most investors were hoping to put an end to negativity but DEPO, ES and media were not ready to quit yet. In addition, there were some strong resistance around $22 with 50 DMA sitting around that area and trending down. The most technical change came with AO which went positive to indicate a change in direction of the stock and fortunately it stayed positive to current day except for a very short blip on December 14.

    Continue ==========

    Sentiment: Buy

  • 1- In early January, Golden Cross happened (50 DMA crossed 200 DMA). This was an indication of bullish trend in the way. Meanwhile Aroon Oscillator (AO) went positive and stayed positive until Mid May. The stock ramped from low $12 to over $30 in late April and continued to stay above $30 until late July.

    2- In Mid May, the first sign of technical weakness appeared when Aroon Oscillator (AO) went negative (AO ranges from -100 to +100, below zero means bearish and above zero means bullish. crossing zero means changing the current trend) However, the negativity was a short lived, AO went positive and the stock resumed its bullishness and continued positive trend until late July and recorded the highest price of $39.49 on July 20.

    3- After July 20, some investors decided to cash in while price was above $28. Bad news started to come from every corner. News that were baseless and they were provided by DEPO management, Hillary, media and other sources. There were a lot of fuel for negativity. Fear was high and weak hands could not handle and digest the misinformation. In early August, AO went negative indicating a confirmation of trend change from bullish to bearish. On August 24, HZNP along with the rest of the rest market recoded a large drop. HZNP broke all its support levels including 200 DMA for the first time. Although a temporarily rebound but AO stayed negative and bearish mode continued which were fueled with DEPO, media , ES and even other stocks like VRX.

    4- From August 24 to September 21, the stock tried hard to recover and it managed to go above $30 but all indicators were trending down and bearish indicator were ready to crash the stock.

    Continue with next posts======

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    DEPO and HZNP Both Down 3.56% - Inextricably Tied

    by sfvictim Dec 31, 2015 1:43 PM
    cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Dec 31, 2015 2:15 PM Flag

    May be today just because of the same sector but spread between HZNP and DEPO is getting larger and that is the way it should be since HZNP 2016 numbers are way above DEPO. This trend will continue and HZNP add to its income more and more in 2016. I am not surprised to see a day that HZNP trades twice as much as DEPO.

    Happy New Year to All.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Holy #$%$ Look at that Fire in Dubai Hotel.

    by bruno9876543 Dec 31, 2015 1:19 PM
    cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Dec 31, 2015 1:58 PM Flag

    Just a few months ago, during HAJ process, over 3000 people died from stampede in Saudi Arabia.
    Of course, Saudi government hid the real figure which was larger that what it was reported.
    But basic safety was the real cause.

  • Reply to

    Holy #$%$ Look at that Fire in Dubai Hotel.

    by bruno9876543 Dec 31, 2015 1:19 PM
    cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Dec 31, 2015 1:45 PM Flag

    Fancy building and other imported technology won't change or improve people who used to live in tents and ride camels. Safety is as poor as you can imagine. People have to be taught the basics like eating with fork and spoon instead of hands and other teaching before given them luxury lifestyle who do not know how to use it.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • cash_is_king_now by cash_is_king_now Dec 31, 2015 1:15 PM Flag

    It is part of the game. HZNP usually drops the last day of each month and gains on beginning of the month.
    Today is an special day since it is end of the month, end of the quarter and end of the year.
    Investors are closing their books. We may see recovery before the close.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • cash_is_king_now by cash_is_king_now Dec 31, 2015 10:50 AM Flag

    The stock has been trading above Mid BB and close to upper BB in past 2 weeks. I am surprised that price hit the upper BB only once. I think the market puts pressure on all stocks but HZNP will do what it supposed to do and it will hit upper BB around $23 a few times in coming days before heading for next level.
    In addition, 50 DMA ($19.62) and Mid BB ($20.86) are trending up and they provide some good supports.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Dec 28, 2015 3:36 PM Flag

    Well, forget about any price below $21 for time being. The best hope for your trade is around mid BB($20.70) if you get lucky and the market drops something like 300 points. However, the potential for higher prices outweighs lower prices.

    Today, it's your best and probably last chance to buy in mid $21s and then exit in mid $22s if you like to trade HZNP.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cash_is_king_now by cash_is_king_now Dec 28, 2015 2:54 PM Flag

    HZNP is trading above Mid BB ($20.77) which acts as a good support. Next support is 50 DAM ($19.36) which is trending up.
    HZNP will go back up to touch upper BB at $22.70 again in coming days since this is the overall trend.

    So, the stock may fluctuate some but the trend is up and we will see higher high and higher low in coming days and weeks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cash_is_king_now by cash_is_king_now Dec 24, 2015 10:13 AM Flag

    Upper BB moved higher just a little but still flat at $22.80. This is a resistance for time being.
    The stock tends to stay close to upper band.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Watch for tomorrow

    by johnny_the_investor Dec 22, 2015 3:51 PM
    cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Dec 23, 2015 1:10 PM Flag

    ****How will the 5% dream that you have help you. I guess that will be life changing for you(lol)****
    I think Johnny said over 5%. HZNP is up over 7% now. A very good call when some traders were selling their shares cheap. This may be short covering for purpose of taxes.

  • cash_is_king_now by cash_is_king_now Dec 23, 2015 11:35 AM Flag

    Upper BB is sitting at $22.74 and the stock needs to touch and break it to open the band.
    After trading around Upper BB, the stock may get a break before next leg up.

  • cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Dec 22, 2015 2:10 PM Flag

    Well, debt is the problem and it is not reflected here.

  • Reply to

    Detached from HZNP

    by cash_is_king_now Dec 22, 2015 1:10 PM
    cash_is_king_now cash_is_king_now Dec 22, 2015 2:07 PM Flag

    Lets assume PE of 10 for 2016 income.
    DEPO should be $1.71 * 10 = $17.10
    HZNP should be $2.35 * 10 = $23.50

    Of course, HZNP has other advantages and also potential to raise 2016 much higher than current one.

  • cash_is_king_now by cash_is_king_now Dec 22, 2015 1:26 PM Flag

    with income of $2.35 per share, at PE of 10 which is the most conservative one for a growth company, the price should be $23.50 at this point. Considering this measure, the stock has potential to push higher by $2.5 per share in near future without considering other factors that may add even more to HZNP income.
    DEPO is dropping in past 2 days to reflect its 2016 income which is $1.71. In fact, giving PE of 10, DEPO should be at price of $17.10 and HZNP at $23.50.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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