How long will it stay at these depressed prices?
HERO keeps executing but PPS has pushed down deeply.
It is about time to jump up and burn some shorts.
WTI at almost $95, a gain over $3 in past few days. Demand for oil will be more than the increase in production and the recent low oil prices was a pause for buyers to take advantage of the opportunity.
We will hear it soon.
I think it has been over done. There are many reasons for sector recovery. The main is the sector rotation. Q1 has been a strong seasonal for drillers. Now add many other factors such as low PE and PEG for most or all companies in the sector, relatively high oil prices, high book values...
So, while the indexes are at their highest and some stocks are trading at bubble PEs, the companies in this sector have been pushed to oversold territory. The market will adjust itself finally.
Sector analysts have been downgrading the sector since mid last year. There are a few slow-pocks that tried to say "me too" recently with their downgrade. This usually signals the end of move down.
Soon the crowd will decide that the feared scenario is not playing out and they will bid the sector stocks up quickly and most stocks will the most in just 3 to 4 trading days.
HERO has become one of my favorite since it is doing much better than other stocks in the sector. Its daily rates are up, better position with its contracts, over 40% revenue growth, higher book valve, over tripled the income and many other positive things.
Some say Vimovo rev was going down and I say dude AZN pulled all reps working on Vimovo as soon as it heard Pozen intention and before the deal with HZNP was announced.
Vimovo rev was $23 m in previous quarter and HZNP can doubled it by early 2015. That means $200 m per year only from Vemovo. So, just calculate income from Vimovo and current hznp prices are cheap dirt.
Don't forget to have a beer with your pepcid ibuprofen before calling the day.
Also, why pay high price for Celebrex while you can take Aspirin or Tylenol?
After all, when Duexis needed FDA approval? The message board doctors probably recommend snake oil for any pain, cancer...
Q4 net income may be -$.20 to -$.50 per share. However, most will be paper loss and it won't affect HZNP balance sheet.
I said it so investors do not put high expectation on Q4. The only thing I am looking for is the revenue and how high the sale was for each drug.
Startup pharma companies can be very boring. However, HZNP is a bit different. It won't wait for years to develop a drug and then battle with FDA for a few more years to get approval. HZNP goes right to money making by commercializing drugs that already have passed development and FDA. Risk is much lower although rewards may not be as great as a few that are successful.
I am expecting one or two more drugs will be added to HZNP drug basket in 2014. I think each drug addition bump the price by $2 minimum. If needed, HZNP will do another higher note too and replace the current one.
I am not passing a merger too. HZNP may merge with another pharma company that has a few drugs but weaker marketing.
You are saying: "So anyone on this board care to be honest with me. You walk into your doc's office complaining of OA or RA. Doc says to you, I can prescribe you generic ibuprofen and famotidine which might set you back $30-40 a month, but requires popping 5 pills a day versus 3, OR I can prescribe you a combo pill that is no better for your condition, but will set you back over $700 a month".
If a doctor recommends a generic ibuprofen and famotidine blindly then he should lose his license to practice since different dosages may kill or injure patients.
In one of the past CC, CEO indicated that the company is working with POZN/AZN to expand Vimovo with different dosanges and combination as I understoos it. Remember that HZNP is a late stage drug developer. Again, as I undestand it, it may acquire drugs that have been approved in Europe or Japan and then get FDA approval here in US. I do not think anything else in its pipeline.
In my opinion, HZNP is taking lower risk to go after drugs that either approved by FDA or have high chance of approval. Drug development is very costly but very rewarding if a good one is developed.
It took years and a lot of money for HZNP to develop and to get approval of its 2 drugs. Now it is on new path to acquire and market developed drugs.
As I read some posts by Mike, Post, Med and others I can tell you the following
1- Management is working hard to create new strategy that is based on unique marketing, new products purchase and other things that have worked well so far.
2- As November of this year, debt with interest rate of 17% was dumped and replaced with a convertible note at interest rate of 5%.
3- As November, cash position was $78 M and zero debt (for not considering $150 convertible note as debt).
4- The company has predicted that it will be positive cash flow and positive income in 2014. Generating cash instead of burning it is a positive factor and lets the company hand open for purchasing new products and growing the company.
5- Company's CEO has indicated that HZNP will acquire more products to utilize its marketing system and strategy.
6- HZNP revenue has grown significantly quarter over quarter and will be up significantly in 2014.
There are a few more positive news line the stock was added to biotech index, insiders purchase...
S0, what else an investor wants for his money? An investor will be rewarded hugely compare to a small risk that he/she may take.